NFL Reid Option: Week 10

Each week, Sammy Reid will break down each position in detail, pinpointing his favorite plays at various salary ranges. Who should we be focusing our core on this week? Read below to find out!

Week 10

I went to FPAZ – First Pitch Arizona – this weekend. For the uninitiated, FPAZ is a fantasy baseball conference put on by Baseball HQ during the Arizona Fall League every November, and it’s super awesome.

The mornings are filled with presentations from advanced scouting to statcast data, put on by some of the brightest minds in the industry. The afternoons are spent sitting behind home plate at minor league ballgames and watching some of the best prospects in the game like Ronald Acuna and Victor Robles. I saw Cody Bellinger play last year, and he hit a home run I’ll never forget; six months later he was in the bigs putting together a Rookie of the Year season for the ages. The nights are spent carousing and playing poker, and while most guys are casual players, there are a couple notable sharks like Rays scout Jason Gray and Rotowire senior editor Jeff Erickson.

We got some bonus late-night gaming action when Derek Van Riper brought Tecmo Super Bowl and took on all comers. I hadn’t played for at least a decade, but I stepped up with the confidence that years of ingrained muscle memory would help me knock the king off the mountain. I chose the Montana/Rice 49ers, but my heart quickly dropped into my toes when I realized my grave mistake as DVR took the Raiders – and the greatest video game player in history, Bo Jackson. I was immediately on tilt, but the warm buzz of alcohol and other things kept me loose.

I spent the entire game picking Bo runs, and DVR shrewdly countered with an early pass-heavy approach. I made a few slick defensive plays, but I’m just one man; when you pick a run, your D automatically becomes the 2015 Saints against the pass. DVR got into the zone with a deep bomb to Tim Brown right off the bat, and when my ensuing drive was aborted by a fumble mere yards from paydirt, I was in trouble. After another DVR touchdown, I made a key error in trying to take a touchback on the ensuing kickoff – I had forgotten they don’t exist in TSB, and I got rocked for a safety. At 16-0, DVR was nice enough to auto-punt the ball back to me, but being the cut-throat competitor that is he, he declined to give me back my two points. Undeterred, I fought on.

In the end, the score was 16-7. DVR was too good; his defense was impregnable, his tackling angles were perfect, his kicks were full power, and his offense was diverse and well-oiled – I don’t remember choosing his play once. After the things he did to me on the Tecmo field, I have plenty of names I could call him, but still it was great.

While the makeup of the FPAZ group was mostly homogenous (ie white dudes), there was a cool diversity age-wise. Many of the Godfathers of fantasy – guys who have been playing fantasy sports since the pre-internet days like Ron Shandler, Greg Ambrosius, and Lawr Michaels – were there along-side lifers like Eric Karabell and Tristan Cockroft. These guys built fantasy sports from the ground up, paving the way for this industry to become what it is today. And they’re looking to the new guard – Eno Sarris, Paul Sporer, Jason Collette, Vlad Sedler, Derek Carty, and Rob Silver among others – to take over and keep this damn thing going.

If you’ve never gone, or never considered going, you should. There’s always been a divide between DFS players and seasonal fantasy players, but as someone who very much enjoys both, I don’t really know why. We’re all trying to project how players will do, just on different scales. I have huge respect for a guy like Dave Potts, whose mind is pliable enough to excel at an elite level in both arenas. I learn new things at FPAZ every year, and with metrics becoming more advanced every year (think Statcast data), staying on top of the trends is key, no matter your game. And hey, if you’re lucky, we’ll have time for a game of Tecmo Super Bowl.

On a typical NFL week I put together multiple cash game lineups across multiple sites which will have significant player overlap. I diversify to hedge on the players I don’t feel as strongly about to reduce variance in a game where it’s inherent. The players I feel strongest about will be in the majority of my lineups – these are my “high exposure” picks. The “moderate exposure” players will be in roughly half of my lineups, and the “GPP” picks are higher-risk, high-reward plays that I believe will be under-owned by the masses. The GPP options listed aren’t the only guys I’ll be using in tournaments, but more so the gems I see as having the best ownership-to-upside ratio on the board.

(As always, all odds listed are accurate at time of writing, and may shift throughout the week. The Reid Option focuses exclusively on the main slate.)

QUARTERBACKMODERATE EXPOSURE

Matt Stafford vs CLE ($6800 DK, $8200 FD, $13,300 FDRAFT) – Stafford has been the most impressive QB in football in the past two weeks since coming off his bye, torching the Steelers and Packers for 784 yards and 10.1 Y/A. This week he draws a home game against the toilet scum of the NFL, the Cleveland Browns, who are worse at defense than Ben Pritchett is at Twitter. The Browns D has allowed a 103.0 QB rating (the 2nd-worst mark in the league) and rank 28th in pass defense DVOA while ranking in the bottom-10 in adjusted sack rate (5.8%). With the incompetent Ameer Abdullah exhibiting Cypher-from-the-Matrix levels of trustworthiness, Detroit used Stafford to put the game away last week even with an insurmountable lead, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them do so again this week.

Ryan Fitzpatrick vs NYJ ($4900 DK, $6100 FD, $10,300 FDRAFT) – Fitz is a less appealing play without the suspended Mike Evans, but he’s still a decently skilled, near min-priced home QB against a mediocre defense. Considering his proclivity to run (Fitz has averaged nearly 20 rushing yards per game started in his career) and still passable weapons, I believe in Fitzmagic to hit cash game value.

QUARTERBACKGPP PLAYS

Matt Ryan vs DAL ($6500 DK, $7700 FD, $11,800 FDRAFT) – Profit opportunities in large-field GPPs come when public perception differs from the reality. The perception is that the Falcons offense is terrible; the reality is that it ranks 6th in total YPG, 6th in net passing YPG, and 8th in offensive DVOA – despite playing just three of their eight games at home. Vegas agrees, installing the Falcons as three-point favorites with a top-5 implied team total of 26.8 points.

Ben Roethlisberger @ IND ($6600 DK, $7600 FD, $13,600 FDRAFT) – Ben is the ex-girlfriend that I keep going back to, even though the magic is obviously gone. I give myself sweet-smelling reasons like, “the Colts have given up on life” and “the offense is really going to purr with JuJu taking on a featured role”, but really I’m just hoping we can have one more magical night together.

RUNNING BACKHIGH EXPOSURE

Le’Veon Bell @ IND ($9800 DK, $9400 FD, $17,800 FDRAFT) – DK rightfully has made it difficult to get up to Bell, and in cash games it probably makes more sense from a value perspective to go with Gurley for $1100 cheaper as a 12-point home favorite against Houston. The problem is then that you either jam in AB and punt multiple positions, or fade PIT completely, which is a worse idea than a Jump to Conclusions mat. Sure, you can go with JuJu and the driver’s license narrative, but it’s not the same and we both know it.

Todd Gurley vs HOU ($8700 DK, $9600 FD, $15,100 FDRAFT) –

They see me rollin’, they hatin’
Trollin’ and tryin’ to catch me ridin’ Gurley
Tryna catch me ridin’ Gurley
Tryna catch me ridin’ Gurley
Tryna catch me ridin’ Gurley
Tryna catch me ridin’ Gurley

His stats be so large, can’t fade him
In all my lineups I be ridin’ Gurley
Tryna catch me ridin’ Gurley
Tryna catch me ridin’ Gurley
Tryna catch me ridin’ Gurley
Tryna catch me ridin’ Gurley

Grindin’ games with a gangsta lean
Gurley gonna lead to a sea of green
Big home favorite versus a crappy team
You a fish if you don’t jam him in

I try to fade him, Davis like “hold up
I’m a fish and I sure don’t know much
But even I know you a sucka
If you ain’t got no Gurley exposure”

Gurley or Bell, I just don’t know
On FanDuel just play em both
Or be like Nate and you can go
Double TE in cash like a fishy bro

They see me rollin’, they hatin’
Trollin’ and tyin’ to catch me ridin’ Gurley
Tryna catch me ridin’ Gurley
Tryna catch me ridin’ Gurley
Tryna catch me ridin’ Gurley
Tryna catch me ridin’ Gurley

His stats be so large, can’t fade him
In all my lineups I be ridin’ Gurley
Tryna catch me ridin’ Gurley
Tryna catch me ridin’ Gurley
Tryna catch me ridin’ Gurley
Tryna catch me ridin’ Gurley

RUNNING BACKMODERATE EXPOSURE

Carlos Hyde vs NYG ($6300 DK, $6700 FD, $13,000 FDRAFT) – “Fully egregious” is probably the best way to describe the Giants defense, a unit that ranks 25th or worse in DVOA against both the pass and the rush. Hyde has quiety been a usage monster this season; his 18.3 Actual Opportunity per game (Scott Barrett’s metric measuring expected fantasy ppg) ranks 5th among all NFL RBs, just below Todd Gurley and just above Ezekiel Elliott. You know how it’s profitable to target teams that have fully given up? Here’s a fine opportunity presenting itself.

RUNNING BACKGPP PLAYS

Jordan Howard vs GB ($6100 DK, $7200 FD, $12,600 FDRAFT) – The Bears have been riding JoHo harder as the season has gone on; he’s averaging 26.7 carries per game over his past three while Tarik Cohen has faded into the background. He rates to see another strong usage game here as a five-point home favorite against the Packers D that ranks in the bottom five in FPPG against RBs. Because his profile is more rushes and TDs than catches and targets, I prefer him in GPPs or on .5 PPR sites like FanDuel.

WIDE RECEIVERMODERATE EXPOSURE

Marvin Jones Jr vs CLE ($6200 DK, $6400 FD, $12,200 FDRAFT) – Jones doesn’t draw a stellar individual matchup – he’s slated to run about 50% of his routes against the ever-solid Jason McCourty – but it’s hard to ignore his usage at this point. He’s averaging 11 targets per game over his past four contests and he leads the team by-far-and-away in RZ targets (9) and targets inside the 10-yard line (5). Even if he only sees seven or eight looks here, he’s a sick value – particularly on FanDuel, where I consider him a lock. On Draftkings, he’s still a fine play, but I’d consider Golden Tate a better cash option if you have the $600 lying around.

Robby Anderson @ TB ($5200 DK, $6500 FD, $9500 FDRAFT) – Robby A’s price has lagged behind his production – he’s scored in three straight games – and he can still be had for a song on all the major sites. He profiled as a strong buy even before this recent hot streak – he’s currently tied for 7th in market share of air yards with guys like Julio Jones and TY Hilton. I prefer him in GPPs due to his high air yard/moderate target market share profile, but the DK pricing is so tight it’s hard to be choosy these days. Helping matters is the Tampa Bay secondary, a group of talentless scallywags that rank 31st DVOA against the pass and have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to villain WRs.

Adam Humphries vs NYJ ($3100 DK, $4800 FD, $6600 FDRAFT) – According to PFF’s Tyler Buecher, Jets slot CB Buster Skrine is allowing the highest passer rating in the NFL (129.1), and when ole Tyler speaks, I listen. Humphries is also slated for an uptick in targets with Mike Evans out and Ryan Fitzpatrick – who’s more prone to short dump-offs than Jameis Winston – at the helm. Hump has a very low floor and is certainly unnecessary on FD, but on DK where we’re constantly in dire need of punts, he’s a top option for the job.

WIDE RECEIVERGPP PLAYS

A.J. Green @ TEN ($7700 DK, $7900 FD, $13,800 FDRAFT) – While Antonio Brown rates to be the top-owned high-priced WR (and for good reason – he’s a legendary play), it’s Green who could be the forgotten man and a strong pivot off the chalk. AJG is 2nd in the NFL in air yard market share and will see his action against rookie Adoree Jackson and the flammable Leshaun Sims.

Adam Thielen @ WASH ($6700 DK, $7000 FD, $11,600 FDRAFT) – Thielen is tied for 5th in the NFL in targets (would you believe Amari Cooper is 4th?), and has only seen fewer than eight in one game this season. He’ll square off against ‘Skins slot CB Kendall Fuller, the weak link in his secondary’s chain. Because of his amazing consistency Thielen is a fine cash play in his own right, but he’s also a sick pivot off the DET pass catchers in GPPs.

TIGHT ENDMODERATE EXPOSURE

Charles Clay vs NO ($4200 DK, $5400 FD, $9600 FDRAFT) – Prior to his injury, Clay had received 5.6 targets per game and a 21% target market share, a top-5 mark among TEs. While the matchup against the Saints isn’t great (you know it’s a weird year when you can make that statement), WR Zay Jones is unlikely to play, which should filter plenty of looks Clay’s way. Whadda say? Shall we have a day? We just may. Ok. Sorry.

TIGHT ENDGPP PLAYS

Hunter Henry @ JAX ($3900 DK, $5400 FD, $7000 FDRAFT) – HH was on quite a roll before his Week 8 stinkbomb, but I shan’t let one bad performance get me off a good player. In his three games previous, Henry had seen 6.7 targets per game, a recipe for big-time production from one of the league’s most talented tight ends. Henry did drop to a 62% snap rate after he’d been clocking in over 80%, but it’s worth the GPP exposure to gamble that it was a one-week gameplan-specific blip, and we got a big price drop to make it worth our while.

Cameron Brate vs NYJ ($4100 DK, $5700 FD, $7600 FDRAFT) – With Mike Evans gone, Brate figures to be the main man in the red zone for the Bucs. Like Henry, Brate also had a tough go of it last week, but in his previous five games he took three trips to the end zone and cleared 60 yards every time out. Pairing Brate with Fitz is a very cheap, high-upside stack in GPPs this week.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMSMODERATE EXPOSURE

Rams vs HOU ($3600 DK, $5400 FD, $6700 FDRAFT) – When Lions attack a herd of Buffalo, they look for the weakest, slowest targets to take down. Often times these are the newborns who can barely see, let alone run. Deshaun Watson had some big horns – and the Texans had allowed the third-highest adjusted sack rate in the NFL even with him around – but he’s gone, and all that’s left is Tom Savage, a helpless newborn. It’s time for the Rams D to feast.

Bears vs GB ($3000 DK, $4300 FD, $5100 FDRAFT) – If you’re paying down, the Bears are cheap across the industry and get a home game against the Packers, who have failed to score 20 points since Aaron Rodgers snapped and have amassed just 591 total yards in two full games with Hundley at the helm. At 16.5 points, the Packers have the second-lowest implied team total on the main slate, and with star tackle Bryan Bulaga out with a torn ACL, their pass protection is all the more vulnerable. Take advantage.

Thanks for reading, everyone! Let’s go make some money in Week 10.

Meet the Experts Content Posting Times

About the Author

  • Sammy Reid (SammyReid)

  • Sammy is a former online poker professional and Hearts champion who has been playing competitive fantasy sports for more than 15 years. A student of both sports and game theory, Sammy has been grinding DFS cash games since 2013. You can find more of his work in the 2017 edition of Joe Pisapia’s Fantasy Black Book, at FantasyInsiders.com, RosterCoach.com, and the Baseballholics Anonymous podcast.

Comments

  • mewhitenoise

    RG Contributor

    • Blogger of the Month

    I was a Bears fan growing up, and I always played with the awful Mike Tomczak/Neal Anderson/Ron Morris combo. Very little Bo. One of my bigger regrets in life.

  • tommykramer9

    Nice Tecmo experience, next a little old school NBA Jam? Anyway, any thoughts on T Taylor at QB? He’s like that song that gets stuck in your head and you don’t know why …….and you can’t get it out. Well he’s doing that to me , except this is dfs and he’s QB of the Bills…. Guess it’s the sometimes porus Bills D and the I don’t think they are very good away from home Saints D… How about some guidance please and of course thanks!

  • SammyReid

    Haha you’re usually so sharp too

  • SammyReid

    Yeah I could be into some Tyrod; he’s not my favorite play but I think he’s a good play that could be overlooked in GPPs

    Also – ofc I wrote this before Bilal opened up; he’s a pretty nutty play at this point

    And the more I look at things as the week goes on, the more I like pieces of that NYG/SF game. Fast paced and bad defenses

  • Eddiedt88

    Amazing Gurley take, I love it haha

  • X Unread Thread
  • X Thread with New Replies*
  • *Jumps to your first unread reply

New to DFS?

Be sure to click through our links and use our exclusive promo codes to receive the industry's best sign-up bonuses, including free access to our premium content.

RotoGrinders.com is the home of the daily fantasy sports community. Our content, rankings, member blogs, promotions and forum discussion all cater to the players that like to create a new fantasy team every day of the week. Our goal is to help all of our members make more money playing daily fantasy sports!

Bet with your head, not over it!
Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-Gambler