Top Underdog Fantasy Picks for NFL Week 5: Value on Kamara & Robinson
NFL Week 5 is shaping up to be an interesting one. We’ve already started to see some of the Super Bowl contenders establish themselves as such, while the opposite appears to be true of teams like the Broncos, Bears, Giants, and Raiders. A few would-be bottomfeeders have exceeded expectations, however, with the Texans and Cardinals fitting the bill thus far.
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As usual, we’ve got no shortage of pick’em options at our disposal heading into Week 5. Below are a few of the squares I’ll be hitting ahead of Sunday’s slate.
NFL Week 5 Underdog Fantasy Picks
- Kamara Higher Than 23.5 Receiving Yards
- Gano Higher Than 5.5 Kicking Points
- Dell Higher Than 41.5 Receiving Yards
- Robinson Higher Than 78.5 Rushing Yards
- Parker Lower Than 37.5 Receiving Yards
Alvin Kamara Higher Than 24.5 Receiving Yards
Alvin Kamara returned from his suspension last week in the Saints’ home loss to Tampa Bay. While the NOLA offense was largely dismal, Kamara’s involvement in the passing game really stood out. The former Pro Bowler hauled in a whopping 13 passes on 14 targets from Derek Carr.
We can’t expect that many targets or receptions on a weekly basis, of course. It’s also worth noting that he totaled just 33 yards on those 13 pass plays, which comes out to a tidy average of just 2.5 YPC. That’s quite ugly, but it’s just one game.
Underdog has Kamara’s square at 24.5 receiving yards this week when the Saints head up to New England to face the Patriots. Roth says wind could be a factor in this game, which has more of an effect on downfield pass plays than dump-offs, of course. If Carr is going to play the role of Captain Checkdown again on Sunday, Kamara could feast.
New England has long had a reputation as a stingy defense under Bill Belichick, and they’re a respectable 8th in tDVOA through four games this year. This play is all about volume, though. Kamara doesn’t have to catch another 13 passes to easily surpass 24.5 receiving yards,
Graham Gano Higher Than 5.5 Kicking Points
Yep, you can put money on kicking points at Underdog, if you’re so inclined. No judgment here, either. Wins are wins, and there’s money to be made.
Giants-Dolphins has the third-highest over/under of the week at 49.5 points. It’s fair to expect most of those points to be scored by those high-flying Dolphins, but we did see this Miami defense get absolutely gashed for 48 points by the Bills just a few days ago. I am certainly not suggesting the 2023 Giants are capable of such a feat, but that ‘Fins defense has been abysmal so far.
Miami is 29th in total DVOA. They’re 29th against the run and 26th through the air. Saquon Barkley is hoping to return to the field in this one, which will boost what has been an otherwise pathetic offense. If New York can actually move the ball here, it stands to reason that Graham Gano should be more heavily involved than he was in last week’s disaster loss to Seattle.
Gano needs to kick just 2 field goals to accrue more than 5.5 kicking points in this one. It’s not a comfortable play given how poorly this team has played all year, but I still have some faith.
Tank Dell Higher Than 41.5 Receiving Yards
How ‘bout those Texans!? Houston walloped the Steelers, 30-6, at home last week, and on Sunday, they’ll head to ATL to take on the Falcons. This game will take place in a dome, and we’ve seen the Falcons’ defense struggle once again through 4 games this year. Houston is only a 2.5-point road underdog, and it obviously wouldn’t be a massive surprise to see them come away with a third straight victory.
Tank Dell was quiet in that blowout win over Pittsburgh, catching just 1 of 3 targets for a mere 16 yards. Instead, we saw the Nico Collins Show, as he racked up the second-most receiving yards of any player (168) in Week 4.
Dell’s target share of around 17% is just the third-highest on the team behind Collins and Robert Woods, but we’ve seen the rookie break off several big plays already. Dell’s 16.7 yards per reception ranks 13th in the league, ahead of luminaries like Justin Jefferson, DK Metcalf, and Deebo Samuel.
You can pass on the Falcons. Atlanta is 27th in DVOA against the pass this season, while they’ve fared much better against the run (10th). Given the Texans’ own issues with establishing Dameon Pierce and the ground game, we can safely expect a heavy dosage of C.J. Stroud on Sunday. That’s good news for Dell, Collins, and the rest of the receiving corps.
Bijan Robinson Higher Than 78.5 Rushing Yards
Not a lot has gone well for the Falcons’ offense in back-to-back defeats, but at least they have Bijan Robinson. The Texas product has been everything Atlanta could’ve possibly hoped for when they surprisingly nabbed him 7th overall in April’s draft. He leads all rookies in rushing yards (318), while he has the most receiving yards (134) of any first-year running back, too.
The matchup against the Texans this week looks favorable, as Houston comes into this one just 28th in the league in DVOA vs. the run. We know the Falcons would rather run the ball to begin with. After a random Tyler Allgeier outburst in Week 1, we’ve seen Bijan play at least 70% of the snaps in each of the last three games. Meanwhile, the Texans have yielded at least 88 rushing yards to opposing RBs in three straight, as well.
Robinson only has 24 total carries over the last two games, though, as the Falcons fell into early deficits in losses to Detroit and Jacksonville. He still managed to top 100 yards on just 14 attempts last week like a gawd, but expecting 7.5 yards per carry again is admittedly silly.
As mentioned, the Falcons are slight favorites at home on Sunday. If we expect a pass-heavy approach from a Texans team potentially playing from behind, it’s logical to assume the Falcons will try to control the clock via Bijan and the ground game. Pairing Robinson to total more than 78.5 rushing yards makes for a natural pairing with Tank Dell to top 41.5 through the air.
DeVante Parker Lower Than 37.5 Receiving Yards
We’ve seen plenty of grim offensive performances already this season, but you’d be hard-pressed to find a team that looked worse than the Patriots on that side of the football last Sunday. The matchup at Dallas was brutal, but Mac Jones and the offense still mustered just 3 points en route to an embarrassing blowout loss.
Jones got himself benched in favor of Bailey Zappe, but it sounds like Jones will draw another start when the Pats host the Saints this week. Whether this will be his last chance remains to be seen, but this game predictably has one of the lowest over/unders of Week 5 (40.5).
New England’s passing attack has been close to non-existent. They may again struggle to gain traction in that regard this week against a Saints defense that comes into this one 9th in the NFL in DVOA against the pass.
I suppose you can call DeVante Parker one of this team’s big-play threats, but consistently getting him the football has been a challenge. Parker’s averaging about 36 receiving yards per game through three games on the year, though that average is boosted by his 57-yard showing in Week 2.
Until this offense shows that it’s actually capable of doing anything, going against it seems to be the way to go.