NFL Grind Down: Week 9 - Page Three

by ohnjz Last Updated 2014-11-02 09:09:02

San Diego Chargers at Miami Dolphins

San Diego Chargers						Miami Dolphins
Sun – 1:00 PM						Sun Life Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		2	44	21				-2	44	23
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	25.6	9	4	31		Offense	24.9	12	23	10
Defense	24.9	12	23	10		Defense	25.6	9	4	31
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Miami Dolphins	4	16	8	13		San Diego Chargers	20	19	12	1
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Allen	64	43	1	427		Wallace	59	32	5	418
Floyd	39	24	3	470		Hartline	35	20	1	215
Royal	42	26	5	374		Landry	34	25	1	255
Gates	49	32	9	417		Clay	35	22	1	205

Quick Grind

•Squeaky Wheel Alert: Mike Wallace
•Modest Vegas total considering the quality of both offenses…

Miami Dolphins

WR Mike Wallace

SQUEAKY WHEEL ALERT!

Wallace finally underwhelmed in the box score last week, and he had some choice words about the Dolphins offensive afterward. That qualifies for the Squeaky Wheel treatment in my book. I’m not sure how much more the Dolphins can feature Wallace than they already are, but he should get his early and often this week. As usual, Wallace’s versatility and usage in the offense means he’ll be schemed far and wide to test several different Dolphins DBs. These factors make Wallace a strong weekly option, with ever-present upside if — as I say EVERY damn week — he and Tannehill can get on the same page with the deep ball.

RB Lamar Miller

Miller continually produces despite modest carry totals, thanks largely to his sneaky role in the passing game and function as his own goal-line back when Daniel Thomas isn’t spelling. Miller faces a Chargers run defense that has struggled of late and is fresh off allowing 138 yards to Ronnie Hillman. Millers usage and the Chargers recent defensive trends make this a more attractive matchup than it appears on paper. Miller is an ideal #2 RB this week.

San Diego Chargers

QB Philip Rivers

Aside from the elite Aaron Rodgers, whom the Dolphins also harassed constantly, the Dolphins have presented a sneaky tough matchup for opposing QBs. They’ve allowed more than 1 passing TD in just 2 games this season, one of which was Week 6 vs Rodgers and the Packers. While their secondary doesn’t have exceptional talent outside CB Brent Grimes, their pass rush (as I’ve mentioned time and time again) is absolutely loaded inside-out. It’s the pass-rush that fuels the Dolphins 7th-best pass coverage grade on PFF and stingy DVP for QBs (4th-fewest FPPG allowed). Could Rivers overcome this matchup and chuck 3 TDs? Of course. But these factors also can’t be ignored, and push the most likely outcome toward the modest instead. I would look elsewhere in cash games. In GPPs, Rivers likely won’t be owned much this week, in lieu of QBs with better price/matchup combinations, so he makes for a contrarian option if you don’t believe in the Dolphins defense.

TE Antonio Gates

I called Gates the top Chargers play vs the Broncos last week, and Gates racked up another 2 TDs vs the AFC Powerhouse. But while the matchup and data pointed us in the right direction there, I’m not sure the same information exists for him this week. The Dolphins have been stingy against the TE, though beyond Gronk and Martellus Bennett, they haven’t faced much of note. Gates is always a threat to score to supplement his solid receiving totals, but I think if you’re paying for Gates you may as well splurge on the top guys this week instead.

RB Branden Oliver

I advised avoiding Oliver vs the extremely tough Broncos run-defense last week, and he managed just 63 total yards. He was able to salvage some value on full PPR sites thanks to a whopping 7 receptions, but was otherwise completely shut down. This week, Oliver will test a Dolphins defense that is average in RB DVP, yet grades as the 7th-toughest run defense squad on PFF. But they also just gave up 118 yards to Denard Robinson (though if you’ve read this far you know why that was fluky). The Dolphins recent slip ups vs the run make Oliver an interesting contrarian GPP play – he will test their LBs both at the second level and in the passing game.

Chargers WRs

Keenan Allen enjoyed a mini-breakout last week, being hammered with targets on shortish routes and making a 9-73-1 line out of a team-high 13 targets. Crucially he should avoid the coverage of top Dolphins CB Brent Grimes this week. If Allen sees similar usage this week, he makes for a solid final WR or FLEX, with #2 WR upside. While Allen avoids Brent Grimes’ coverage, Malcom Floyd experiences it. Grimes had established himself as a top CB prior to the season before struggling a bit in certain matchups. Floyd’s vertical heroics can happen at any time, but I wouldn’t recommend him vs Grimes this week.

Washington Redskins at Minnesota Vikings

Washington Redskins						Minnesota Vikings
Sun – 1:00 PM						Mall of America Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		2.5	44.5	21				-2.5	44.5	23.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	21.4	23	18	12		Offense	17.4	29	32	11
Defense	17.4	29	32	11		Defense	21.4	23	18	12
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Minnesota Vikings	2	27	10	7		Washington Redskins	31	3	21	20
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Garcon	57	39	3	443		Patterson	48	25	1	299
Jackson	54	32	3	664		Jennings	49	29	2	383
Roberts	46	23	2	248		Wright	37	24	0	286
Reed	25	21	0	190		Ellison	10	5	0	81

Quick Grind

•RG3 returns!
•QB change may give Alf Morris a boost
•Excellent matchup for the Vikings passing attack

Minnesota Vikings

RB Jerick McKinnon

McKinnon has been inching ever closer to his breakout game in the lead RB role, ripping off 19-103 and 16-83 on the ground the last two weeks. Now he faces the once ‘top’ run defense of the Redskins that I constantly criticize. And finally, after long last, the Redskins mighty defensive front fell to pieces at the hands of DeMarco Murray last week, who rampaged for 221 yards. Jerick McKinnon is not Demarco Murray (yet), but if his offensive line can run-block like they did last week, McKinnon could be unleashed here. His fiendish running once he hits the second level makes McKinnon a high-ceiling #2 RB this week, albeit with a bit lower floor than usual if the Redskins are able to plug the holes from last week.

QB Teddy Bridgewater

Another week, another nondescript Bridgewater performance where he failed to take advantage of a matchup in his favor (from a box score POV). It seems to me that the kid gloves might be on Bridgewater in the passing game after his recent struggles, which may ultimately limit the upside we’re hoping for in these matchups. But if Bridgewater can’t break out this week, against a Redskins defense that both grades out as the NFL’s WORST coverage unit, AND allows the 2nd-most FPPG to QBs… then I’m not sure he will until the game plan is changed. It would be a shame too – I think his good-not-great at everything skillset can be sneaky in DFS. Give Bridgewater a look in your GPPs this week.

WR Cordarrelle Patterson

We finally got a solid receiving line out of Patterson last week, and what do you know, it came when the Vikings fired 12 targets at their top playmaker. Patterson got banged up in that game as well, but should be good go this week against the Redskins [insert insult here] secondary. Patterson draws CB David Amerson in coverage, whom he has the physical tools to beat. But as always, half the battle will be the Vikes coaches scheming C-Patt the ball. Until they do so consistently, Patterson is a GPP-only, low-ceiling/high-floor option.

WR Greg Jennings

Jennings draws emerging talent Bashaud Breeland in coverage this week. Breeland struggled initially after replacing DeAngelo Hall but has strung together two solid positive PFF grades the last two week. That means something for a Redskins DB these days. Jennings isn’t a very attractive option this week.

Washington Redskins

The Ever-Shifting Value of Redskins WRs

With another change at QB we have to again decipher any changes in value to WRs DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon. It will be interesting to see DeSean’s usage this week – all of his blow up games this season have come with either Kirk Cousins or Colt McCoy at QB. DJax did go 8-62 in Week 1 with RG3 at the helm, and has clearly established himself as an effective deep threat regardless of the QB. He’s a regular weak-floor/massive-ceiling play. Where DJax flourished without Griffin, Garcon has largely struggled since the duo hooked up for 10 catches and 77 yards in Week 1. I anticipate seeing RG3 leaning on his chemistry with Garcon and Reed in clutch situations this week, which will hopefully make Garcon a relevant play again.

TE Jordan Reed

RG3 didn’t get much time with Reed before went down with an injury, but played a big role in Reed’s ascension as a rookie, and was finding him often in the offseason. Griffin’s arm talent could take Reed to the next level if the two can get on the same page quickly. Reed should be a solid full PPR play this week, but don’t be surprised if RG3 shows a little rust and Reed’s box scores lacks a bit as a result.

RB Alfred Morris

A couple of interesting notes relating to Alf Morris this week. First, reports are that the Skins think RG3’s return will help reinvigorate the run game – presumably due to his ability to stretch the defense both with his arm and his legs. Redskins coaches have also commented that they’re going to aim to establish the run early to get RG3 comfy and in a rhythm. Of course, coaches say this all the time. But, I think that getting Alf in the rhythm is the crucial bit here. If he can grind out some strong early runs and start wearing down the defense, it will do wonders for him (and the entire offense) come the second half. Working in Alf’s favor is the generosity of the Vikings defense, which allows the 6th-most FPPG to RBs, as well as 108 rushing yards per game. If the Redskins follow through on their word, I think Alf could be a solid #2 RB this week.

QB Robert Griffin III

RG3 returns to direct his troops this week, which so far I’ve suggested is going to be beneficial for basically all of them. That should also make Griffin himself a solid play, but do use caution this week. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Redskins leaned extra heavy on the run and used Griffin mainly on comfort throws and calculated deep shot off play action. Just as RG3 should help the run game, the run game should also help him hit some easy chunk plays downfield, which the Redskins coaches suggested was the game plan in Week 2 (before he got injured). A healthy and properly utilized RG3 has weekly GPP-winning upside – but we simply can’t know if that’s what we’re getting this week.

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