NFL Reid Option: Week 14

Each week, Sammy Reid will break down each position in detail, pinpointing his favorite plays at various salary ranges. Who should we be focusing our core on this week? Read below to find out!

Week 14

Everyone has a defining moment in life when they realize they’re getting old. For some, it’s sprouting their first gray hair. For others, it’s watching the children of their favorite childhood athletes get drafted. For me, it was spending last Friday night glued to C-SPAN watching a live feed of U.S. Senators voting on tax bill amendments and ultimately the bill itself.

My whole life, I’d never been that into politics. I kinda just felt like both sides were a bunch of old butt wipes trying to push their paid-for agendas onto society. I also felt like my opinion didn’t really matter, since I was just one person among hundreds of millions in this country. For my first few elections after turning 18, I didn’t even bother to vote.

I realize now that I was wrong. Not about the politicians-are-butt wipes thing, but that my opinion doesn’t matter. It does matter, and it matters for many reasons. Chief among them is that if I don’t vote, sure, nothing changes. But if a bunch of people feel that way and don’t vote, a whole group of people loses its voice, and that has a substantial effect on society. While it’s true that almost all politicians are butt wipes, not all butt wipes are created equal; the more I’ve learned, the more I’ve come to believe that one side is a good amount crappier than the other. Another reason having an opinion matters is that it forces you to stay informed – assuming of course, that you actually care about your opinions being informed. (Way too many people seem to not care about this, but they’re probably not the ones reading this column, if we’re being honest). And staying informed is one of the true keys to success in this world.

Imagine how much time you spend informing yourself about DFS. If you’re anything like the typical DFS player, you probably read five to 10 different columns each week, follow news on Twitter, consume a handful of podcasts, and do some of your own research as well. The best DFS players tend to be the most well-informed, and the same tends to be true in many of life’s sub-spaces.

If you look at some of the most successful DFS players out there, you’ll notice that DFS isn’t their only mode of income. Often times, DFS is just part of an expected value-wagering portfolio that includes things like poker, crypto investing, prop betting, stocks, sports betting, and/or real estate flipping. Staying informed about laws, policies, and regulations – and understanding the effects they have – in each of those spaces can be a huge source of EV.

Staying informed about politics can certainly be maddening. Major news outlets on both sides are egregiously biased to the point of not being actual news, and 80% of people who talk politics on Twitter are brainless kooks who simply regurgitate what’s been fed to them by whatever biased new outlet they prefer (and the other 20% are bots). So then, what’s the best way to stay au fait about politics? I’m sure there are plenty of good avenues, but personally I try to find the most moderate news sources I can and consume that content through a critical eye. Meaning that I try to consume the “what” while using logic to figure out the “why” for myself.

It’s no different when it comes to DFS. There are a million different sites and a million different podcasts out there and a good deal of it it is -EV. If you try to consume it all, you’ll be overloaded with conflicting opinions and you’ll get nowhere. Choose a few sources you trust and even then, consume that content with a critical eye. Any analyst worth a damn can tell you “what” happened, it’s the ones that can accurately get to the “why” and thus the “what will” who are the true gems.

In the end it’s up to you, the player, to decipher if someone’s “why” and “what will” make logical sense. Even better if you can take the data presented and come to those conclusions yourself. Four weeks is what we’ve got left in the NFL regular season, and for most of us, how we perform in the final quarter will determine the ultimate story of our season; effectively sorting through the BS has never been more important than it is right now. When it comes to politics and DFS, it’s far better to #StayWoke than to #GoBroke.

On a typical NFL week I put together multiple cash game lineups across multiple sites which will have significant player overlap. I diversify to hedge on the players I don’t feel as strongly about to reduce variance in a game where it’s inherent. The players I feel strongest about will be in the majority of my lineups – these are my “high exposure” picks. The “moderate exposure” players will be in roughly half of my lineups, and the “GPP” picks are higher-risk, high-reward plays that I believe will be under-owned by the masses. The GPP options listed aren’t the only guys I’ll be using in tournaments, but more so the gems I see as having the best ownership-to-upside ratio on the board.

(As always, all odds listed are accurate at time of writing, and may shift throughout the week. The Reid Option focuses exclusively on the main slate.)


Philip Rivers vs WAS ($6800 DK, $8100 FD, $13,700 FDRAFT) – There’s so much value available on this slate, it’s very easy to pay up for QB if you want to. Rivers’ fantasy floor is strong like his swimmers, owing to his solid blend of volume (431 attempts, 4th in the NFL) and efficiency (7.9 A/YA, 8th in the NFL). Rivers also checks the boxes of being a home favorite with a strong implied team total (26.0 points, tied for the highest of the main slate), and his favorite targets – Keenan Allen, Melvin Gordon, and Hunter Henry – rate to see very little time against the ‘Skins strongest coverage defenders (Josh Norman and Bashaud Breeland).

Blaine Gabbert vs TEN ($4800 DK, $6600 FD, $10,600 FDRAFT) – Unlike the fishy Nemo Nohling, I know when it’s #GabbertWeek, and it’s my duty to tell you my friends that the time is here. Now look, I know what you’re thinking: “Wait, didn’t you say the same thing about Fish Mattek and #HundleyWeek last week?” And the answer is yes, yes I did. Moving on.

In his three starts this season, Gabbert has averaged 239.7 YPG through the air and and an additional 14.0 YPG on the ground while facing two of the league’s strongest defenses (JAX and LAR). This week he draws the heinous Titans pass defense, a shamefully inept group that per Mark Beers has allowed opposing QBs to score 1.7 fantasy points per game above their average this season – a fairly significant mark when you’re talking about a near-min priced quarterback and accounting for the fact that this comes despite Tennessee facing one of the softest QB schedules of any team this season.


Jameis Winston vs DET ($5900 DK, $7200 FD, $10,800 FDRAFT) – Detroit has allowed villain QBs to score an astounding 7.8 fantasy points over their average over the past five weeks, a mark that makes Jameis Winston – a man who’s thrown for average of 294.6 in his full games this season – a screaming value at his price tag. I’d have no issues playing him in cash, but more importantly he’ll be one of my highest exposure GPP QBs this weekend.


Giovani Bernard vs CHI ($3100 DK, $5100 FD, $6000 FDRAFT) – In a gratifying twist of irony, Joe Mixon got his head smashed on Monday night and provides us with our first free square of the week should he failed to be cleared for this Sunday’s game against the Bears. After Mixon went out last week, Gio played all 44 of the Bengals’ offensive snaps and accounted for 96 total yards on 15 touches against Pittsburgh’s stout run defense. While Chicago’s rush D is slightly above average by most metrics, Gio rates to see a gaggle of touches considering his elite projected snap share and positive gamescript as a six-point home favorite.


LeSean McCoy vs IND ($7200 DK, $9000 FD, $14,800 FDRAFT) – McCoy’s price as the RB1 on FanDuel seems high, but at RB3 – $900 cheaper than RB1 Todd Gurley – Shady checks in as a strong high-priced value play on DraftKings. While his team workload share has fallen from its elite early-season heights, Shady still hasn’t seen anything below 30% in a home game this season. And while the line for the game still hasn’t been posted as of this writing (Tyrod Taylor’s status is TBD), Buffalo will surely be a solid home favorite no matter who starts for them.

Lamar Miller vs SF ($5800 DK, $6600 FD, $10,900 FDRAFT) – Rostering Lamar Miller is sort of like using a public restroom for a number two; it’s never a good idea per se, but sometimes you just don’t have another good option. And yeah, with the Steelers, Pats, Jaguars, Seahawks, Falcons, and Saints all unavailable on the Main Slate, there are few reasonable options available to us at running back this week. For all his flaws (ie: not actually being good at football), Miller’s handled 18.8 touches and 3.2 targets per game this season – a strong workload considering his price point. The 49ers don’t represent much of a threat to that workload – they’ve faced an NFL-high 30.7 rushing attempts per game – making Miller an unappealing yet practical option for your number two.


Alfred Morris @ NYG ($5500 DK, $6800 FD, $9800 FDRAFT) – Morris has been obscenely efficient this season, averaging 5.4 YPC – 1.4 yards per tote better than Ezekiel Elliott did. In last week’s game, we finally saw Dallas take a lead and control the game with their rush, giving Morris 27 totes on the way to a massive 127 yard, one touchdown game. The Cowboys opened the week as 4.5-point favorites, giving them a solid chance to play from ahead again in this contest, and the Giants’ lowly rush defense has allowed villain RBs to score 3.3 fantasy points over their average over the past five games, the sixth-highest mark in the NFL.


Josh Gordon vs GB ($5500 DK, $6700 FD, $12,200 FDRAFT)

It was a beautiful day, for a beat down
I had Flash Gordon jammed in, I was vibin’
The games flew by, me and Nate were winning
Little overlay, I was thrivin’

Yeah I’m runnin’ down a dream
Josh Gordon makin’ money for me
Rewriting his history
I’ll follow wherever he leads
Runnin’ down a dream …

He looked so good, like anything was possible
Rippin’ off huge gains, like Talib rips off chains
His whole first game, JG was unguardable
Sober as a judge, no cocaine

Yeah I’m runnin’ down a dream
Josh Gordon makin’ money for me
Rewriting his history
I’ll follow wherever he leads
Runnin’ down a dream …

As I watched on, he torched Green Bay
He was faster than light, defied space-time
There’s something good, about 200 air yards
All I need is for, Kizer to drop dimes

Yeah I’m runnin’ down a dream
Josh Gordon makin’ money for me
Rewriting his history
I’ll follow wherever he leads
Runnin’ down a dream …


Larry Fitzgerald vs TEN ($6500 DK, $7600 FD, $13,500 FDRAFT) – DraftKings’ pricing algorithm must have some sort of mathematical misgiving about players of advanced age, or perhaps it just can’t properly compute Fitz’s old man power – among WRs available on the Main Slate, Fitz ranks 1st in receptions (82), 3rd in targets (116), and 6th in rec yards (878), yet is priced as just the WR10, just 76% of the cost of the WR1. For me, that’s value I can’t pass up in DK cash games, especially against a Titans defense that leaks fantasy points like Facebook leaks personal information.

DeAndre Hopkins vs SF ($8500 DK, $8600 FD, $13,900 FDRAFT) – Nuk finally got priced up, but there’s so much value available on this slate I haven’t had any problems jamming him without regret. Nuk remains the NFL leader in team target share (33%) and is 6th in team air yards share (41%), which makes him a weekly play no matter who he’s facing off against. This week however, he’s facing the atrocious CB tandem of Dontae Johnson and Ahkello Witherspoon, a couple blokes who couldn’t stop a nosebleed.


Michael Crabtree ($6700 DK, $7100 FD, $11,300 FDRAFT) and Amari Cooper @ KC ($5800 DK, $7000 FD, $11,300 FDRAFT) – Marcus Peters is suspended. Derrelle Revis is older than sand. Kenneth Acker gets burned harder than Davis Mattek’s Thanksgiving turkey. It’s gonna be a field day for one of these Raider wideouts (I never can tell which one), but I’ll be alternating ownership between them in my GPP lineups, likely with a slant to Amari due to his nice price discount.


Editor’s Note: Ertz was cleared to practice but remains in the concussion protocol.

Trey Burton @ LAR ($2900 DK, $4500 FD, $5000 FDRAFT)Zach Ertz, fantasy’s TE3, looks unlikely to suit up this Sunday, giving us a second free square in Burton. In Ertz’s first missed game this season, Trey B put up a 2/41/1 line on four targets, and last week he went 4/42/0 on seven targets in less than a half of play. Houston’s Stephen Anderson (12 targets last week) is also firmly on the radar and would be my cheap stand-in for Burton if Ertz recovers in time to play, also duel-cheap TE lineups on DK open up myriad possibilities without sacrificing value.


Travis Kelce vs OAK ($7400 DK, $8000 FD, $13,300 FDRAFT) – With Gronk off the slate and Ertz doubtful, Kelce’s projection dwarfs that of any other TE on the Main Slate. We won’t get the ownership scarcity we got last week after he went HAM, but there are plenty of other spots we can differentiate – including the aforementioned 2-TE construction on DK and FantasyDraft.


Bengals vs CHI ($3300 DK, $4600 FD, $6500 FDRAFT) – In Mitch Trubisky’s eight starts, opposing DSTs have averaged 10.0 DK ppg, despite five of those eight games going down in Soldier Field. On the road – BAL, NO, @PHI – the DSTs have scored 20, eight, and 13 points, respectively. The Bengals may not be great, but Trubisky’s worse.

Thanks for reading, everyone! Let’s go make some money in Week 14.

Meet the Experts Content Posting Times

About the Author

  • Sammy Reid (SammyReid)

  • Sammy is a former online poker professional and Hearts champion who has been playing competitive fantasy sports for more than 15 years. A student of both sports and game theory, Sammy has been grinding DFS cash games since 2013. You can find more of his work in the 2017 edition of Joe Pisapia’s Fantasy Black Book, at,, and the Baseballholics Anonymous podcast.


  • KardiacChris

    Like Talib rips off chains hahaha. Good stuff. Awesome read as usual.

  • mewhitenoise

    RG Contributor

    • Blogger of the Month

    “In a gratifying twist of irony, Joe Mixon got his head smashed on Monday night…”

  • Southie777

    Jaysus, with the politics. People can disagree with you and not be horrible human beings, just remember that.

  • boogereatingmoron

    • 2017 FanDuel WFBC Finalist

    • 2019 FanDuel WFBC Finalist

    RIP Tom Petty

  • Mperry007

    Loved the intro man and enjoy the column every week. We should be cosignent of where we get our information from and how we receive it in all facites of life.

  • idontluvdemhos

    pretty sick to take pleasure in a guy suffering a concussion. Seek help.

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