NFL Week 5 Betting Lines: Chiefs, Dolphins Among Best Bets
Following a chaotic Week 3, which included a number of surprising upsets, the NFL returned to a relative calm in Week 4, with favorites dominating the board. In Week 5, the league has another international affair on tap, and likely another week of Taylor Swift mania with Travis Kelce and the Kansas City Chiefs traveling to play the Minnesota Vikings. Below, we have updated lines for all of the upcoming Week 5 action and a few early leans that are candidates for best bets later in the week.
Each week this season, we will be taking an early look at betting lines, offering a few leans for the community to consider tailing before odds move!
NFL Week 5 Betting Lines
- Chicago Bears at Washington Commanders -7, O/U 44.5
- Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills -5.5, O/U 48
- Houston Texans at Atlanta Falcons -1.5, O/U 41.5
- Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions -8.5, O/U 43.5
- Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts -1.5, O/U 42.5
- New York Giants at Miami Dolphins -9.5, O/U 49.5
- Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers +4.5, O/U 39.5
- New Orleans Saints at New England Patriots -1.5, O/U 39.5
- Cincinnati Bengals at Arizona Cardinals +3, O/U 43.5
- Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Rams +4.5, O/U 49.5
- Kansas City Chiefs at Minnesota Vikings +5.5, O/U 52.5
- New York Jets at Denver Broncos -2.5, O/U 42.5
- Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers -3.5, O/U 45
- Green Bay Packers at Las Vegas Raiders +1.5, O/U 44.5
NFL Week 5 lines last updated 12:43 PM ET Monday, October 2nd.
NFL Teams on Bye: Browns, Buccaneers, Chargers, Seahawks
Houston Texans (+1.5) at Atlanta Falcons
Simply, CJ Stroud is the best quarterback from this past summer’s NFL Draft, and it is not particularly close. Now, the rest of his roster is beginning to get healthier, and fans are starting to see just how talented the Houston Texans roster is when they have all of their key pieces available. In contrast, the Atlanta Falcons have scored a total of 13 points across the last two weeks with Desmond Ridder at quarterback, and now this group has to travel across an ocean to play a Week 5 contest against an emerging defense. There is little reason that the Falcons should be favored in this game – their offense ranks 26th in EPA/play and their defense ranks 22nd in Dropback EPA/play. Grab the underdogs here while they are still underdogs.
Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers, Under 45
As good as Brock Purdy has been during the early portion of his NFL career, he has one major weakness – throwing when under pressure. Last season, Purdy completed 73.8% of his pass attempts and averaged 9.0 yards per attempt from a clean pocket, compared to a 47.7% completion percentage and 6.6 yards per attempt when under pressure, according to PFF. This year, Purdy has completed 84.0% of his pass attempts and averaged 10.8 yards per attempt from a clean pocket, compared to a 48.6% completion rate under pressure and only 5.6 yards per attempt. The Dallas Cowboys’ defense had the second-best pressure rate of any team in the league in Week 4 and Week 2, and led the NFL with a 55.7% pressure rate in Week 1. This is likely to be a low-scoring affair between two strong pass defenses that will force their opponent to beat them on the ground.
Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5) at Minnesota Vikings
Is this, dare I say, a buy-low spot on the Kansas City Chiefs? Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs were greater than a touchdown favorite on Sunday Night Football against the struggling New York Jets, but only barely squeaked out a 23-20 win – or at least that is what it looks like. In actuality, Kansas City has six more first downs than New York, out-gained them by 65 yards, despite going 0-for-4 in the red zone, committing two turnovers, and Mahomes sliding on the final play of the game rather than walking into the end zone for a 30-20 victory – which would have covered the spread. The Minnesota Vikings have one win this season, and it came against a Carolina Panthers team that has zero wins in 2023. The Vikings are not going to get much pressure on Mahomes, and their defense ranks 18th in success rate against the run this year. This could turn into a rout.
New York Giants at Miami Dolphins (-9.5)
In Week 1, the Miami Dolphins scored 36 points and were pressured on only 25.4% of their dropbacks against the Los Angeles Chargers. In Week 2, the New England Patriots had the lowest defensive pressure rate of any team (11.1%), and lost to the Dolphins 24-17 in a game that was never in doubt. In Week 3, the Denver Broncos allowed 70 points to Miami and had the worst single-game defensive pressure rate of the 2023 season to date. In Week 4, the Dolphins ran into a motivated divisional juggernaut in the Buffalo Bills, which managed to pressure Miami on 27.7% of their dropbacks while holding them to a season-low 20 points. In Week 5, Miami’s opponent, the New York Giants, will look much more like their first three opponents of the season, rather than the Bills. The Giants have finished in the bottom half of the NFL in defensive pressure rate in each of their first three games this year. Mike McDaniel and company are likely to have a field day against an inexperienced New York defense, and Vic Fangio’s defense will have a favorable matchup against a Giants’ offense that has scored more than 12 points only once so far this fall.