NFL Player Props for the Divisional Round
What kind of performances can we expect in the NFL Divisional Round from Jaleel McLaughlin, Sam Darnold, Woody Marks, and Caleb Williams? Follow along as our NFL betting analyst, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite NFL prop bets for this weekend’s NFL playoff action. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more NFL plays, by subscribing to the RotoGrinders Props & Pick’em package.
The NFL playoffs continue this weekend, with 4 Divisional Round matchups across the next two days. The Bills and Broncos will get things started on Saturday, followed by the 49ers against the Seahawks. On Sunday, fans will get the Texans against the Patriots in the afternoon, with the Rams and Bears closing out the festivities.
Looking at the NFL odds for this weekend, only one game has a team favored by more than 3.5 points on the consensus line, suggesting we could be in store for a competitive slate of action.
Below, you can find three of my favorite player props for the NFL Divisional Round!
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Best NFL Player Props for the NFL Divisional Round
Here are my top player prop bets, with kickoff scheduled for NFL Divisional Round:
- Jaleel McLaughlin Over/Under 19.5 Rushing Yards
- Sam Darnold Over/Under 230.5 Passing Yards
- Woody Marks Over/Under 52.5 Rushing Yards
- Caleb Williams Over/Under 216.5 Passing Yards
Jaleel McLaughlin OVER 19.5 Rushing Yards (-118, BetMGM)
BETMGMSince JK Dobbins suffered a season-ending injury in Week 10, there is little argument as to who Denver’s most efficient running back has been. McLaughlin is averaging 5.2 yards per carry and has a 13.9% explosive rush rate, whereas rookie RJ Harvey is averaging 3.4 yards per carry and has only a 6.3% explosive rush rate.
During the final 3 weeks of the regular season, McLaughlin received 18 rushing attempts compared to 36 attempts for Harvey – a relatively large and stable workload.
The return of DT Ed Oliver is a big boost for Buffalo’s run defense, but it’s still difficult to overlook the fact that the Bills allowed 8.1 yards per carry to the Jaguars’ running back room in the Wild Card round. If McLaughlin has 4+ carries on Saturday, he should have a good chance to get to 20+ yards on the ground.
Sam Darnold OVER 230.5 Passing Yards (-115, BetMGM)
BETMGMDuring the regular season, Darnold had an 8.3 aDOT and averaged a league-high 9.4 yards per attempt from a clean pocket. The 49ers pass rush has been among the worst in the NFL this season – they had the 2nd-worst pressure% of any winning defense during this past weekend’s Wild Card round.
In Week 18, San Francisco largely held Seattle’s passing attack in check, deploying a high rate of 2-high shells early in the game. However, that led to the 49ers allowing 115 rushing yards in the 1st half due to having fewer players available near the line of scrimmage.
In the 2nd half of that game, San Francisco deployed more single-high safety looks, bringing their other safety closer to the line of scrimmage to help stop the run. Given the injury concerns with Darnold this week, it stands to reason that the 49ers are likely to force the Seahawks to beat them through the air until proven otherwise on Saturday.
This could open up a deep completion or two for Darnold. At a relatively low number, there is some value on the over as long as Darnold’s oblique doesn’t limit him too badly.
Woody Marks OVER 52.5 Rushing Yards (-110, BetMGM)
BETMGMNew England’s run defense has fallen off precipitously during the latter portion of the regular season. From Week 1 to Week 10, they ranked 4th in EPA/play and 8th in Success Rate. Since Week 11, they rank 21st in EPA/play and 30th in Success Rate.
They mostly kept the Chargers’ ground attack bottled up in the Wild Card round, but it’s worth noting that the Chargers were missing their top-2 running backs in that matchup. They were also down multiple starters on the offensive line, which contributed to them finishing 27th in Adjusted Line Yards during the regular season.
Marks has been the clear bell cow for Houston’s ground attack, which should continue on Sunday. In the right game script, he could blow past this number.
Caleb Williams OVER 216.5 Passing Yards (-115, BetMGM)
BETMGMFrom Week 12 to Week 18, the Rams’ pass defense ranked 13th in EPA/play and 22nd in DVOA. Notably, they ranked 27th in explosive play% allowed during that span – consistently allowing big plays through the air with S Quentin Lake sidelined due to injury.
The good news for the Rams is that Lake returned for the team’s Wild Card matchup against the Panthers. The bad news for the Rams is that their defense still had problems containing explosive plays, allowing 3 completions of 20+ yards.
Williams doesn’t offer much stability on a down-to-down basis, but he extends plays and usually finds a way to connect for at least 1 or 2 deep balls each week. He hasn’t gone under 212 passing yards in a home game since mid-October.
The weather forecast seems a little bit overblown for this game as of this writing. Chicago is going to need to find success through the air if they hope to advance to the NFC Championship Game. Expect HC Ben Johnson to have his passing attack ready to roll in this one.
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