Super Bowl Odds, Picks, and Predictions for This Season
The 2020 NFL season is near, as the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs prepare to take on the Houston Texans on Thursday, Sept. 10. To no one’s surprise, the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes are the betting favorites to win Super Bowl 55 in Tampa Bay. In this article, we’ll break down Super Bowl betting tips, including predictions and picks as to who will make it to the Big Show this season. But first, here are the Super Bowl odds for all 32 NFL teams, courtesy of our friends at FanDuel Sportsbook.
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2020 Super Bowl Betting Odds
All odds are subject to change and accurate at FanDuel Sportsbook as of Sep. 8, 2020.
- Kansas City Chiefs +650
- Baltimore Ravens +650
- San Francisco +900
- New Orleans +1200
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1500
- Dallas Cowboys +1600
- Philadelphia Eagles +2000
- Seattle Seahawks +2000
- New England Patriots +2300
- Indianapolis +2300
- Minnesota Vikings +2500
- Pittsburgh Steelers +2500
- Buffalo Bills +2800
- Tennessee Titans +3000
- Green Bay Packers +3100
- Cleveland Browns +3400
- Los Angeles Chargers +3500
- Los Angeles Rams +4000
- Chicago Bears +4400
- Arizona Cardinals +5000
- Atlanta Falcons +5000
- Houston Texans +5000
- Denver Broncos +6000
- Las Vegas Raiders +6000
- Detroit Lions +6600
- Miami Dolphins +8000
- New York Giants +8500
- New York Jets +8500
- Carolina Panthers +12000
- Cincinnati Bengals +17000
- Washington +17000
- Jacksonville Jaguars +20000
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2020-21 Super Bowl Betting Favorites
Kansas City Chiefs +650 (FanDuel)
This is isn’t a sexy pick but there’s a case to be made that there’s still value on the Kansas City Chiefs even as betting favorites, at these short odds.
First, the Chiefs have slightly longer odds than either the Rams or Patriots had last year. And in my estimation, this Chiefs team, after re-signing Sammy Watkins, extending tight end Travis Kelce to a long-term deal, and drafting Clyde Edwards-Helaire, are better than most people thought either the Rams or Patriots were this time last year.
Sure, the Patriots with Tom Brady were the greatest dynasty in the NFL history. And who knows, the Patriots might not be finished yet now that they have Cam Newton. But looking back at some of their Super Bowl odds during the Belichick-Brady heyday, there were times when the Patriots entered seasons with a with as short as +350 to +500 odds to win the Super Bowl.
Will the Chiefs and Mahomes win six Super Bowls over the next 15-20 years like Brady did in New England? Probably not but I don’t think it’s beyond question. I’m as all-in on the Chiefs and Mahomes as anyone. They’re certainly capable of being the next football dynasty. I think they’re going to win again this season, and I’m not sure we’ll see them with longer odds than +700 anytime soon.
Travis Kelce Over 7.5 Touchdowns
Baltimore Ravens +650 (FOX Bet)
At FanDuel, the Ravens are tied with Chiefs as Super Bowl favorites atop Super Bowl odds sheets, but there’s reason to stay away or at least sit back on the Ravens’ Super Bowl odds.
For one, they’re in the same conference as the Chiefs. Being as bullish on the Chiefs as I am, it’s tough to back anyone else in the AFC, especially a team like the Ravens with short odds. The road to Tampa Bay for Super Bowl 55 likely goes through Kansas City. At the least it probably goes through Mahomes, who, as he showed when winning Super Bowl MVP, is going to be tough to beat no matter how good your defense is or where the game is played.
Luckily for the Ravens, unlike their 2001 Super Bowl victory, they don’t have to rely solely on their defense. With Lamar Jackson and emerging receiver Marquise Brown, not to mention tight end in Mark Andrews, Baltimore has a lethal offense that is tough to contain on the ground and through the air. However, with a year of film on Lamar Jackson, defenses should be better prepared to slow him down. Jackson is also an injury liability with the way he runs the ball, which is why I prefer to wait to bet on the Ravens. If the Ravens have a few hiccups and start the season 5-4, that’s the time I want to bet on them. We did the same thing with the Chiefs last year. After starting 5-4, we were able to “buy low” and bet on them to win the Super Bowl at +1200 odds. That’s the best way to approach the Ravens this season.
San Francisco 49ers +1000 (PointsBet)
The 49ers fell short against the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl 54 despite jumping out to an early lead. They have all the pieces, including one of the brightest young head coaches in the NFL, to make it back in 2021. Looking back at the 49ers road to an NFC Championship was truly remarkable. In 2018 they only won four games and had the No. 2 pick in the NFL Draft. While the 49ers have a stout defense and one of the best offensive play-callers in the game in Kyle Shanahan, they need better play from quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. Until then, I’m staying away.
New Orleans Saints +1200 (FOX Bet)
The New Orleans Saints continue to be one of the more consistent and competitive teams in the NFC as veteran quarterback Drew Brees looks to add a second Super Bowl victory to his Hall-of-Fame career. Doing so got a little bit more difficult with the addition of Tom Brady in the NFC South. Still, the Saints have one of the best QB/RB/WR trios in the NFL with Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas. One thing that might be diminished is their home-field advantage in the Super Dome, considering the venue will likely be operating a lower capacity, thus a less hostile environment for visiting teams. That coupled with the fact that they’re playing in a tough NFC South division keeps them off my Super Bowl betting card.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1500 (FanDuel)
It’s no surprise that the arrival of Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski has brought a ton of betting action on the Bucs to win the Super Bowl at online sports betting sites. In fact, DraftKings Sportsbook reports they have taken twice as many Super Bowl wagers on the Bucs than the next closest team, the Kansas City Chiefs. During the offseason, I wrote why I thought the Buccaneers were overvalued. Adding to the hype, Tampa Bay signed Leonard Fournette on Sept. 2 but don’t let that fool you. The Bucs remain one of the most-bet and overvalued teams at sportsbooks.
Dallas Cowboys +1700 (PointsBet)
I previously wrote about why you should bet on Mike McCarthy to win Coach of the Year. He was +2000 at BetMGM at the time, but unfortunately, those odds have shortened since. However, I still don’t mind taking McCarthy +1400.
Of course, I wouldn’t be betting on someone to win Coach of the Year if I didn’t think their team was going to be good. I’m no fan of the Cowboys but they’re going to have one of the best offenses in the NFC. They were great in 2019, and with the addition of CeeDee Lamb, the Cowboys offense could be even better this year if McCarthy gives OC Kellen Moore the reins.
Dallas Cowboys +1700 – This is my favorite Super Bowl bet from the NFC. The Conference is wide open and the Cowboys can be great if their defense steps up. The recent addition of Everson Griffen to the defensive line helps their cause. The Cowboys are +1700 at PointsBet but as short as +1300 at other sportsbooks.
Mike McCarthy Coach of the Year +1400
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2020 Super Bowl Betting Mid-Tier Odds
Seattle Seahawks +2200 (FOX Bet)
Russell Wilson continues to wow defenses, but Pete Carroll continues to run the ball far too often. I know Carroll has made it to a Super Bowl before but the Seahawks’ offensive philosophy (if you want to call it that) puts them behind the eight-ball. Would I be shocked if Wilson leads the Seahawks to another Super Bowl appearance? Not at all. But they’re playing at a significant disadvantage if they stick to the type of game plans we’ve seen in recent years.
Philadelphia Eagles +2500 (BetMGM)
Going back to the NFC East, the Eagles and head coach Doug Pederson hope to return to the Super Bowl. They’re in a much better position to do so this year than last. 2019 plagued the Eagles with injuries from top to bottom, turning their receiving corps into a corpse. Pederson is one of the sharpest coaches in the NFL, consistently making mathematical decisions to go for fourth-down and two-point conversions. If you’re afraid the Cowboys ill underachieve, as they do so often, then consider betting on the Eagles +2500 at BetMGM instead.
New England Patriots +2500 (PointsBet)
Brady or Belichick, who is more responsible for the Patriots’ success? We’ll soon be a little closer to an answer thanks to event that have transpired over the last few months. The Patriots now have Cam Newton, who has, by all reports, shined during training camp. Newton isn’t a stranger to NFL MVPs or Super Bowl appearances. The biggest question is whether Newton is truly healthy or not. If Belichick signed and then named him the starter, you have to think he’s good to go. I expect Belichick to use him aggressively, showing no hesitation to utilize his dual-threat capabilities. Unfortunately for Cam, he is surrounded by arguably the worst skill position talent in the NFL.
Cam Newton Over 3150.5 yards (-110 at BetMGM) – We’re essentially getting an injury discount with this line. Take the Over and let’s hope he stays healthy for at least 13(ish) games.
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Super Bowl Betting Tips: Finding Value on Longshots
Before the 2019 season, the 49ers were between +4000 and +5000 to win the Super Bowl, as were the Ravens. In 2018, Mahomes’ first-year starting, the Chiefs were roughly +4000, and the Eagles were as long as +6000 in the offseason ahead of their 2017 Super Bowl run. All of that to say, you can find value in NFL odds that are farther down the betting board. That doesn’t mean you should go around throwing money on just anyone. Look at the teams’ talent, ask why sportsbooks are giving them long odds, and see which teams you can paint a reasonable path (or story) to the Super Bowl.
For example, if you thought there was a reasonable chance that Mahomes or Jackson would break out in ’18 and ’19, respectively, you might have seen the value in their teams’ Super Bowl odds while the Chiefs and Ravens were still flying under the radar.
Here are the longshot teams I have my eyes on in 2020.
Los Angeles Chargers +4500 (PointsBet)
The Los Angeles Chargers are flying under the radar after cutting ties with long-time quarterback Phillip Rivers and running back Melvin Gordon. But the departures aren’t as big of a deal as the public believes. Rivers, 38, was already on the decline before leaving for Indianapolis, and Austin Ekeler proved he can take over the running back role without the Chargers offense missing a beat.
The Chargers also rebuilt their offensive line by signing Bryan Bulaga and trading for Trai Turner, a five-time pro bowler at right guard. There are some uncertainties on the left side of the ball but, overall, the additions of Bulaga and Turner are improvements and should give quarterback Tyrod Taylor some comfort behind center as he looks for a trio of receiving weapons in Mike Williams, Keenan Allen, and Hunter Henry, not to mention Ekeler as a threat from the backfield.
Defensively, the Chargers are just fine despite losing Derwin James for the season. Luckily the Chargers front office added cornerback Chris Harris to an already star-studded defense that includes Pro Bowl pass-rusher Joey Bosa.
In sum, the Chargers are built to win right now. They need Taylor and the left side of their offensive line to surprise people and exceed expectations in order to do so, which certainly isn’t out of the question. My biggest hesitation is the fact that the Chargers have to play Mahomes and the Chiefs twice. Unless something crazy happens, the Chargers, if they make the playoffs, will likely be playing as a wild card team. And when we look back at 2019’s odds for wild card teams ahead of the first round of the playoffs, such as the Bills +3500, Vikings +4000, Titans +7500, we might be better waiting to see how the season plays out before betting on them.
Chargers +4500 to win the Super Bowl
Anthony Lynn +2800 to Win Coach of the Year (FanDuel)
Tyrod Taylor +15000 to Win NFL MVP (PointsBet)
Chicago Bears +5000 (PointsBet)
I already touched on the Bears’ outlook with a Chicago Bears 2020 betting preview, so I’ll be brief here. Basically, the Bears were 12-4 just two seasons ago. They finished a mediocre 8-8 in 2019, but they still have a great defense, a defense that can almost single-handedly win games if they cause a couple of turnovers. Head coach Matt Nagy recently named Mitchell Trubisky the starter over Nick Foles. Trubisky was awful in his third year, but there’s still room for improvement if he’s even half the prospect most people thought he was in 2017. Additionally, the NFC North is wide open. The Packers overachieved in 2019 and aren’t near as good as their 13-3 record was. The Vikings lost Stefon Diggs, and the Lions are, well, the Lions. As I previously wrote, it might be best to see what they do at Detroit in Week 1 and then against the Giants, Falcons, and Colts. If they lose one of those first two games, the situation is probably pretty dire. And if they happen to look solid in those first few weeks, oddsmakers are unlikely to react too drastically wins against the Lions and Giants, leaving us a solid price after a couple of games worth of film.
Bears +425 to win the NFC North
Cincinnati Bengals +17000 (FanDuel)
This is crazy but not as crazy as it sounds; hear me out. The Bengals return wide receiver A.J. Green to what is an already talented supporting cast for rookie quarterback Joe Burrow. If Burrow is truly a generational quarterback, the kind we’ve seen other franchises recently draft, like Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and even Deshaun Watson — if Burrow ends up in the conversation with those guys before the season’s end, I like the Bengals’ chances to, at the very least, be competitive. That’s a bold task, and it’s not something I’m necessarily predicting, but a slight chance is all I need to justify a 170-1 longshot bet.
For more general NFL betting tips, check out our NFL betting guide.
Image Credit: USA Today Sports Images