NFL Player Props for Thanksgiving Slate (11/27)
What kind of performances can we expect on Thanksgiving from Christian Watson, Xavier Worthy, and Lamar Jackson? Follow along as our NFL betting analyst, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite NFL prop bets for the NFL Thanksgiving slate on November 27th. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more NFL plays, by subscribing to the RotoGrinders Props & Pick’em package.
Happy Thanksgiving! The NFL’s holiday slate features 3 marquee matchups, beginning at 1:00 p.m. ET with the Packers visiting the Lions. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs will battle Dak Prescott and the Cowboys in the mid-afternoon time slot, with the Bengals and Ravens wrapping things up at 8:20 p.m. ET.
Looking at the NFL Odds for this year’s Thanksgiving Slate, football fans should expect an entertaining and competitive day of action, with all 3 games priced as a 1-score matchups.
Below, you can find three of my favorite player props for the NFL on Thanksgiving!
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Best NFL Player Props for Thanksgiving
Here are my top player prop bets, with kickoff scheduled for 1:00 PM ET on Thursday, November 27th:
- Christian Watson Over/Under 3.5 Receptions
- Xavier Worthy Over/Under 35.5 Receiving Yards
- Lamar Jackson Over/Under 25.5 Rushing Yards
Christian Watson OVER 3.5 Receptions (+110, BetMGM)
BETMGMSo far this season, Green Bay has preferred to spread the ball around rather than commit to a consistent top option in the team’s passing attack. That being said, since Tucker Kraft last played in Week 9, there is a receiver who has clearly stood out on the roster as a reliable option for Jordan Love.
Watson (16 targets) has only a narrow lead in a relatively egalitarian passing attack for Green Bay during their last 3 games, with Romeo Doubs (15 targets) and Dontayvion Wicks (14 targets) also heavily involved. However, Watson is the only one of them with a positive DVOA in that span. His 0.753 EPA/target is leaps and bounds ahead of Doubs (-0.018) and Wicks (0.282).
Notably, Watson has received 6 of the team’s 12 total targets on 3rd down in their last couple of games. He’s emerging as a legitimate WR1 in this passing attack and should have plenty of opportunities to continue making plays on Thanksgiving against a beatable Detroit secondary unit.
Xavier Worthy OVER 35.5 Receiving Yards (-115, BetMGM)
BETMGMPrior to acquiring DT Quinnen Williams, Dallas’ run defense ranked 29th in EPA/play and 31st in success rate. In 2 games since adding Williams to the team’s defense, they rank 13th in EPA/play and 4th in success rate against the run.
We shouldn’t be led to believe that the Cowboys run defense is all of a sudden elite, but there’s little doubt that they are significantly improved. The net result of that this week should force Kansas City to throw the ball more frequently, especially with them being down an interior offensive lineman.
Worthy has been a clear No. 3 option in Kansas City’s passing attack since Rashee Rice returned from suspension, but he’s still had 7+ targets in 3 of his last 4 games. Worthy also has the highest aDOT of any notable Chiefs pass catcher in that span. He’s capable of clearing this on a single reception, but it’s also possible that he could simply see more work overall on Thanksgiving with Noah Gray out and the team potentially forced into a pass-heavier offensive attack.
Lamar Jackson OVER 25.5 Rushing Yards (-115, DraftKings)
DRAFTKINGSJackson suffered a toe injury in the 1st quarter of the Jets game, which is likely partly responsible for him running for only 11 yards in Week 12. He had an ankle injury coming out of the team’s Week 11 matchup against the Browns and a knee injury going into that game. Of course, he missed a month of the regular season with a hamstring injury too.
All of that being said, he would not be Baltimore’s starting quarterback on Thursday if he wasn’t able to execute all aspects of his game. It’s possible that he hasn’t run too much in recent weeks because of some nagging injuries, but it’s also plausible that he simply hasn’t forced the issue given a weak stretch of opponents.
On Thursday, the Ravens have a pivotal divisional game against the Bengals. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Jackson make more of an impact with his legs. Buy the bad news here and take advantage of the dip in price on his rushing prop.
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