NFL PrizePicks Week 5 Predictions: Pacheco, Tank, & Howell Highlight Top Plays
In this space, we’ll look at exciting offers on the PrizePicks board for Week 4 of the NFL season and try to make some predictions based on projections, trends, and the market.
PrizePicks, a DFS Pick’em site, lays out player projections for us to stack on a ticket for user-created entries. They prompt us with a statistical projection for a player, and we get to pick whether or not the player will get More or Less than the line offered. There are hundreds of players from whom to choose and we only have to make at least two picks to create a contest. If you haven’t tried it yet, use the PrizePicks referral code “GRINDERS” to get a deposit match up to $100.
For NFL Week 5, we’ll look at all of the prompts and see what usage, gameflow, Vegas, and — of course — our projections can tell us about how players are likely to produce. We’ll look at a passing, rushing, and receiving prompts most weeks.
PrizePicks Top Plays for NFL Week 5
- Isiah Pacheco LESS than 63.5 rushing yards
- Tank Dell MORE than 42.5 receiving yards
- Sam Howell LESS than 236.5 passing yards
Kansas City Chiefs at Minnesota Vikings
Isiah Pacheco MORE/LESS Than 63.5 Rushing Yards
A LESS play in a 53.5-point total might feel stupid, but with the 5.5-point spread and 29-total for the Chiefs and the passing yardage projection of Patrick Mahomes north of 284, this is gonna be one of those aerial assaults for Kansas City. Between the need to get Travis Kelce going, Jerick McKinnon jet sweeps, and Minnesota defense that doesn’t require running to set up passing, Isiah Pacheco could be minimized for this particular game.
We would want this line in the 6.5-plus range to start dialing up Pacheco MORE plays. Maybe even seven-plus. Just to guarantee us some garbage time. I’m playing this as a shootout with next to no garbage time bell cow goodness before Mahomes kneels it out.
We have Pacheco projected for 52.66 rushing yards
PLAY: Isiah Pacheco LESS than 63.5 rushing yards
Houston Texans at Atlanta Falcons
Tank Dell MORE/LESS Than 42.5 Receiving Yards
The Texans are bad, but they’ve come to sling the damn rock. C.J. Stroud has 151 pass attempts through the first four games. Twenty-four of those passes were to Tank Dell with a 12.3 aDOT, including ten in Week 2 and seven in Week 3.
The Falcons enhance the sink-or-swim factor because they deflate the ball. We’d normally want a faster pace, but this MORE/LESS prompt is just too low for a WR averaging over 73 air yards per game from a gunslinger QB. We have Dell projected for 62.95 receiving yards, despite the Falcons’ pace, so we should feel good about a MORE play for some of our contests.
PLAY: Tank Dell MORE than 42.5 receiving yards
Washington Commanders vs. Chicago Bears
Sam Howell MORE/LESS Than 236.5 Pass Yards
Thursday Night Football sucks.
These are two already bad offenses and we’re giving them a short week. A short week that makes most teams totally suck.
I get it. The Bears suck. But Thursday Night Football has a unique suck factor for passing attacks. Sam Howell being a novice QB should amplify the suck factor.
We have Howell projected for 206.07 passing yards in a game where he shouldn’t have to pass, as he had to in Weeks 2 and 4, where he threw for 299 and 290.
Thursday Night Football belongs to DSTs and RBs for fantasy purposes. Not QBs making their sixth professional starts.