NFL Week 6 Survivor Pool Picks, Advice, and Strategy (2023)
NFL betting analyst Nick Galaida breaks down Week 6 Survivor Pool strategy, previewing the safest picks of the week and possible upsets.
NFL Week 6 Survivor Strategy and Picks
In traditional survivor pools, participants are required to select a winner of one NFL game straight-up each week. In eliminator tournaments, the rules are more challenging – allowing participants to use a team only one time throughout the course of the regular season. In 2023, this means that participants will need to select 18 of the 32 teams to finish the regular season. Consequently, there will be weeks when you will not be able to select an elite roster with a favorable matchup.
Each week in this RotoGrinders article, we will identify one trustworthy favorite and pick one favorite that is on upset alert. During the first nine weeks of last season, four of our teams that were on upset alert lost outright, despite all of those teams being favored by at least one score at the time of writing.
Below, we have our list of red flags to try to avoid when selecting your eliminator team of the week. As a general rule, it is best to avoid six contexts when choosing your team:
1. Intra-division games
2. Primetime games
3. Away teams with poor defenses
4. Non-elite teams playing on a short week
5. Non-elite teams with a rest disadvantage
6. Teams who are playing an opponent off of their bye week
Trust this team in Week 6: Kansas City Chiefs
Week 1 Trust this team: Baltimore Ravens (Result: Won 25-9 against the Houston Texans)
Week 2 Trust this team: Dallas Cowboys (Result: Won 30-10 against the New York Jets)
Week 3 Trust this team: San Francisco 49ers (Result: Won 30-12 against the New York Giants)
Week 4 Trust this team: Los Angeles Chargers (Result: Won 24-17 against the Las Vegas Raiders)
Week 5 Trust this team: Miami Dolphins (Result: Won 31-16 against the New York Giants)
If you still have not used the Miami Dolphins this fall, or if your tournament allows you to pick the same team more than once in a season – they should be your top option this week against a Carolina Panthers team that is seemingly going nowhere with minimal upside. However, if you have been tailing our recommendations in this article, turn your attention to Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs.
In their season opener, the Chiefs suffered a rare home defeat, losing 21-20 to the Detroit Lions. Yet, the primary reason for that loss was a lack of star power, with Travis Kelce hurt and Chris Jones holding out for a new contract. Since Kelce and Jones have returned to the field, the Chiefs are a perfect 4-0, including three wins on the road. Their lone game in front of their home fans resulted in a 41-10 shellacking of the Chicago Bears.
In Week 6, Kansas City catches two of our red flags – 1) it’s a primetime game; 2) it’s an intra-division affair. Nevertheless, we are willing to take the risk here, judging by the immense difference in talent between the Chiefs and the Denver Broncos in this matchup.
Since Week 2, the Chiefs rank 4th in offensive EPA/play and 5th in defensive EPA/play. The Broncos rank 20th in offensive EPA/play and 32nd in defensive EPA/play during that same stretch. Assuming we do not see any last minute surprises on the injury report, Mahomes and company should be able to get the job done on Thursday.
Week 6 Survivor Fade: Buffalo Bills
Week 1 Fade: Kansas City Chiefs (Result: Lost 21-20 against the Detroit Lions)
Week 2 Fade: Buffalo Bills (Result: Won 38-10 against the Detroit Lions)
Week 3 Fade: Philadelphia Eagles (Result: Won 25-11 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
Week 4 Fade: Dallas Cowboys (Result: Won 38-3 against the New England Patriots)
Week 5 Fade: Washington Commanders (Result: Lost 40-20 against the Chicago Bears)
To qualify as a “Survivor Fade,” a team must be at least a 6-point favorite at the time of writing. Through five weeks, two of our five ‘teams to fade’ have lost outright. In Week 6, we encourage everyone to be cautious if investing too much in the Buffalo Bills.
From 2018 to 2022, home favorites of at least 14 points won 37 of 41 games played. Obviously, the macro approach here strongly suggests the Bills have a great chance to win. However, looking at macro-level data does not offer the same benefits as a more granular analysis of the individual context of a particular matchup.
In Week 5, the Bills had to travel to London to play the Jacksonville Jaguars – a game that Buffalo ultimately lost 25-20. During that game, Buffalo lost linebacker Matt Milano and defensive tackle DaQuan Jones to injuries, which will keep them from playing in Week 6. Milano had been one of the best linebackers in the NFL so far this season, ranking 8th out of 78 players at his position in coverage. Jones has been elite against the run and has been a dynamic pass-rusher as well. Per PFF, he ranks 5th as a run defender out of 128 qualified players at his position this season and 4th as a pass-rusher. Only Ed Oliver has been responsible for more quarterback pressures this season for the Bills than Jones.
Combining a rough travel schedule with the loss of two leaders on the defensive side of the ball, Buffalo is likely overvalued in this matchup against the New York Giants, making them a relatively risky survivor option this week.