NFL Week 5 Survivor Pool Picks, Advice, and Strategy
NFL betting analyst Nick Galaida breaks down Week 5 Survivor Pool strategy, previewing the safest picks of the week as well as possible upsets.
NFL Week 5 Survivor Strategy and Picks
Traditionally, survivor pools require participants to simply pick the winner of one NFL game straight up each week. The challenging part of eliminator tournaments is that you can only use a team once during the season. In 2022, this means that you will need to select 18 of the 32 teams to finish the regular season, so there will be weeks during which you will not be able to have an elite roster at your disposal.
Each week in this article, we discuss red flags to try to avoid when selecting your eliminator team of the week. As a general rule, it is best to avoid six contexts when considering options for a survivor league:
1. Intra-division games
2. Primetime games
3. Away teams with poor defenses
4. Non-elite teams playing on a short week
5. Non-elite teams with a rest disadvantage
6. Teams who are playing an opponent off of their bye week
Trust this team in Week 5: Buffalo Bills
In Week 4, the Buffalo Bills went into one of the most hostile environments in the NFL to defeat a talented Baltimore Ravens team in a 23-20 slugfest – a game in which Buffalo trailed by as many as 17 points. Through the first month of the new campaign, Buffalo has demonstrated that they can win in a variety of game scripts, which is important when selecting a team in a survivor pool. In their first two games, they struggled to distance themselves in the first half, but made adjustments that enabled them to flourish in the latter portion of the contest. Thus far, the Bills have defeated two respectable teams – the Los Angeles Rams and Baltimore Ravens – on the road, in addition to a dominant home victory over the Tennessee Titans.
Buffalo ranks 3rd in EPA/play on offense and 2nd in EPA/play on defense so far in 2022. The Pittsburgh Steelers rank 27th in EPA/play on offense and 12th in EPA/play on the defensive side of the ball after matchups against the Cincinnati Bengals, New England Patriots, Cleveland Browns, and New York Jets. Unquestionably, Buffalo will be Pittsburgh’s toughest test yet this fall, and it is unlikely to be a test that they pass.
Facing a rookie quarterback at home in Week 5, this is a spot that is as safe as it gets for survivor pools. There will not be an easier matchup for Buffalo the rest of the year, leaving little reason to save this group for later in the season.
Week 5 Fade: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Week 1 Fade: Indianapolis Colts (Result: Tied 20-20 against the Houston Texans)
Week 2 Fade: Green Bay Packers (Result: Packers defeated Bears 27-10)
Week 3 Fade: Buffalo Bills (Result: Bills lost to Dolphins 21-19)
Week 4 Fade: Los Angeles Chargers (Result: Chargers defeated Texans 34-24)
Following consecutive wins to begin the year, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers now sit at the .500 mark entering a pivotal Week 5 intra-division affair against the Atlanta Falcons. Favored by 8.5 points, the market is certainly expecting this to be a “get right” spot for Tom Brady and company, but it is worth wondering why such a belief is so strong among the betting community.
After four weeks of play, Tampa Bay ranks 24th in EPA/play on offense, 25th in 3rd down conversion percentage, T-20th in first downs per game, 30th in rushing yards per play, and 28th in time of possession. Often overlooked, time of possession is one of the most important team statistics in football, especially for a team that is overly reliant on their defense to win games. An inability to effectively move the chains forces a team’s defense to be on the field for longer, leading them to exert more energy, which makes them vulnerable late in contests as fatigue begins to set-in. This is especially true for a defense such as Tampa Bay’s, which lacks depth behind its starters. The bottom five teams in time of possession through four weeks are the Buccaneers, Chicago Bears, Houston Texans, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Carolina Panthers. Four of those teams are readily categorized as bottom-feeders by most NFL fans – is Tampa Bay an outlier, or are they simply not as good as many pundits believe right now?
Facing another week potentially missing Donovan Smith and Akiem Hicks, the Buccaneers could be in trouble against an underrated Atlanta offense, led by an emerging coaching savant, Arthur Smith. Tread carefully if trusting Tampa Bay this weekend.
Image Credit: Imagn