NFL Week 6 Survivor Pool Picks, Advice, and Strategy
NFL betting analyst Nick Galaida breaks down Week 6 Survivor Pool strategy, previewing the safest picks of the week as well as possible upsets.
NFL Week 6 Survivor Strategy and Picks
Traditionally, survivor pools require participants to simply pick the winner of one NFL game straight up each week. The challenging part of eliminator tournaments is that you can only use a team once during the season. In 2022, this means that you will need to select 18 of the 32 teams to finish the regular season, so there will be weeks during which you will not be able to have an elite roster at your disposal.
Each week in this article, we discuss red flags to try to avoid when selecting your eliminator team of the week. As a general rule, it is best to avoid six contexts when considering options for a survivor league:
1. Intra-division games
2. Primetime games
3. Away teams with poor defenses
4. Non-elite teams playing on a short week
5. Non-elite teams with a rest disadvantage
6. Teams who are playing an opponent off of their bye week
Trust this team in Week 6: Los Angeles Rams
After a disappointing 1-4 start to the season, the Carolina Panthers decided to fire Head Coach Matt Rhule, defensive coordinator Phil Snow, and assistant special teams coordinator Ed Foley. On top of three coaches being fired heading into their Week 6 matchup against the Los Angeles Rams, Carolina also has major injury concerns at key positions, with Baker Mayfield and Christian McCaffrey having yet to see the practice field this week. The Los Angeles Rams have been underwhelming in many respects to begin 2022, but they are still led by Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay – two men who were an integral part of this franchise winning a Super Bowl this past February. Los Angeles also has the benefit of roster continuity and home field advantage in this spot. Though it may seem like the sky is falling in Los Angeles, the defense still ranks 12th in EPA/play, and their main weakness – their secondary unit– is unlikely to be a tremendous problem against a backup signal caller. Expect the Rams to come away with a win on Sunday.
Week 6 Fade: Green Bay Packers
Week 1 Fade: Indianapolis Colts (Result: Tied 20-20 against the Houston Texans)
Week 2 Fade: Green Bay Packers (Result: Packers defeated Bears 27-10)
Week 3 Fade: Buffalo Bills (Result: Bills lost to Dolphins 21-19)
Week 4 Fade: Los Angeles Chargers (Result: Chargers defeated Texans 34-24)
Week 5 Fade: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Result: Buccaneers defeated Falcons 21-15)
There are five teams favored by at least a touchdown in Week 6, all of which appear to be relatively safe bets to win outright. Still, there is one heavy favorite that carries more risk than the others this weekend – the Green Bay Packers. On last week’s edition of the Run 4 Cover podcast, I reiterated that the Packers need a game script to meet three conditions in order to win – 1) Score early; 2) Dominate the time of possession; 3) Force the opposing team into a pass-heavy game script. Against the New York Giants, Green Bay scored early, but failed to dominate the time of possession, which allowed New York to continue running the ball in the second half of the contest. The end result was a 27-22 defeat for the Packers.
Prior to Week 6, there have been seven instances of an NFL team playing in London, and then having to play the following week without the benefit of a bye on their schedule. In an admittedly small sample size, opponent team totals are 6-1 to the over in these spots. Entering play on Sunday, Green Bay ranks 16th in EPA/play on defense and is only 21st in EPA/play offensively across the last two weeks. The Jets are far from an elite football team, and they are not likely to win at Lambeau Field on Sunday – but they are capable of making this game a sweat. There are less risky options on the board for this weekend in survivor pools.
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