NFL Player Props for Bills vs. Texans TNF (11/20)
What kind of performances can we expect on Thursday Night Football from Josh Allen, James Cook, and Nick Chubb? Follow along as our NFL betting analyst, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite NFL prop bets for Bills vs. Texans on November 20th. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more NFL plays, by subscribing to the RotoGrinders Props & Pick’em package.
This evening’s edition of Thursday Night Football will feature Josh Allen and the Bills against the Texans from NRG Stadium. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video.
Backup QB Davis Mills will be making his 3rd consecutive start for Houston, with QB C.J. Stroud still not out of the league’s concussion protocol. Stroud’s absence raises the question – are we in for another lopsided, low-scoring prime-time affair?
Since the beginning of Week 8, 8 of the league’s 13 prime-time games have finished with a double-digit margin of victory, including 4 games decided by at least 21 points.
Mills is 2-0 SU since taking over for Stroud, but he needed an improbable 19-point 4th-quarter comeback to beat the Jaguars in Week 10. This past weekend, the Texans needed a game-winning field goal as time expired to beat the 1-9 Titans.
Looking at the NFL Odds for this contest, the market is seemingly optimistic that Mills and company can keep this game competitive, with Buffalo favored by only 5.5 points. Let’s hope we get an entertaining football game to begin Week 13!
Below, you can find three of my favorite player props for Bills vs. Texans!
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Best NFL Player Props for Bills vs. Texans
Here are my top player prop bets, with kickoff scheduled for 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, November 20th:
- Josh Allen Over/Under 13.5 Yards – Longest Rush
- James Cook Over/Under 18.5 Rushing Attempts
- Nick Chubb Over/Under 20.5 Rushing Yards
Josh Allen OVER 13.5 Yards – Longest Rush (-110, DraftKings)
DRAFTKINGSAllen has cleared this number in 6 games already this season, and he should have a good chance to make it 7 this evening against Houston. In the last 4 weeks alone, the Texans have allowed a 20-yard rush to Cam Ward, a 21-yard rush to Trevor Lawrence, a 25-yard rush to Bo Nix, and a 13-yard rush to Mac Jones. This is a defense that has consistently struggled to contain mobile quarterbacks in the pocket of late. Allen could be the latest such player to escape for a big gain against the Texans.
James Cook UNDER 18.5 Rushing Attempts (-105, bet365)
BET365Cook has a tough matchup tonight against a Houston defense that ranks top 10 in most important metrics. There are other reasons to think Cook might fall short of this number too. In the last 5 weeks, Cook has only played more than 20 rushing snaps once. If that trend continues, that means Cook would likely need to receive a rush attempt on nearly every rushing snap he plays on Thursday. Ray Davis and Ty Johnson are both capable options at the running back position, and they could see a few extra snaps on a short week. At nearly even money, there is some value on the under.
Nick Chubb OVER 20.5 Rushing Yards (-110, BetMGM)
BETMGMChubb has seen his workload decrease each of the last 2 weeks, but we might see a slight bounce back for him in Week 12, facing a Buffalo run defense that ranks 30th in DVOA and 30th in EPA/play this season. Chubb has been efficient with his opportunities in recent weeks, averaging 9.4 yards per carry against Jacksonville and 5.7 yards per carry against Tennessee. If he breaks one decent run on Thursday, he likely won’t need many opportunities to get to 21 rushing yards.
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