NFL Week 11 Player Props: Best Bets for Jackson, Dillon, and Boyd
Well… last week was an unmitigated disaster. A sweatless 0-3 performance capped by a Michael Carter 39-yard rushing performance when I needed… 40. The only thing to do is reflect, move forward, and bounce back with some Week 11 NFL props.
As mentioned, Michael Carter missed cashing in his over by a yard in what was a blowout loss to the Bills. The instant-landslide script was not helpful for a rushing yard over but Carter got close enough to truly disappoint us. Matt Ryan was gifted the perfect script for a quarterback in need of passing yards but the Cowboys rebounded in a dominant way. The Falcons could not move the all despite being behind right from the jump.
Lastly, the Courtland Sutton over was terrible. The Broncos are rife with mouths to feed and while Sutton is an uber-talented player, the return of Jerry Jeudy is only going to split the pot. The books were wise to keep that number low. Sutton never really got very close and could never find enough space to break a long play. In hindsight, I need to do better.
So, after the dust settled after Week 10, our total is in the negative for the first time since last football season — in Week 10! I am excited for the challenge of salvaging this season and finishing in the black when picking a QB, RB, and WR/TE prop each week. We start this week.
Make sure to check out our game breakdowns in the sports betting section and some NFL betting tips prior to diving into this weekend’s action.
NFL Week 11 Player Props
Lamar Jackson Over/Under 245.5 Passing Yards
Last weekend, I learned a pricey lesson betting only overs. The public loves overs — typically, leaving value in going under. Lesson learned, Joe. Who better to attack an under than a road quarterback who has recently been white-hot?
Lamar Jackson put together quite the stretch with his arm over a span of four home games. On the road in Miami last Thursday, the Ravens received a wake-up call — Jackson throwing for only 238 yards in a terrible loss. On the road in Chicago? Cold? Against a relatively, decent Bears defense? Yes, please.
The Bears are in the middle of the pack with regard to pass defense. Certainly not the vaunted defense of recent years, the Bears keep quarterbacks in check despite a 7+ passing yard per attempt average. However, the Bears’ rushing defense leaves much to be desired. Ceding 4.4 rushing yards per attempt, the Bears average 122.5 yards per game on the ground. I can see the Ravens’ rushing attack, including Lamar, getting plenty of work in a closer game than indicated by the point spread. Slam the under on MGM!
PROP: 1.15u on Jackson Under 245.5 Yards (-115) at BetMGM
AJ Dillon Over/Under 18.5 Carries
Without Aaron Jones, RotoGrinders projects AJ Dillon to be the most popular running back on the DFS slate. Dillon’s popularity is pretty likely given the role he carved out when Aaron Jones was healthy. Now, the only back in town, Dillon will assume most of the rushing volume for the Packers.
That said, Dillon only exceeded 20 carries for the first time last week against Seattle to middling success. With only 66 rushing yards, I won’t be shocked if the Packers… ahem, Aaron Rodgers… decides to throw the ball more often than not on the road against the Vikings. Averaging slightly more than 26 rushing attempts per game as a team, Dillon will need to handle a high percentage of those attempts to touch the ball 19 times. The Packers are barely a favorite in this game and while the Vikings struggle to stop the run, Rodgers will want to pepper Davante Adams often throughout the contest.
I think I will opt to play Dillon on most DFS sites but want to take advantage of a number that feels a bit bloated. Another under on BetMGM, please!
PROP: 1.1u on Dillon Under 18.5 Carries (-110) at BetMGM
Tyler Boyd Over/Under 4.5 Receptions
Alright, enough of these under bets. Let’s have a little fun already. After picking two, I see why the public prefers overs. I don’t want to sweat all game hoping a player isn’t on the field! I want to be in the fight until the very end.
Overdramatic takes aside, Tyler Boyd is becoming very, very, very undervalued due to the emergence of Ja’Marr Chase. Typically a player with a high target share, Boyd has seen a considerable dip in his opportunity this season. That said, are sports betting sites overcorrecting a bit too much? At this price, I think so.
Boyd’s route tree suggests that most of his targets will be converted. While Chase and Burrow share a clear connection, Boyd should be able to find some space in Las Vegas. Assuming Boyd can return to the 6-7 target range, he should be able to convert five catches.
More importantly, at a +130 price tag, we really don’t need this over to hit that often to make this bet profitable. If this game played 100 times, Boyd would need to catch 5 passes in 44 of those games for this bet to justify this bet. That sounds pretty good to me. I will take an undervalued Boyd for my only over of the week.
PROP: 1u Boyd Over 4.5 Receptions (+130) at DraftKings
Good luck this week! Share your prop picks with Joe on Twitter @JoeCistaro.
2021 NFL Player Props Record: 12 – 12
Net Winning: -1.42 units
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