NFL Week 10 Survivor Pool Picks, Advice, and Strategy
NFL betting analyst Nick Galaida breaks down Week 10 Survivor Pool strategy, previewing the safest picks of the week as well as possible upsets.
NFL Week 10 Survivor Strategy and Picks
Traditionally, survivor pools require participants to simply pick the winner of one NFL game straight up each week. The challenging part of eliminator tournaments is that you can only use a team once during the season. In 2022, this means that you will need to select 18 of the 32 teams to finish the regular season, so there will be weeks during which you will not be able to have an elite roster at your disposal.
Each week in this article, we discuss red flags to try to avoid when selecting your eliminator team of the week. As a general rule, it is best to avoid six contexts when considering options for a survivor league:
1. Intra-division games
2. Primetime games
3. Away teams with poor defenses
4. Non-elite teams playing on a short week
5. Non-elite teams with a rest disadvantage
6. Teams who are playing an opponent off of their bye week
Trust this team in Week 10: Philadelphia Eagles
Entering Week 10, the Philadelphia Eagles remain the only team in the National Football League without a loss. After eight games, the Eagles have four road victories, four home victories, two wins against division opponents, five wins within the conference, and the best point differential in the NFC. Some critics will argue that the Eagles’ early season success is largely attributable to facing a number of weak opponents, but this group still has notable wins against the Minnesota Vikings, Dallas Cowboys, as well as competitive teams such as Jacksonville Jaguars and Arizona Cardinals. The advanced analytics also support the fact that the Eagles are one of the best teams in the league. As of this writing, Philadelphia ranks 3rd in offensive EPA/play and 4th in defensive EPA/play. In their last two contests, the Eagles have handily defeated inferior opponents – securing victories against both the Pittsburgh Steelers and Houston Texans. In Week 10, Philadelphia will have a slightly more difficult matchup against the Washington Commanders, which rank 10th in defensive EPA/play across the last three weeks. Still, the Eagles are the better team on both sides of the ball in this NFC East battle. Until proven otherwise, bettors should have no reservations in trusting Philadelphia.
Week 10 Fade: San Francisco 49ers
Week 1 Fade: Indianapolis Colts (Result: Tied 20-20 against the Houston Texans)
Week 2 Fade: Green Bay Packers (Result: Packers defeated Bears 27-10)
Week 3 Fade: Buffalo Bills (Result: Bills lost to Dolphins 21-19)
Week 4 Fade: Los Angeles Chargers (Result: Chargers defeated Texans 34-24)
Week 5 Fade: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Result: Buccaneers defeated Falcons 21-15)
Week 6 Fade: Green Bay Packers (Result: Packers lost to Jets 27-10)
Week 7 Fade: Los Angeles Chargers (Result: Chargers lost to Seahawks 37-23)
Week 8 Fade: Dallas Cowboys (Result: Cowboys defeated Bears 49-29)
Week 9 Fade: Cincinnati Bengals (Result: Bengals defeated Panthers 42-21)
In the first nine weeks of the season, four of the teams that we have recommended fading in this article have lost – and each team was favored by at least a touchdown at the time of publishing. In Week 10, we recommend that bettors tread carefully with the San Francisco 49ers.
Admittedly, each of the three teams favored by at least a touchdown appear to be appropriately large favorites this weekend. As we get deeper and deeper into the NFL season, lines will become more sharp and expectations will more closely match outcomes on a weekly basis – making it unlikely that bettors will see an abundance of upsets, which was the case during the first two months of the campaign.
Still, if there is one heavy favorite that should be avoided on Sunday – it is the 49ers. In their Week 10 matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers, San Francisco holds only a minor advantage in offensive EPA/play. Further concerning is the fact that the 49ers rank 32nd in the NFL in defensive EPA/play since Emmanuel Moseley went down with a season-ending injury in October against the Carolina Panthers.
The 49ers have the benefit of coming off of a bye week, in addition to home field advantage on Sunday. Nevertheless, there are red flags here that make San Francisco the least-safe of the heavy favorites in Week 10. Proceed with caution if trusting the 49ers this weekend.
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