NFL Grind Down: Week 7 - Page Three

by ohnjz Last Updated 2014-10-19 06:38:26

Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars

Cleveland Browns						Jacksonville Jaguars
Sun – 1:00 PM						EverBank Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-5.5	45	25.25				5.5	45	19.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	26.8	9	17	1		Offense	13.5	32	28	31
Defense	13.5	32	28	31		Defense	26.8	9	17	1
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Jacksonville Jaguars	28	30	20	29		Cleveland Browns	20	23	21	16
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Austin	26	18	2	198		Shorts
Hawkins	43	24	0	271		Lee	16	10	0	99
Benjamin	13	9	3	148		Robinson	46	30	0	311
Cameron	20	9	1	205		Harbor	16	14	1	182

Quick Grind

•Target the Browns running game
•TE Jordan Cameron is back
•Jaguars make good GPP targets

Cleveland Browns

RB Ben Tate

Last week I hyped Tate up as a high upside option, and he punched in 2 TDs to go along with 78 yards on the ground. Tate has gone 22-123-0 and 25-78-2 since returning from injury; with 20+ carries per week, along with goal-line work, Tate will be an excellent DFS option (until he gets hurt again of course). Tate draws a tasty matchup this week as his offensive line, graded as the 4th-best run-blocking unit on PFF, meets a Jaguars team that grades the 7th-worst in run defense. The Jags poor run D grade translates directly to DFS, as the Jags have also allowed the 3rd-most FPPG to RBs. With immense supply, solid price points across the industry, and an awesome matchup in his favor, Tate makes for a strong #1 RB play this week.

TE Jordan Cameron

Cameron finally arrived last week, turning just 3 catches into 102 yards and a TD. His price seems to have adjusted substantially where he was cheap, but from here on out Cameron will again be among the top tier TEs every week. Cameron’s ascension should continue this week against the Jags, who allow both the 4th-most FPPG and 4th-most receiving yards per game to TEs. The Jags have tightened up of late, after allowing at least 6-92-1 for the first 3 weeks of the season, but their TE coverage remains exploitable. Target Cameron as a top-3 TE option this week.

RB Isaiah Crowell

If you’re looking for a punt RB in GPPs, consider Crowell, who has elite running talent but is blocked from starter’s volume by Ben Tate. Crowell turned about a third of the total RB carries into 11-77-1 last week, though he fumbled at least three times in the process. Against a remarkably porous Jags run defense, you could do much worse than Crowell as a punt RB in a GPP.

WR Andrew Hawkins

Hawkins had 0 catches for 0 yards last week… and that is not a typo. Granted, Hawkins isn’t exactly a superstar talent, and game flow was decidedly working against him last week, but perhaps Hawkins consistency should be reevaluated, even on full PPR sites. I’m not sure the Browns will need to throw much this week either, so use caution employing Hawkins.

Jacksonville Jaguars

WR Cecil Shorts

Shorts was inactive in Week 5 but returned last week and was welcomed by a team-high 16 targets that he parlayed into 10 catches and 103 yards. It seems clear the Bortles favors Shorts just as Chad Henne did, and will likely feature him until he gets hurt again. Shorts should be a strong full PPR play as your #3 WR.

WR Allen Robinson

Most people have no reason to stay updated on the Jags, so I’m going to include my breakdown of Robinson from last week as a refresher: “Robinson is being fed like a true #1 WR, racking up 11 targets in Week 5 and hauling in 5 of them for 51 yards. The Jags are clearly trying to leverage Robinson’s athleticism and possible open-field talent as if he were Cordarrelle Patterson, so all his work is coming on short throws. It’s only lead to ‘meh’ results, and I’m hoping that as the Jags loosen the reins on Bortles, Robinson will be sent on deeper routes as well. I’ve heard and read multiple accounts of how excited Jags HC Gus Bradley seemed when talking about Robinson, and how clear to outsiders it was that the coaches thought Robinson was their guy. He’s going to be given every opportunity to succeed, so I don’t think the supply lets up at all. It’s only a matter of time before it pays off.”

Robinson’s supply and usage continued last week, as he turned 9 targets into 8 catches for 68 yards. Still lots of screens, but they give Robinson a sneaky floor on full PPR sites. Robinson should see a lot of CB Buster Skrine this week, who is probably still smoldering from his frequent burning in 2013. It’s a strong matchup for Robinson, especially if the coaching staff lets him run some deeper routes. Robinson is a deeper GPP option who is most useful on full PPR sites.

QB Blake Bortles

After a horrendous Week 5 I called for a Bortles bounce-back against a lackluster Titans defense in Week 6, and Bortles delivered 336-1-1 passing and 38 yards rushing for an impressive 23.24 DK points. He’s still throwing an awful lot of underneath, dink-n-dunk BS, and is also limited by the complete lack of a complementary run game (Bortles’ 38 rushing yards led the Jags in rushing this week)… but he remains dirt cheap, and will be trailing (i.e. throwing) in most games. This week Bortles faces the surprisingly winning Browns. Despite their winning ways, the Browns sport an exploitable CB corps, which could fuel another reasonable outing from Bortles. He’s on the punt QB radar in GPPs.

RB Storm Johnson

Ok, so it wasn’t much of a Storm last week after all. Johnson started quick with a TD and about 9 touches in the first half last week, but ended with just 11 total touches and a measly 21 rushing yards. We found out earlier in the week that the Jags had Storm on a 10-carry ‘pitch count’, so to speak, which would have been awfully nice to know ahead of time. The big question this week is if Storm will move beyond his 10 carries. He’s been splitting 1st-team reps, which is concerning. The matchup however is again inviting, with Cleveland allowing 118.2 rushing yards per game to RBs, the 4th-worst mark in the NFL. The FORECAST for Storm isn’t nearly as favorable given his potential volume limitations, but he is still an option as a salary relief RB.

TE Clay Harbor

Harbor had a surprisingly strong Week 6, reeling in a long TD on his way to 3-91-1. Don’t expect regular long TDs, but do note that Harbor does have sneaky athleticism and can beat man coverage. The Browns are middle-of-the-pack vs TEs, and Harbor remains a punt option at TE.

Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams

Seattle Seahawks						St. Louis Rams
Sun – 1:00 PM						Edward Jones Dome
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-6.5	43.5	25				6.5	43.5	18.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	26.6	12	23	2		Offense	20.2	24	16	20
Defense	20.2	24	16	20		Defense	26.6	12	23	2
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
St. Louis Rams	24	5	29	5		Seattle Seahawks	22	11	14	30
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Harvin	27	22	0	133		Britt	17	9	1	154
Baldwin	24	16	0	187		Quick	31	21	3	322
Kearse	19	11	1	168		Austin	6	5	0	67
Willson	11	6	0	40		Cook	31	19	0	221

Quick Grind

•Low total and limited DFS options
•Target Marshawn Lynch and Russell Wilson
•Avoid the Rams

Seattle Seahawks

RB Marshawn Lynch

SQUEAKY WHEEL ALERT:

After Marshawn got just 10 carries last week (which he admirably turned into 61 yards), OC Darrel Bevell said verbatim ‘I have to do a better job of giving him the ball’. Couple that with the 106 rushing yards the Rams are allowing per game, and you have a potent recipe for Skittles this week.

QB Russell Wilson

Naturally a week after Wilson went Mike Vick-era Madden on the Redskins, he ran for over 100 less yards vs the Cowboys. It was a concerning turn around, but was more a result of the Cowboys offensive control rather than dominance by their defense. I expect Wilson to easily navigate the Rams defense this week. He’s a top 10 QB play.

WR Jermaine Kearse or Doug Baldwin

Everyone will be expecting one of these guys to magically step up now that Percy Harvin has been shipped to the Jets. I think the more realistic scenario is that both get a slight bump. Kearse is more of a big play, jump-ball type, as exemplified by his 53 yard catch and not much else last week. Baldwin is extremely underrated, but hasn’t been very useful to us in DFS as he is more of a natural slot guy rather than outside WR. Hopefully Harvin’s departure allows him to reclaim his old slot gig where he can thrive and provide Russell Wilson a consistent chain-mover at WR. Neither of these guys are more than a GPP play until we see how their usage will be impacted post-Percy.

St. Louis Rams

WR Brian Quick

Quick only got 4 targets last week vs the 49ers, as his QB really struggled to get anything going. It shouldn’t be any easier for quick this week against the Seahawks, though he may benefit from avoiding Richard Sherman’s side of the field, and instead facing a replacement level corner (usual #2 CB Byron Maxwell is out with an injury). He’s one of the riskiest receiver plays of the week.

RB Zac Stacy

I know, I know, Stacy sucked last week vs the Niners, #2 RB Benny Cunningham got a goal-line score, and rookie Tre Mason debuted and looked better than both of them. None of this shapes up well for Stacy’s role in the offense. But the Rams at least appear committed to a creative high-volume running attack, and Stacy rushed for 134 vs the Hawks in one of their games last season. Of course, he followed that up with 15 yards in their rematch…

Basically the Rams only hope is if Stacy and their running game turn back the clock to 2013. It’s a longshot, but what other Rams am I supposed to write about?

Atlanta Falcons at Baltimore Ravens

Atlanta Falcons						Baltimore Ravens
Sun – 1:00 PM						M&T Bank Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		7	49.5	21.25				-7	49.5	28.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	27.3	5	5	14		Offense	27.3	5	7	7
Defense	27.3	5	7	7		Defense	27.3	5	5	14
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Baltimore Ravens	12	3	28	7		Atlanta Falcons	18	32	18	2
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Jones	69	44	3	620		Smith	34	15	3	227
White	39	19	2	253		Smith	55	35	4	573
Douglas	17	12	1	121		Brown	7	4	0	46
Toilolo	21	11	1	103		Daniels	27	21	2	217

Quick Grind

•Vegas suggests Baltimore will do lots of scoring
•Be careful targeting the Falcons

Atlanta Falcons

WR Julio Jones

After a dominant performance in Week 5, Julio struggled mightily with the physical Bears defense last week, corralling just 4 of hs 12 targets for 68 yards. Post-game reports claim that Julio was dragging his injury prone foot in the locker room, suggesting he may have aggravated it during the game. Obviously any sign of re-injury with Julio is extremely concerning, especially in the face of an already concerning matchup with Ravens emerging shutdown corner Jimmy Smith. After his struggles against a physical Bears secondary, Jones will not enjoy facing Smith and the Ravens; they will completely demolish what’s left of the Falcons offensive line and limit Julio’s opportunities downfield. Julio is an elite WR, but with health concerns and the Falcons recent struggles to adapt to their garbage offensive line, we should temper our expectations for Julio this week.

WR Roddy White

I’m not sure the Falcons tattered offensive line can support anything other than a quick passing attack, and it seems that Roddy has taken a permanent backseat to Julio because of it. Against a firm Ravens pass D, I would be hesitant to roster Roddy, even considering his plummeting price on some sites.

QB Matt Ryan

Last week I worried how Matt Ryan would cope behind his hodgepodge line, and the Bears were able to completely disrupt the Falcons passing game both at the throw point and catch point. Now Ryan gets to face the NFL’s top-graded pass-rush… I doubt that will end well. There will undoubtedly be value in the Falcon’s based on their ownership %, but I can’t recommend them against this defense.

RB Antone Smith

He scored a long TD again. But this time, Antone Smith also started to see the additional touches we’ve been hoping for. Interestingly they mostly came in the passing game, with Smith even split wide on a few plays. Unfortunately Smith’s big play success is slowly being built into his price, but with these added touches there’s still value to be had on certain sites. He is, as always, an electric big play threat who can’t help but score long TDs.

Devin Hester

Hester was an afterthought in Week 6 (1-23), but remains a matchup-specific punt WR in GPPs due to his big-play potential on both offense and special teams.

RB Steven Jackson

Jackson is a remarkable bore. His TD dependency, lack of usage in the passing game, and nonexistent upside makes him an unappealing option in DFS right now.

Baltimore Ravens

RB Justin Forsett

Forsett has enjoyed quite the ascent the past few weeks, supplementing his somewhat limited carry volume with excellence in the passing game. Last week however, Forsett cranked out 14-111 on the ground and wasn’t even needed in the passing game as the Ravens stomped the Bucs with ease. This week Forsett gets the friendliest RB matchup in the NFL – the Falcons not only allow the most FPPG to RBs (32.6), they allow a full 5 points more than the 2nd-worst team. Recall that last week Matt Forte dropped 157 total yards, 10 catches, and 2 TDs on this defense for a crazy 37.7 DK points. Forsett won’t replicate that performance but should perform well above his weekly expectation, and is a sneaky #1 RB on full PPR sites this week.

WR Steve Smith

Smith got right back to his “I’m Old and Pissed Off” World Tour last week, dropping 5-110-1 on the mostly helpless Bucs defense. He’ll face a Falcons secondary that allowed nearly 250 combined yards to the Bears Twin Towers last week. He’s a top-15 WR option against his familiar NFC South foes.

WR Torrey Smith

Torrey capitalized on his pathetic matchup last week, racking up 4-51-2 and killing the Bucs with his slant routes. I do worry that Week 6 will go down as one of Torrey’s top performances of 2014, and best for a while, but against this week Falcons secondary there’s always chance he could have a second straight strong game. He makes a reasonable GPP WR this week.

TE Owen Daniels

Daniels had a quiet Week 6 (2 catches for 34 yards) and dropped a TD, and now faces a Falcons defense that allows the 2nd-fewest FPPG to TEs. The Falcons stinginess to TEs is more a result of teams targeting their weakness to everything else rather than any exceptional TE coverage per se. Still, I would target the Ravens WRs over Daniels this week.

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