NFL Week 4 Survivor Pool Picks, Advice, and Strategy

NFL betting analyst Nick Galaida breaks down Week 4 Survivor Pool strategy, previewing the safest picks of the week as well as possible upsets.

NFL Week 4 Survivor Strategy and Picks

Traditionally, survivor pools require participants to simply pick the winner of one NFL game straight up each week. The challenging part of eliminator tournaments is that you can only use a team once during the season. In 2022, this means that you will need to select 18 of the 32 teams to finish the regular season, so there will be weeks during which you will not be able to have an elite roster at your disposal.

Each week in this article, we discuss red flags to try to avoid when selecting your eliminator team of the week. As a general rule, it is best to avoid six contexts when considering options for a survivor league:

1. Intra-division games
2. Primetime games
3. Away teams with poor defenses
4. Non-elite teams playing on a short week
5. Non-elite teams with a rest disadvantage
6. Teams who are playing an opponent off of their bye week

Trust this team in Week 4: Green Bay Packers

Prior to Week 3, we recommended the Los Angeles Chargers as our survivor team. Justin Herbert was subsequently labeled a game-time decision, and J.C. Jackson was surprisingly ruled out. Keenan Allen was once again on the sidelines, and he was joined by Joey Bosa and Rashawn Slater – each of whom suffered injuries mid-game against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

This weekend, we are recommending a team with no such injury concerns, who does not catch a single red flag for our survivor criteria – the Green Bay Packers. Though the Packers are not an elite football team, this is a game that favors their playing style extremely well. In Week 2, Green Bay was able to get an early lead and dominate the time of possession, which did two things – 1) allowed Green Bay’s defense to be refreshed each time it took the field; 2) forced Chicago into a pass-heavy game script, which allowed the strength of Green Bay’s defense to shine.
The Packers are most vulnerable against teams that are able to exploit Green Bay’s weak run defense, which ranks 20th in EPA/play through three contests. On Sunday against the New England Patriots, Green Bay should be able to get on the scoreboard early, facing a Patriots defense that allowed 37 points last weekend against the Baltimore Ravens. If Green Bay can take an early lead, they will force backup quarterback Brian Hoyer into a pass-heavy game script against a strong Packers’ secondary unit. It would be shocking to see an upset at Lambeau Field in this spot.

Week 4 Fade: Los Angeles Chargers

Week 1 Fade: Indianapolis Colts (Result: Tied 20-20 against the Houston Texans)
Week 2 Fade: Green Bay Packers (Result: Packers defeated Bears 27-10)
Week 3 Fade: Buffalo Bills (Result: Bills lost to Dolphins 21-19)

Last week, we recommended staying away from the Buffalo Bills, who were listed as touchdown favorites early in the week. They caught two of our red flags – 1) Intra-division game; 2) Away team with poor defense, in addition to having a rest disadvantage after playing on Monday Night Football in Week 2.

In Week 4, the Los Angeles Chargers could once again be on upset alert. During the offseason, the Chargers had eight players rank in ESPN’s top 100 player evaluation. As of this writing, Justin Herbert has a serious rib cartilage issue, Rashawn Slater has a torn biceps tendon, Keenan Allen is dealing with a hamstring injury, Joey Bosa is sidelined with a bad groin, and J.C. Jackson is struggling to get back to full health following ankle surgery.

On top of the injury bug, Los Angeles is also dealing with a coaching problem. Brandon Staley, arguably, cost his team a postseason berth last fall due to his overzealous play calling and insistence on going-for-it on 4th down at unconventional times. Poor play calling and an inability to make in-game adjustments have bled into the new campaign, which has been a major reason for the disappointing start for this group. In Week 1, the Chargers scored on their scripted possession out of the half, but only amassed 45 total yards of offense on their subsequent five drives. In Week 2, they once again scored on their scripted drive out of the half, but totaled only 83 yards of offense on their subsequent five drives. In Week 3, the Chargers scored on their scripted drive coming out of the half, but failed to put points on the board on any of their remaining drives. Despite having a serious cartilage injury that nearly forced him to miss the game entirely, Herbert threw the ball 45 times. The offense continued to struggle running the ball between the tackles, with Austin Ekeler delivering only five rushing yards on four carries.

In Week 4, Los Angeles is heavily favored against the Houston Texans, but this is far from an automatic win. Houston beat the Chargers in Week 16 last year by a final score of 41-29, and this year has a much-improved secondary unit that ranks near league average in Dropback EPA/play. If Houston can make life difficult through the air for Herbert and company, the Chargers are not a team that is capable of winning a football game with a great day on the ground. There is a lot of risk in this spot – much more risk than a touchdown spread suggests.

Image Credit: Imagn

About the Author

nickgalaida
Nick Galaida (nickgalaida)

A failed high school pitcher, Nick Galaida discovered that he has a higher aptitude for analyzing and writing about sports than he does playing them. To his friends, he is better known as “The Commish.” When he’s not organizing a fantasy league, placing a bet, or writing an article, he’s probably nose-deep in a book—further illustrating the point that his niche in this world is as a nerd rather than an athlete. Follow Nick on Twitter – @CommishFilmRoom