NFL Grind Down: Week 8

by ohnjz Last Updated 2014-10-29 15:01:29

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.

Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers

Seattle Seahawks						Carolina Panthers
Sun – 1:00 PM						Bank of America Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-4.5	44.5	24.5				4.5	44.5	20
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	26.5	8	19	1		Offense	22.6	16	9	27
Defense	22.6	16	9	27		Defense	26.5	8	19	1
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Carolina Panthers	27	31	28	4		Seattle Seahawks	21	13	11	30
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Baldwin	35	23	1	310		Benjamin	61	34	5	477
Kearse	26	14	1	218		Cotchery	37	23	0	283
Lockette	6	4	2	85		Avant	33	19	1	185
Willson	11	6	0	40		Olsen	59	41	5	493

Quick Grind

•Modest total with Vegas showing faith in the Seahawks on the road
•Monster upside QB showdown
•Target the Seahawks vs the declawed Panthers defense

Seattle Seahawks

QB Russell Wilson

I think Russell Wilson may have transgressed the Geneva Convention with the atrocities he committed on the Rams defense last week, stacking up 313 yards and 2 TDs through the air and piling on another 106 yards and a TD on the ground. Yes, ladies and gentlemen, Wilson hit the DK double bonus (300+ passing/100+ rushing). At long last, we’re seeing Russell Wilson’s GPP-winning upside on a semi-regular basis, which is great for me because it means I don’t have to keep insisting that Wilson has a skillset that’s being locked up by conservative playcalling. Turns out a few designed runs, and the greenlight to scramble after the first few reads are all RW needed.

This week Wilson faces perhaps the most disappointing defense of 2014. I try to reuse a joke about the Panthers D being DECLAWED at least once a week… but this group has been spayed, neutered, and fully shaved as well at this point. They’ve allowed 2 or more passing TDs in all but 1 game this season, and either 300 yards or 3 TDs for the past 4 weeks. As I mention every week, with no consistent pass-rush, the Panthers embarrassing secondary is continually exposed. There’s just nothing here to suggest that the Panthers can slow down Russ and the Hawks at all – so Wilson’s upside is only limited by the game plan and number of designed runs he gets. Fade him in GPPs at your own risk.

RB Marshawn Lynch

Marshawn was back up to 18 carries last week (just slightly under his 2013 average), though he was only able to parlay them into 53 yards. But again, box score readers miss out on the truth – Lynch had an additional 33 yards and a TD called back by penalties. A 20-86-1 line isn’t elite, but we certainly wouldn’t be worrying this week if those runs had held up. This week Lynch draws a get-well matchup that is becoming more and more obvious with each passing pathetic week: the Panthers are allowing 121.4 rushing yards per game (4th-most in the NFL) and the 2nd-most FPPG to RBs. Marshawn is a pretty clear top-5 option based on his matchup, but I don’t think his ownership will reflect it.

WR Doug Baldwin

I’m really happy the incredibly underrated Baldwin is getting his moment in the sun thanks to last week’s explosive 7-123-1 performance. Though we shouldn’t anticipate such bizarre game scripts often for the Seahawks, Baldwin will remain a consistent full-PPR option as the chain-moving engine of the Hawks passing attack. Baldwin’s matchup this week is kind of mysterious. I’m not sure how else to describe it, since the Panthers were so impressed by their slot coverage last week that they CUT the guy doing it. With the Panthers secondary banged up as it is, I assume they’ll be stuck with either another out-of-position option, or someone limited by injury. It’s an inviting situation to attack with Baldwin, who is still a strong value on most sites. So long as the Seahawks don’t shut the offense down early because they’re stomping, Baldwin should be a solid full PPR WR this week.

Carolina Panthers

QB Cam Newton

Do you like patterns? Well you’re in luck, because it seems that Cam and Russell Wilson are both alternating completely absurd performances with lackluster ones, and are perfectly out of phase with each other:

I didn’t take the SAT, but it seems the data CLEARLY SHOWS a trend that suggests Cam is due to go off this week. Unfortunately that’s about the only support Cam will get as a play this week, as the health of his offensive line and the difficulty of his matchup are concerning. Last week, Cam struggled against a sneaky-tough Packers pass-defense, and the horrid Panthers pass-blocking continued to bog down the offense. The Panthers line has plummeted to the 5th-worst pass-blocking grade on PFF, and also lost their starting LT last week. Cam will potentially have an UDFA at LT this week… which could be a disaster, even against a struggling Seahawks pass-rush. After the Hawks were shockingly upset last week, I would be a little worried about a tenacious defensive rebound against this struggling Panthers offense. Cam will always be in consideration for GPPs, but there’s an awful lot that could go wrong for him this week.

WR Kelvin Benjamin

Benjamin ended up playing last week, but didn’t have much opportunity with the offense struggling all game. He did haul in another TD to salvage his day, finishing 3-61-1. There is some extra risk in this one in the possibility that Richard Sherman might resort to shadow coverage given injuries to several Hawks CB, including #2 CB Byron Maxwell, who is out. Sherman has been set loose on occasion when injuries have knocked out his usual CB partner, and this is a situation where it would make an awful lot of sense for the Hawks to attempt to lock down Benjamin and force the basically retired Jericho Cotchery and Jason Avant to beat them. The Hawks could also just play sides with their CBs, but the threat of Sherman, a big-hitting secondary coupled with Benjamin’s recent concussion, and the likely struggle of the Panthers offensive line, make Benjamin a risky play this week.

TE Greg Olsen

I promise I’ll give up on the Greg Olsen Chart’O’Consistency eventually… but not until Olsen actually lets us down. That certainly wasn’t the case last week, where I called for him to be a top-3 option despite a seemingly tough matchup, and the zone-buster cracked open yet another defense, to the tune of 8 catches for 105 yards. This week Olsen shapes up as my favorite Panthers play, due to the string of success the TE position has found against the Legion of Boom. The Hawks allow the 3rd-most FPPG to TEs, fueled largely by them allowing the most TDs to the position as well. Of course, Antonio Gates’ 3 TDs in Week 2 still weigh heavily in this ranking, but the Hawks have actually given up a whopping 5 TDs since then, allowing 2 TDs in 2 separate games. And it’s not just elite TEs that are touching them up, either – fantasy nobodies Jacob Tamme, Gavin Escobar, and Lance Kendricks have all tallied TDs against the Seahawks D this season. Given the Seahawks struggles vs any and all TEs, and Cam Newton’s somewhat sad reliance on Greg Olsen to keep the Panthers offense alive, Olsen makes for a strong option this week.

Other Panthers

At some point there’s just nothing left to make fun of in the Panthers backfield – they just suck. The Hawks allow just 80 rushing yards per game, so I wouldn’t recommend Jon Stewart this week. Also avoid the dusty old Panthers possession WRs

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals

Baltimore Ravens						Cincinnati Bengals
Sun – 1:00 PM						Paul Brown Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		1.5	46	22.25				-1.5	46	23.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	27.6	6	8	6		Offense	22.3	19	24	8
Defense	22.3	19	24	8		Defense	27.6	6	8	6
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Cincinnati Bengals	24	20	6	32		Baltimore Ravens	7	3	27	3
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Smith	39	18	4	308		Green	25	17	2	314
Smith	60	38	4	640		Sanu	50	31	3	408
Brown	7	4	0	46		Tate	17	11	1	119
Daniels	36	27	3	275		Gresham	32	24	0	177

Quick Grind

•Sneaky high total for a typical AFC North battle?
•Temper expectations for Bengals vs tough Ravens D
•Owen Daniels injury means it’s Crockett Gillmore time!

Baltimore Ravens

RB Justin Forsett

Forsett continues to carry the mail for the Ravens, slicing up the Falcons last week for 95 yards on 23 carries. He was a 0 in the passing game, and didn’t get the TD, which should dump many off his bandwagon this week. The Bengals are among the crowd of once-dominant defenses that are collapsing in 2014. You might be surprised to see the Bengals are allowing the 8th-most rushing yards and the 13th-most FPPG to RBs. It’s a sneaky strong matchup for Forsett, such that the Raven shouldn’t see a surge in his ownership this week. He’s a strong #2 RB option.

WR Steve Smith

Like Cam Newton, Steve Smith has been alternating Jekkyl and Hyde game logs. His last 4 weeks: 7-139-2; 5-34-0; 5-110-1; 3-67-0. At first I thought Smith’s performances might be correlated with in-game altercations or outbursts, but Smith was plenty feisty with the Falcons DBs last week, and still only managed 3 catches for 67 yards. Hopefully his every-other-week pattern continues this week against an exploitable Bengals secondary that is every bit as old as Smith is. Unlike the aging Bengals CBs though, Smith seems plenty quick this season, and should win the Dinosaur Battle this week. He certainly did back in week one (7-118-1). Smith is a mid-range #2 WR option this week.

WR Torrey Smith

The impending dud from Torrey Smith draws near, but will it come this week? Torrey simply isn’t getting the target volume nor route featuring to be expected to produce at an acceptable DFS level, and any price increase as a result of his past few solid performances likely squeezes the value out of him. There’s a chance he gets behind the old Bengals CBs this week, but I would put my eggs in a more reliable basket. Torrey is an GPP-only #3 WR.

TE Crockett Gillmore

KEY INJURY ALERT: TE OWEN DANIELS OUT

With Owen Daniels out due to a knee scope, TE Crockett Gilmore will take his place in the offense (in theory). Gilmore deserves mention because this matchup is a TE goldmine, as the Bengals allow 8-101+ on average to TEs each week. As you might imagine, this is the worst mark in the NFL. This is as high-upside a matchup as Gilmore could hope for.

Cincinnati Bengals

Key Injury Alert: WR AJ Green is Doubtful for Week 8

RB Gio Bernard

Gio was completely stoned last week by… the Colts? Not exactly a fearsome defense, but the entire Bengals offense just couldn’t get anything going. The Bengals OL again found no traction, which does not bode well this week against the Ravens, who have the 5th-highest run defense grade on PFF, and allow the 3rd-fewest FPPG to RBs. The onus of the offense will fall on Bernard’s shoulders (or legs), but unless he rips off another long TD, I don’t see him reaching his ceiling this week. Given his price, it’s probably best to look elsewhere for your #1 RB this week.

WR Mohamed Sanu

When the QB throws for 126 yards, it’s not likely the WRs have much to show for it. And Sanu felt the effects of a defense that sold out to stop him last week, with the Colts spotlight coverage limiting the bruising but athletically limited Sanu to just 3 catches for 54 yards. With AJ Green’s status for the week officially Doubtful, we need to be especially careful targeting Sanu this week. The Ravens will undoubtedly use CB Jimmy Smith in shadow coverage on Sanu if Green can’t go. I bring Smith up every week because he is the real deal – any WR in his coverage becomes an especially risky play. Keep an eye on Green’s health, and look elsewhere at WR if Sanu is on his own again this week.

RB Jeremy Hill

While I’m not a fan of the matchup, it’s worth noting that Hill has seen his price tumble to just $3300 (300 above minimum) on DK. The Bengals will need to commit to grinding the run to have any shot vs this Ravens defense, and Hill has punched in a TD in 3 of the past 5 weeks.

NFL Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2