NFL Week 1 Lines and Betting Picks for Sunday, September 13

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NFL Week 1 kicked off on Thursday with the Texans vs. Chiefs, as Patrick Mahomes & Co. began their title defense with a 34-20 victory. There are still 15 games left, including the week’s most anticipated matchup between Drew Brees and Tom Brady. Here are NFL week 1 betting lines and picks from across the online sports betting industry for Sunday, September 13, 2020.

NFL Week 1 Lines and Odds Comparison

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NFL Week 1 Betting Picks for Sunday

Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers -6.5, O/U 48

There’s some hype surrounding the Arizona Cardinals heading into Week 1, in part, because second-year quarterback Kyler Murray will be throwing to DeAndre Hopkins. However, I’m not sold.

The 49ers have the advantage in nearly every facet of this game. I guess that’s why oddsmakers favored them by nearly a touchdown. But I think they have a big enough advantage to cover the large spread.

For one, they have a coaching advantage. While I’m a believer in Kliff Kingsbury’s Air Raid offense, I’m not as much of a believer in him properly preparing his team in these unprecedented circumstances or making optimal in-game decisions. During his time at Texas Tech, Kingsbury’s teams were consistently one of the nation’s most undisciplined teams. That trend continued in Kingbury’s first year as an NFL head coach, with the Cardinals committing the second-most penalties per game among NFC teams. Kingsbury also routinely makes sub-optimal decisions, often choosing to kick field goals when his team is better off attempting short-yardage fourth-down conversions.

Using GridironIQ, an exclusive “DFS” and NFL betting tool for Premium subscribers, we see that the 49ers were the second-best team against the pass in terms of Pass Success (37.93%) and Pass EPA (-107.29) last year. The 49ers defense was also one of the best teams when it came to Sack Percentage.

This is a tough matchup for the Cardinals. I’m fading Kingsbury and backing the 49ers defense in Week 1.

Thanks to RotoGrinders NFL Odds tool, we can quickly find where the best price is among various US sportsbooks. While the 49ers are -7 at FanDuel, we can bet on 49ers -6.5 at PointsBet.

NFL Betting Pick: 49ers -6.5

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LA Chargers vs. Cincinnati Bengals +3, O/U 42

The Chargers and Bengals will put their new starting quarterbacks on display in this Week 1 afternoon matchup. For the Chargers, it’s veteran Tyrod Taylor. For the Bengals, it’s Rookie of the Year betting favorite and 2020 National Champion Joe Burrow.

While Taylor hasn’t started a game since Week 1 in 2018, after suffering a hand injury and being subsequently replaced by Baker Mayfield, Taylor did spend a season in Los Angeles as Philip Rivers backup.

If you’ve read my Super Bowl picks and predictions, you’ll know I’m bullish on both the Chargers and Taylor, not to mention Anthony Lynn’s odds of winning Coach of the Year.

The Chargers are built to win now. Unfortunately, they are without Derwin James but hope the addition of Chris Harris can partially make up for his absence. Harris and All-Pro pass-rusher Joey Bosa will both be a serious issue for Burrow in his first NFL game. Remember, unlike previous seasons, rookie quarterbacks and new head coaches, which the Bengals both have, are playing without the luxury of preseason reps. While we can’t quantify precisely how much that will hurt teams, I’m betting the disadvantage will be more significant than oddsmakers are considering.

NFL Betting Pick: Chargers -3

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Dallas Cowboys vs. Los Angeles Rams +3, O/U 52

I’m begrudgingly high on the Dallas Cowboys this season. However, I’m hesitant to bet on them Week 1 for a couple of reasons.

First, the Cowboys have a new head coach in Mike McCarthy. The transition will likely be smoother with OC Kellen Moore staying in Dallas than it would have been without, but I still expect more early hiccups for teams with new head coaches than we typically see.

On top of that, the Cowboys will be without a key offensive lineman. Dallas placed La’el Collins on the IR over the weekend. Collins is dealing with a hip injury, and the Cowboys are thin with replacement options. That’s never a good sign when Aaron Donald is waiting on the other side of the line of scrimmage.

It’s not only the Cowboys who have offensive line concerns ahead of Week 1, but their new-look defensive line should pose a problem for the Rams’ offensive line.

Betting Picks: Rams +3, Under 52

NFL Week 1 Betting Card

San Francisco 49ers -6.5, Risking 1.10 Unit to Win 1
Los Angeles Chargers -3, Risking 1.10 Unit to Win 1
Los Angeles Rams +3, Risking 1.10 Unit to Win 1
DAL/LAC Under 52, Risking 1.10 Unit to Win 1

Image Credit: USA Today Sports Images

About the Author

schmitto
Matt Schmitto (schmitto)

Matt Schmitto is an Organic Strategy Lead for Better Collective. He was introduced to daily fantasy sports in 2012 and soon became a member at RotoGrinders. Seven years later, Schmitto joined RotoGrinders Network full time as a staff writer shortly after the Supreme Court overturned PASPA. He has since covered important stories in the sports betting and fantasy sports industries for sites like SportsHandle and USBets and has had roles as a sports betting editor and commercial content manager. He continues to play DFS and loves placing Futures bets at sportsbooks. His favorite DFS sites are DraftKings, Underdog Fantasy, and PrizePicks. Follow Schmitto on Twitter – @Matt_Schmitto