NFL Grind Down: Week 8 - Page Four

by ohnjz Last Updated 2014-10-26 02:38:44

Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals

Philadelphia Eagles						Arizona Cardinals
Sun – 4:05 PM						Univ. of Phoenix Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		2.5	48	22.75				-2.5	48	25.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	30.5	3	16	14		Offense	23.3	14	17	28
Defense	23.3	14	17	28		Defense	30.5	3	16	14
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Arizona Cardinals	20	4	30	26		Philadelphia Eagles	28	19	25	6
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Maclin	60	27	4	445		Fitzgerald	39	23	1	283
Cooper	37	24	1	217		Floyd	39	19	2	353
Matthews	37	23	2	226		Brown	33	17	3	197
Celek	19	10	0	75		Carlson	20	14	0	149

Quick Grind

•Gary Oldman Seal of Approval: Target Everyone!
•Both pass defenses can be exploited

Philadelphia Eagles

WR Jeremy Maclin

Maclin leads the Eagles in targets by 23 and has a whopping 60 total. It’s this high volume supply that makes him a near-elite WR play every single week. The matchup ensures Maclin’s elite status this week: the Cardinals allow the 3rd most FPPG to WRs, and have been absolutely torched on the outside this season. I think Maclin has the skillset to whip the struggling Patrick Peterson this week. Maclin is a strong #1 WR that gets even more of bump on full PPR sites.

QB Nick Foles

Foles should be the catalyst for an offensive explosion against the Cardinals this week. They already allow the 3rd-most passing yards per game, and matchup horribly with Foles’ top two receiving weapons. He’s an excellent stack target this week.

TE Zach Ertz

Ertz exploded vs this Cardinals defense last season, and not much has changed for either the Eagles passing attack, or the Cardinals ineptitude vs the TE (allowing the 7th-most FPPG). This one’s simple: Ertz is a high-upside TE play this week

RB LeSean McCoy

McCoy draws a tougher matchup than his brothers in the passing game, but faces a depleted Cardinals defense that should start leaking soon. Both their paltry 58.2 rushing yards allowed per game, and 4th-fewest FPPG to RBs should regress as soon as this week. McCoy has a lower floor than usual this week, but is still an ideal #2 RB.

Misfit Toys

RB Darren Sproles is the ultimate GPP RB on full PPR sites. He can get you next to nothing, or carry you to cashing. Your weekly Riley Cooper update: still just a guy that likes country music.

Arizona Cardinals

RB Andre Ellington

Last week’s cover boy, Andre Ellington churned out 160 total yards and a TD-worth of catches (6, duh) in his dismantling of the Raiders. Ellington will face a much stiffer test this week vs an Eagles squad that, unlike the Raiders, isn’t the absolute worst run defense (and overall defense) in the NFL. On the contrary, although the Eagles allow the 14th-most FPPG to RBs, they also grade out as the 8th-best team in run defense on PFF (they were sneaky vs the run last year as well). I anticipate Ellington’s YPC to dip a bit this week but for him to compensate with increased work and efficiency in the passing game. On full PPR sites the stiff rushing matchup won’t stop him from being a solid #2 RB this week.

WR Michael Floyd

Floyd has had 47 yards and a TD in back-to-back games since Palmer has returned from injury, and should take another step forward this week against the immensely horrible outside CBs for the Eagles (I’m looking at you, Cary Williams). The Eagles allow the 8th-ost FPPG to WRs thanks mainly to their outside coverage, and I expect Palmer and Floyd to hook up on multiple chunk plays this week. Floyd is a high-upside #2 WR play this week.

WR Larry Fitzgerald

As I’ve mentioned here before, I’m not a fan of targeting slot receivers vs the Eagles as their top DB (Brandon Boykin) is curiously used solely in slot coverage. So, I would look to Floyd over Fitz in this particular matchup.

QB Carson Palmer

Palmer dropped a serviceable 253-2-1 line on the Raiders last week. I expect even more fireworks this week as the Cards try to keep pace with the frenetic Eagles offense. QBs are benefiting immensely from this matchup as the Eagles allow the 5th-most FPPG to the position. Palmer will be throwing and scoring often and is a sneaky top-10 QB play this week.

John Brown

Like Floyd, Brown has tallied 2 encouraging and similar lines since Palmer has returned (4-43, and 2-41). It’s only a matter of time before Palmer finds Brown streaking downfield again.. He’s a risk/reward GPP option.

Oakland Raiders at Cleveland Browns

Oakland Raiders						Cleveland Browns
Sun – 4:25 PM						FirstEnergy Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		7	43	18				-7	43	25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	15.3	31	27	32		Offense	23.3	14	23	3
Defense	23.3	14	23	3		Defense	15.3	31	27	32
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Cleveland Browns	15	26	19	13		Oakland Raiders	19	30	10	15
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Jones	43	30	3	363		Austin	34	21	2	251
Holmes	34	18	3	303		Hawkins	52	29	0	382
Moore	22	10	0	82		Benjamin	17	9	3	148
Ausberry	4	2	0	14		Cameron	26	10	1	210

Quick Grind

•Give last week’s disappointments another chance!
•Both run defenses are atrocious!

Oakland Raiders

WR Andre Holmes

The DFS Circle of Life has been in full effect with Andre Holmes the last few weeks:

• 1) Player X is low owned and goes off – Andre Holmes Week 6 (4-121-2)
• 2) Hordes flock to Player X… Player X struggles – Andre Holmes Week 7 (3-34-0)
• 3) Hordes now abandon Player X despite nothing really changing — Andre Holmes Week 8 ????

Nothing has changed about Holmes through this whole process. He’s still an incredible physical talent. He has a big-armed QB who is a willing vertical passer. And he also struggles with drops. Yet after a surge in his ownership after Week 6, most everyone has abandoned ship after his Raider-like 3-34 last week. The box score readers miss the fact that Holmes had a trademark drop on one target, and was close to hitting a huge play on his other target. He’s perceived drastically differently if those plays hit. But thankful they didn’t, so we can take a shot on Holmes this week against an absysmmal combination of corners, and have a minute group of people along for the ride with us. Holmes will face one of 2013’s top burn victims, Buster Skrine. Skrine allowed an NFL-high (tied) 9 TDs last season, and has already given up another 5 so far in 2014. He is a big play waiting to happen. And so is Andre Holmes. Holmes is also an excellent GPP WR this week.

WR James Jones

James Jones again led the Raiders in targets but wasn’t able to translate that into solid production, hauling in just 4 of 8 targets for 35 yards. Most of this was due to Carr’s inaccuracy, as Jones put himself in a position to make plays… the ball just didn’t reach him. Unfortunately I don’t like Jones’ prospects this week either, as he’ll primarily see CB Joe Haden in coverage. Yes, Haden has struggled… a lot. But it’s still Joe Haden – he has the talent to shut down nearly any WR. I think Jones is a classic example of the type of WR that Haden should handle with ease. I would look elsewhere for low owned FLEX WRs this week.

RB Darren McFadden

McFadden salvaged an otherwise forgettable performance with a TD last week, finishing with 14-48-1 vs the Cardinals stiff run defense. The Browns play anything but stiff run defense. They just got done turning Denard Robinson into a Twitter superstar last week, allowing the pedestrian quasi-RB talent to rack up 22-127-1. 127 rushing yards. To Denard Robinson and the 3rd-worst run-blocking team in the NFL. Meanwhile, McFadden actually has at least a little history of being a successful RB, and has also shown flashes of his trademark burst. He has a realistic chance to absolutely demolish this horrible Browns run defense and easily hit value along the way. McFadden is a sneaky high-upside GPP play this week.

Cleveland Browns

RB Ben Tate

This game sure seems like one big collection of last week’s disappointments. That’s especially tru for Ben Tate, who was one of the highest owned RBs thanks to a ‘cake’ matchup with the Jags – Tate turned that cake matchup into 16 carries for 36 rushing yards. To be fair, the Browns line looked completely out of sync without center and leader Alex Mack. Hopefully they’ve got the kinks worked out this week, because the matchup can’t get much better than this. No, literally, it can’t get better: the Raiders allow the most rushing yards in the NFL, a ridiculous 132.7 yards per game. The Raiders already talent-deficient defense has also suffered season-ending injuries at every level, most recently to former Pro Bowl DE Lamarr Woodley, and top DB and run defender Tyvon Branch. It’s shaping up as an excellent spot for a Tate bounce back. He is a high floor/high ceiling #1 RB play that you only have to pay a #2 RB price for.

TE Jordan Cameron

Cameron was such a disappointment last week that I literally snarled as I typed his name. Cameron officially received 6 ‘targets’, a few of which seemed to just be pointed in his general direction. If you didn’t watch the game (good job), take solace in the fact that Cameron probably should have had a TD, if not for the fact that he has a remarkably mediocre QB. Like Tate though, I think you have to look past last week’s humongous disappointment, and focus on this week’s strong matchup. The Raiders simply have nobody who can match up with and cover Cameron, and I’m sure Brain Hoyer will be looking to rely on Cameron in the passing game this week so he can keep his job. Cameron makes a high-upside TE play.

RB Isaiah Crowell

As I will suggest every week the Browns have a strong rushing matchup: If you’re looking for a punt RB in GPPs, consider Crowell, who has elite running talent but is blocked from starter’s volume by Ben Tate. Against a remarkably porous Raiders run defense, you could do much worse than Crowell as a punt RB in a GPP.

WR Andrew Hawkins

Naturally on the day that Jordan Cameron one catch for 5 yards, Baby Hawk goes off for 5 catches and 112 yards. So basically Hawkins and Cameron are doing the Cam and Russell Wilson trend where they alternate HORRIBLE games with explosive one. For those following along at home then, Hawkins WK 6: 0-0; WK 7: 5-112; WK 8: RUN AWAY AS FAST AS YOU CAN. Hawkins probably retains some full PPR value, but given his wicked volatility that last few weeks, I wouldn’t recommend him until the QB play evens out.

Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers

Indianapolis Colts						Pittsburgh Steelers
Sun – 4:25 PM						Heinz Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-2.5	49	25.75				2.5	49	23.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	30.9	2	2	12		Offense	22.0	21	12	15
Defense	22.0	21	12	15		Defense	30.9	2	2	12
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Pittsburgh Steelers	4	16	7	24		Indianapolis Colts	2	17	1	22
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Wayne	62	38	1	434		Brown	74	50	5	719
Hilton	68	47	1	711		Wheaton	41	24	0	277
Nicks	32	17	2	141		Moore	10	5	2	76
Allen	33	21	5	305		Miller	36	27	1	275

Quick Grind

•High total and LOTS of fantasy goodness
•Multiple elite plays
•Consider the rookie WRs in GPPs

Indianapolis Colts

QB Andrew Luck

Andrew Luck definitely has himself on his fantasy team. The Colts completely destroyed the Bengals, yet Luck still felt the need to chuck it around for 344 (!) yards and 2 TDs. It was Lucks 427th 300+ yard passing game of the season. At this point, both our expectations and his price across the industry requires pretty insane returns to justify rostering him… but can you really bet against his production at this point? This week Luck faces a Steelers defense that Ryan Fitzpatrick just dropped 278 yards and 2 TDs on, and Mike Glennon managed 302 and 2 against in Week 4. I guess what I’m really trying to say is that DEAR GOD LUCK MIGHT TORCH THIS DEFENSE. He’s a top-3 QB option.

WR TY Hilton

Hilton came through for #GrindDown readers again last week, as he cut up the Bengals defense for 7 catches and 107 yards. Expect more of the same this week against the Steelers. They might seem like a prohibitive matchup – allowing the 7th-fewest FPPG to WRs – but their CB play has been so bad that they’ve actually benched their top corner. Yes, I’m telling you that either TY gets to face one of the worst CBs in the NFL this season, or a player who wasn’t good enough to start over that horrible CB until now. Seems win-win to me, and is just more fuel for the ‘TY Hilton is a top-10 WR always’ fire.

WR Donte Moncrief

With Reggie Wayne out with injury, reports suggest it will be rookie WR Donte Moncrief who will pick up the snaps and slack. Moncrief is a size/speed freak (6’2, 221 lb; 4.4 40-yd dash) and has the physical tools to make impact plays given the opportunity… an opportunity which he should have this week. Moncrief makes for an intriguing #3 WR in GPPs this week.

TE Dwayne Allen

Dwayne Allen got another 50+ yards and a TD last week. He will probably continue that pattern this week too, and until the end of time. Such consistency and TD-upside makes him a solid mid-level TE option.

RB Ahmad Bradshaw

I just don’t understand how teams keep refusing to cover Bradshaw on routes when the Colts are in the red-zone. But while the continued receiving TDs are fascinating from a ‘D COORDINATOR WHAT THE HELL ARE YOU DOING?!?’ standpoint, Bradshaw is even more intriguing this week due to the possibility that Trent Richardson might miss this game. He didn’t practice this week, which suggests it’s gonna be the Bradshaw and Boom (Den Herron) show this week. It’s a middle-of-the-road matchup on paper, as the Steelers allow the 15th-most rushing yards per game to RBs. When you add even more touches to the workload of an RB that is already averaging 4.8 YPC, you add an awful lot of upside. Unfortunately it seem that many are all over Bradshaw this week, but still, he is a rock-solid #2 RB this week.

Pittsburgh Steelers

WR Antonio Brown

Antonio Brown had another ho-hum 9 catches for 90 yards, threw a TD pass, and had a receiving TD called back last week. He can do all of that again this week – that is what being Elite is. You must always consider him an elite-tier option, even though my write-ups for him keep getting shorter and shorter.

RB Le’Veon Bell

Glass half-empty: Oh no, Le’Veon Bell only had 57 rushing yards! :(
Glass way-more-than-half-full: But look, he also had 8 catches for 88 yards and a TD! ☺
In Week 6 Arian Foster glided to 141 total yards and 2 TDs against this Colts defense. Last week Lev Bell racked up 145 total yards on the Texans. Le’Veon Bell is an elite weapon and is a top-5 RB option this week.

WR Martavis Bryant

Ok, so there’s a possibility that Bryant could emerge as a 3rd interesting Steeler option if he continues to be used like he was last week. Bryant basically was the big-play/vertical receiver in his first career start last week, and he pulled in a 35-yard touchdown in the process (and possibly could have had another). Bryant’s deep shot usage makes him an interesting upside punt WR in GPPs.

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