NFL Player Props for Commanders vs. Chiefs MNF (10/27)
What kind of performances can we expect on Monday Night Football from Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Kareem Hunt, and Patrick Mahomes? Follow along as our NFL betting analyst, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite NFL prop bets for Commanders vs. Chiefs on October 27th. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more NFL plays, by subscribing to the RotoGrinders Props & Pick’em package.
Week 8 of Monday Night Football will feature the Washington Commanders and Kansas City Chiefs. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN and ABC from Arrowhead Stadium.
Entering play, Washington has been in somewhat of a tailspin, losing 3 of their last 4 contests. Tonight, they will once again be without starting Jayden Daniels, who has been ruled out with a hamstring injury. They could also be facing an uphill challenge on the defensive side of the ball, with DT Daron Payne listed as questionable after not practicing all week. Payne is 4th on the team in pressures and leads the Commanders in snaps this season on the defensive line.
On the other side of this matchup, Kansas City is trending in the opposite direction, having won 4 of their last 5 games after a surprising 0-2 start to the campaign. QB Patrick Mahomes is currently the odds-on favorite to win the league’s MVP award as the orchestrator of one of the league’s most efficient offenses. He will have a challenge this evening, however, with the Chiefs missing a pair of starting offensive linemen.
Looking at the NFL Odds for tonight’s matchup, the market doesn’t appear to be expecting much of a fight from the Commanders, with Mahomes and company favored by 10.5 points on the spread. The total is set at over/under 47.5 points.
Below, you can find three of my favorite player props for Commanders vs. Chiefs!
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Best NFL Player Props for Commanders vs. Chiefs
Here are my top player prop bets, with kickoff scheduled for 8:15 PM ET on Monday, October 27th:
- Jacory Croskey-Merritt Over/Under 46.5 Rushing Yards
- Kareem Hunt Over/Under 18.5 Rushing Yards
- Patrick Mahomes Over/Under 34.5 Passing Attempts
Jacory Croskey-Merritt OVER 46.5 Rushing Yards (-115, BetMGM)
BETMGMDuring the last 3 weeks, Croskey-Merritt has been the clear lead option in Washington’s backfield. In that time, he’s received 44 of the 57 carries that the team has given to the running back position, which includes nearly all of the work between the 20s.
Kansas City’s run defense hasn’t been particularly poor early in 2025, but this isn’t likely to be a prohibitive matchup for Croskey-Merritt, either. Through 7 weeks, the Chiefs run defense ranked 21st in success rate and 24th in EPA/play. If Washington is able to keep this game remotely competitive, there should be opportunities for Croskey-Merritt to have a decent performance on the ground.
Kareem Hunt OVER 18.5 Rushing Yards (-112, FanDuel)
FANDUELDespite many people assuming that Isiah Pacheco was going to be Kansas City’s clear lead running back this fall, he still hasn’t played more than 18 snaps in a single game through 7 weeks. Hunt played a season-low 5 snaps in Week 7 against the Raiders, but that game was also over before halftime, and the Chiefs rested the majority of their key players for the entire 4th quarter. Hunt has also been working through ankle and knee injuries, so there was even more incentive to reduce his workload in such a lopsided affair.
The Chiefs could call his number a little bit more often, facing a Commanders team that should have a decent chance to keep this game competitive – at least more competitive than the Raiders game last weekend. Washington’s run defense ranked only 14th in success rate and 20th in EPA/play through 7 weeks, so Hunt should have a chance to clear this number here if he sees 5+ carries.
Patrick Mahomes OVER 34.5 Passing Attempts (-108, FanDuel)
FANDUELIt’s no secret that Kansas City lacks an elite ground attack. After 7 weeks, the Chiefs ranked only 14th in success rate on the ground, which has led to them using short passes as a substitute for running the football.
The result has been a lot of pass attempts for Mahomes This season, Mahomes only has 2 games with fewer than 35 pass attempts. Since Week 3, Washington has played at the 6th-quickest pace in the league in games where they are either leading or trailing by 1 score. When they have been trailing by 2+ scores, they have still played at a quick pace, like all teams that are trying to play catch-up after falling behind.
If we see Washington play with good pace again this evening, it could mean more opportunities for Mahomes to throw the football. At near even money, this is a play worthy of consideration if assuming the Commanders can keep this game close enough to keep the Chiefs starters in the game in the 4th quarter.
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