NFL Week 6 Survivor Pool Picks, Advice, and Strategy (2024)
NFL betting analyst Nick Galaida breaks down Week 6 NFL survivor pool strategy, previewing his favorite survivor picks of the week as well as teams to watch out for.
Week 6 NFL Survivor Revival
Are you looking for another chance in survivor pools after last week? Don’t worry; we’ve got you covered. RotoGrinders partnered with Splash Sports for a $10K Guaranteed Survivor Revival contest, kicking off this Sunday. Click here
NFL Week 6 Survivor Strategy and Picks
If you have already been eliminated from your NFL Survivor pool this year, you are not alone. This has been among the worst seasons in the history of football for “big favorites” of 6+ points. According to Evan Abrams of The Action Network, NFL underdogs of 6+ points are 11-8 SU and 16-2-1 ATS through 5 weeks. This is the first time since 1960 that dogs of 6+ points are over .500 SU this late into the season.
Each week in this article, we pick one “big favorite” that we like to win and one “big favorite” that we think could be on upset alert. Our teams to trust are 11-4 SU and 9-6 ATS since the beginning of 2023. Our teams on upset alert are 4-10 ATS in that same time period, with 5 of those teams losing outright as greater than a touchdown favorite
This weekly article will be primarily focusing on NFL Survivor Revival contests going forward. If looking for any advice on games not mentioned in this article, don’t hesitate to reach out to CommishFilmRoom on Twitter or @nickgalaida in the RotoGrinders Discord! Our goal is to continue providing high-quality research and survivor options for the remainder of this NFL season.
Below, we have our list of red flags, in no particular order of importance, to try to avoid when selecting your eliminator team of the week. As a general rule, it is best to avoid six contexts when choosing your team:
1. Intra-division games
2. Primetime games
3. Away teams with poor defenses
4. Non-elite teams playing on a short week
5. Non-elite teams with a rest disadvantage
6. Teams who are playing an opponent off of their bye week
My Week 6 NFL Survivor Pick: Philadelphia Eagles
The Cleveland Browns are bad, like, really bad. Through 5 weeks, Cleveland’s offense ranks 32nd in DVOA, 32nd in EPA/play, and 32nd in success rate. Deshaun Watson is single-handedly responsible for 2 of the 5 worst games by a quarterback so far this season, measured by EPA/play. He is the only starting quarterback to not have a single game this season with north of a 43% success rate. Defensively, the Browns haven’t been great either – ranking 16th in DVOA, 15th in EPA/play, and 7th in success rate. Their defense has been decimated by injuries, with LB Jordan Hicks, EDGE Alex Wright, DT Maurice Hurst, DT Michael Hall Jr., and S Juan Thornhill each missing their Week 5 contest against the Commanders.
On the other side of this matchup, the Eagles appear to be an undeserving 9-point favorite on the surface, considering their 2-2 record and sizable loss to the Buccaneers in Week 4. However, it’s worth noting that their WR1, AJ Brown, has played only 1 game so far. Both Brown and WR DeVonta Smith missed the team’s Week 4 loss to Tampa Bay. The Eagles also played that game without star RT Lane Johnson, who ranks in the top 5 out of 68 guards in pass protection and run blocking grade in 2024, per PFF.
Yesterday, Brown, Smith, and Johnson all logged a full practice, which bodes extremely well for their chances of returning to the field on Sunday against the Browns. This is an excellent “get right spot” for the Eagles, playing at home against a Browns offense that still hasn’t scored 20 points yet this season.
Week 6 Survivor Fade: Houston Texans
Wide receiver injuries are typically not enough of a reason to warrant concern for a good team, but the Houston Texans are not definitively a “good team,” and WR Nico Collins isn’t the only notable injury for this group either. Houston held on to defeat Buffalo 23-20 in Week 5, but the game script turned on its head after Collins exited the contest. The Texans led 20-3 shortly after the half but didn’t score again until the Bills mismanaged the game clock in the closing minute and gifted their opponent a chance to hit a game-winning field goal.
Houston’s final 6 drives went: Punt, Punt, Interception, Fumble, Punt, Field Goal. The only drive they had resulting in points from that data set was a 2-play, 5-yard drive in the final 7 seconds of the game. In total, 4 of their final 6 drives lasted 4 plays or fewer and gained 21 yards or fewer.
The New England Patriots have struggled tremendously since beating the Bengals in Week 1, but they get a home game against an injury-riddled opponent in Week 6. The Patriots will also have Drake Maye under center for the first time in 2024. There is little doubt that the No. 3 overall pick from this past summer’s draft at least offers this team a little bit more upside, even if he is still playing behind the same porous offensive line, with the same limited skill position players around him.
The Texans likely find a way to win this game, but there is more variance here than survivor contestants should be seeking if entering a new revival pool. Houston will likely be without their RB1 and WR1 on Sunday. They also had a few defensive starters not practicing on Wednesday, which will be something to monitor into the weekend. If Houston can’t run the ball and their passing game struggles, New England’s offense could have a fighting chance to pull an upset.
Image Credit: Getty Images