NFL Week 10 Survivor Pool Picks, Advice, and Strategy (2023)
NFL betting analyst Nick Galaida breaks down Week 10 Survivor Pool strategy, previewing the safest picks of the week as well as possible upsets.
NFL Week 10 Survivor Strategy and Picks
Though this is NOT a betting article, it is worth noting that each of our first nine survivor recommendations have covered the spread this season. During the first half of the regular season, we did an excellent job avoiding tightly-contested games, which is where the most variance and the toughest losses tend to occur. In Week 10, we hope to have another easy winner!
In traditional survivor pools, participants are required to select a winner of one NFL game straight-up each week. In eliminator tournaments, the rules are more challenging – allowing participants to use a team only one time throughout the course of the regular season. In 2023, this means that participants will need to select 18 of the 32 teams to finish the regular season. Consequently, there will be weeks when you will not be able to select an elite roster with a favorable matchup.
Each week in this RotoGrinders article, we will identify one trustworthy favorite and pick one favorite that is on upset alert. During the first nine weeks of last season, four of our teams that were on upset alert lost outright, despite all of those teams being favored by at least one score at the time of writing.
Below, we have our list of red flags to try to avoid when selecting your eliminator team of the week. As a general rule, it is best to avoid six contexts when choosing your team:
1. Intra-division games
2. Primetime games
3. Away teams with poor defenses
4. Non-elite teams playing on a short week
5. Non-elite teams with a rest disadvantage
6. Teams who are playing an opponent off of their bye week
Trust this team in Week 10: Cincinnati Bengals
Week 1 Trust this team: Baltimore Ravens (Result: Won 25-9 against the Houston Texans)
Week 2 Trust this team: Dallas Cowboys (Result: Won 30-10 against the New York Jets)
Week 3 Trust this team: San Francisco 49ers (Result: Won 30-12 against the New York Giants)
Week 4 Trust this team: Los Angeles Chargers (Result: Won 24-17 against the Las Vegas Raiders)
Week 5 Trust this team: Miami Dolphins (Result: Won 31-16 against the New York Giants)
Week 6 Trust this team: Kansas City Chiefs (Result: Won 19-8 against the Denver Broncos)
Week 7 Trust this team: Seattle Seahawks (Result: Won 20-10 against the Arizona Cardinals)
Week 8 Trust this team: Detroit Lions (Result: Won 24-16 against the Las Vegas Raiders)
Week 9 Trust this team: Cleveland Browns (Result: Won 27-0 against the Arizona Cardinals)
Heading into Week 10, we are fortunate enough to have six teams with a winning record still available for us to choose from as we try to effectively navigate the back nine of the 2023 NFL regular season. This weekend, our top survivor options include the Cincinnati Bengals and Buffalo Bills, both of which are favored by at least a touchdown. Buffalo’s defense has continued to struggle mightily without linebacker Matt Milano and defensive tackle DaQuan Jones on the field, which makes Cincinnati a safer pick for this upcoming Sunday.
C.J. Stroud has been sensational throughout his rookie campaign, but it goes without saying that players rarely throw for 470 passing yards in consecutive weeks. In fact, prior to his Week 9 record-setting performance against the Buccaneers, Stroud had failed to eclipse 249 passing yards in three consecutive games. Moreover, Stroud has one of his toughest matchups of the season in Week 10 against an emerging Cincinnati defense.
This year, Stroud has been fortunate to face a collection of defensive units that have struggled to put pressure on him. Other than the Ravens in Week 1 and the Colts in Week 2, none of the Texans’ opponents this year have finished in the top half of the NFL in defensive pressure rate in the week that they played Stroud. Cincinnati is likely to put a stop to that streak in Week 10. The Bengals have finished in the top-six in defensive pressure rate in each of the last three weeks in which they had a game, and they have not finished outside of the top-15 for pressure rate since Week 2.
If Cincinnati is able to get pressure on Stroud this weekend, they are likely to be able to limit the production of Houston’s young quarterback phenom. According to PFF, Stroud ranks 2nd in passer rating, 2nd in yards per attempt, and 2nd in turnover-worthy-play percentage from a clean pocket in 2023, compared to 18th in passer rating, 24th in yards per attempt, and 19th in turnover-worthy-play percentage when under pressure.
Since Week 5, the Bengals rank 3rd in offensive EPA/play and 8th in defensive EPA/play. The Texans rank 5th in offensive EPA/play and 24th in defensive EPA/play during that same stretch. If we narrow the sample size to only include post-bye games for these two teams, Cincinnati’s numbers look even better, due to the improved health of Joe Burrow.
According to Clevta, home teams favored by 7-10 points were 130-33-1 (79.8% win-rate) straight up during regular season games from 2018 to 2022. The Bengals are the more talented team on both sides of the ball in this matchup, and their defense has the ability to make Stroud look far more human than he did last weekend. Even if Ja’Marr Chase does not play, Cincinnati should be able to pull out a victory in this spot.
Week 10 Survivor Fade: Buffalo Bills
Week 1 Fade: Kansas City Chiefs (Result: Lost 21-20 against the Detroit Lions)
Week 2 Fade: Buffalo Bills (Result: Won 38-10 against the Detroit Lions)
Week 3 Fade: Philadelphia Eagles (Result: Won 25-11 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
Week 4 Fade: Dallas Cowboys (Result: Won 38-3 against the New England Patriots)
Week 5 Fade: Washington Commanders (Result: Lost 40-20 against the Chicago Bears)
Week 6 Fade: Buffalo Bills (Result: Won 14-9 against the New York Giants)
Week 7 Fade: San Francisco 49ers (Result: Lost 22-17 against the Minnesota Vikings)
Week 8 Fade: Buffalo Bills (Result: Won 24-18 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
Week 9 Fade: New Orleans Saints (Result: Won 24-17 against the Chicago Bears)
To qualify as a “Survivor Fade,” a team must be at least a 6-point favorite at the time of writing. Through nine weeks, three of our eight ‘teams to fade’ have lost outright, and six have failed to cover the spread – including each of the last five teams to “fade.”
In Week 10, the Buffalo Bills are once again our team to fade, for many of the same reasons that we have been cautious with them across the last month. In this particular matchup, Buffalo catches three of our red flags – 1) it’s a primetime game; 2) they are not an elite team, and they are playing with a rest disadvantage in this contest; 3) they are playing the Denver Broncos, which are coming off of their bye week.
Each time we have listed Buffalo as our “team to fade” in this article, they have failed to cover the spread despite being sizable favorites against their opponent. Playing on Monday Night Football in Week 10, Josh Allen and company are likely to find themselves in another highly competitive game, which survivor pool participants should attempt to avoid at all costs.
Since Week 5, Buffalo’s defense ranks 30th in EPA/play and 29th in success rate, despite the fact that they have played the New York Giants, New England Patriots, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers in that stretch – each of which ranks 23rd or worse in offensive yards per play this season. The loss of linebacker Matt Milano has made the Bills defense extremely vulnerable in the middle of the field, which has hurt their ability to stall opponent drives. Losing defensive tackle DaQuan Jones hurt their run defense and has reduced the ceiling of the team’s pass rush.
The Broncos were a complete disaster to begin the year, but they have shown signs of life in recent weeks, including a 24-9 victory against the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 8. In that victory, Denver posted a 55.0% defensive pressure rate, which led all NFL teams that weekend.
Across the last month of action, Denver has been firmly mediocre on both sides of the ball. Giving head coach Sean Payton an extra week to prepare for this nationally televised game makes them spunky enough to avoid picking against them in survivor tournaments. Do not be surprised if the Broncos find a way to win this game outright.