NFL Player Props for Monday Night Football (10/20)
What kind of performances can we expect on Monday Night Football from Sean Tucker, Kenneth Walker, and C.J. Stroud? Follow along as our NFL betting analyst, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite NFL prop bets for Buccaneers vs. Lions and Texans vs. Seahawks on October 20th. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more NFL plays, by subscribing to the RotoGrinders Props & Pick’em package.
Hopefully you haven’t had enough football this weekend, but the NFL has another Monday Night Football doubleheader on tap for Week 7! The action begins at 7:00 p.m. ET with Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers taking on Jared Goff and the Lions. Following the conclusion of that game, C.J. Stroud and the Texans will face the surging Seahawks at Lumen Field. Both games will be broadcast on ESPN.
Ahead of kickoff, there are a number of injuries to keep track of for the teams playing football this evening. Tampa Bay has already ruled out Bucky Irving, Chris Godwin, and Luke Haggard. Detroit will be without 4 starters on the defensive side of the ball. The Texans will be without Christian Kirk, and the Seahawks have a pair of starters in their secondary unit listed as questionable.
Of course, all of these injuries have the potential to have an impact on the NFL Odds for these games. As of this writing, the market has the Lions favored by 6 points and the Seahawks favored by 3 points hours ahead of kickoff.
Below, you can find three of my favorite player props for Buccaneers vs. Lions and Texans vs. Seahawks!
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Best NFL Player Props for Buccaneers vs. Lions and Texans vs. Seahawks
Here are my top player prop bets, with kickoff scheduled for 7:00 PM ET on Monday, October 20th:
- Sean Tucker Over/Under 13.5 Rushing Yards
- Kenneth Walker Over/Under 49.5 Rushing Yards
- C.J. Stroud Over/Under 16.5 Rushing Yards
Sean Tucker OVER 13.5 Rushing Yards (-110, bet365)
BET365Tampa Bay’s lead running back, Bucky Irving, hasn’t played since Week 4 against Philadelphia. In Week 5, Rachaad White led the backfield with 14 attempts, but he averaged only 2.9 yards per carry. In Week 6, White once again led the team with 17 rushing attempts, but he averaged only 3.8 yards per carry against an injury-depleted San Francisco defensive line.
The opportunities for Tucker don’t figure to go down in Week 7 following consecutive inefficient weeks from White. Tucker had 3 attempts in Week 5, then 6 attempts in Week 6. It’s not crazy to think we see closer to a 50/50 backfield split from the Buccaneers this evening, at least as far as rushing attempts go.
Detroit has a strong run defense and Tampa Bay’s offensive line is ravaged by the injury bug at the moment, so this might not be a spot to go crazy, but the value remains.
Kenneth Walker OVER 49.5 Rushing Yards (-112, FanDuel)
FANDUELAt some point, it becomes morally indefensible for Seattle to continue giving Walker and Zach Charbonnet an equal number of rushing attempts per game. Walker is averaging 4.7 yards per carry and has a 15.4% explosive rush rate through 6 weeks. Charbonnet is averaging 2.6 yards per carry and has a 1.7% explosive rush rate.
Entering the weekend, Houston’s run defense ranked only 17th in EPA/play and 17th in success rate against the run this season, a significant drop from their dominance a season ago. There should be room for Walker to run tonight. If Seattle gives him a few more of Charbonnet’s opportunities, the value on the over grows even more.
C.J. Stroud UNDER 16.5 Rushing Yards (-110, bet365)
BET365Stroud isn’t exactly the most athletic of modern NFL quarterbacks. He’s managed to run for 22+ yards in 4 of Houston’s first 5 games, but 3 of those games came against man-heavy defenses. In Houston’s lone game against a zone-heavy defense, Stroud ran for only 11 yards against the Titans in Week 4.
Tonight, Stroud will face a Seattle defense that has deployed 65.8%+ zone coverage in each of their last 5 games. Zone coverage typically allows defenses to do a better job containing the quarterback because the team’s linebackers keep their eyes on the pocket while dropping into specific zones. This is different from man coverage, where a quarterback can often escape the pocket unseen while the defense has its back turned.
It’s unlikely Stroud has a big day with his legs this evening.
Image Credit: Imagn