NFL Player Props for Chiefs vs. Jaguars MNF (10/6)
What kind of performances can we expect on Monday Night Football from Trevor Lawrence, Brenton Strange, and Xavier Worthy? Follow along as our NFL betting analyst, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite NFL prop bets for Chiefs vs. Jaguars on October 6th. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more NFL plays, by subscribing to the RotoGrinders Props & Pick’em package.
This week’s edition of Monday Night Football will feature Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs against Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET on ABC and ESPN.
Following a slow start to the year, Mahomes and company appear to be hitting their stride, having won their last 2 games by a combined score of 59-29 over the Giants and Ravens, respectively. The Jaguars are a late defensive collapse away from being the only remaining undefeated team in the NFL heading into tonight’s action. Still, Lawrence and the Jaguars have an opportunity to move into a 1st-place tie with the Colts in the AFC South if they can defend home turf this evening.
Looking at the NFL Weather ahead of kickoff, RotoGrinders Chief Meteorologist Kevin Roth is forecasting a slim chance of rain, with sustained winds over 10 mph. It’s possible that these elements deter the deep passing game, to an extent, but nothing seems overly alarming as of this writing. As always, keep an eye on the forecast as we get closer to gametime for the most up-to-date information.
Below, you can find three of my favorite player props for Chiefs vs. Jaguars!
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Best NFL Player Props for Chiefs vs. Jaguars
Here are my top player prop bets, with kickoff scheduled for 8:15 PM ET on Monday, October 6th:
- Trevor Lawrence Over/Under 32.5 Passing Attempts
- Brenton Strange Over/Under 3.5 Receptions
- Xavier Worthy Over/Under 5.5 Rushing Yards
Trevor Lawrence OVER 32.5 Passing Attempts (-125, BetMGM)
BETMGMLooking at the forecast for tonight, it’s possible that wind plays a factor to some degree. Our Chief Meteorologist is forecasting sustained winds above 10 mph, with gusts over 20 mph. These aren’t weather conditions that make throwing the football impossible, but it certainly doesn’t make it any easier to throw the ball down the field.
The Chiefs have been able to get consistent pressure early this fall, which forces opposing quarterbacks to get rid of the ball quickly. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Lawrence and the Jaguars be aggressive throwing the ball near the line of scrimmage in this spot, which could lead to a high number of attempts in a competitive game script.
Brenton Strange OVER 3.5 Receptions (-141, DraftKings)
DRAFTKINGSThis season, there has been a clearly defined role for Strange as Jacksonville’s safety valve in low-aDOT situations. Through 4 games, Strange ranks 2nd on the team in total targets (23) and 3rd in first-read target% (7.8%), but he doesn’t have a single downfield target. His 5.9 aDOT is by far the lowest on the Jaguars among the team’s primary receiving options.
On a night when wind could force more action underneath rather than downfield, it makes sense to think that Strange could see good usage in the offense. Kansas City has been pretty good at defending opposing tight ends early in 2025, but this is a low enough number to make Strange worthy of consideration.
Xavier Worthy UNDER 5.5 Rushing Yards (-121, Caesars)
CAESARSWorthy was a late addition to the team’s injury report on Sunday with shoulder and ankle injuries. The new ankle injury doesn’t seem overly concerning, but it could be enough to warrant Kansas City asking less of Worthy as a rusher in Week 5.
Worthy returned to the field last weekend, carrying the ball twice for 38 rushing yards, but he was coming back from a shoulder injury, which has virtually no impact on a player’s ability to cut up the field. An ankle injury could be more limiting in that regard, which could take these special packages out of the playbook altogether against the Jaguars.
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