NFL Week 8 Survivor Pool Picks, Advice, and Strategy
The 2021 NFL season is in full-swing once again, which means that eliminator, survivor, and pick’em pools are on many people’s minds. This fall, we will be offering some advice and best practices for how to approach each of these formats.
There are quite a few heavy favorites on the board for Week 8. We’ve already looked at Week 8 lines, now let’s break down our best NFL survivor picks.
NFL Week 8 Survivor Picks, Strategy
Traditionally, survivor pools require participants to simply pick the winner of one NFL game straight up each week. The challenging part of eliminator tournaments is that you can only use a team once during the season. In 2021, this means that you will need to select 18 of the 32 teams to finish the regular season, so there will be weeks during which you will not be able to have an elite roster at your disposal.
In Week 1, we said that it made sense to burn an elite team, the Los Angeles Rams, to start off the year with a victory. We successfully burned another elite team in Week 2—the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. In Week 3, we used a less notable team—the Denver Broncos in an extremely favorable matchup at home against a rookie quarterback. In Week 4, we took advantage of another team with a favorable matchup, the Buffalo Bills at home against an inexperienced signal caller. In Week 5, we took our first semi-risky play of the year, the Dallas Cowboys against their division rival. In Week 6, we successfully bet on some positive regression from Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. In Week 7, we finally burned the undefeated Arizona Cardinals in a favorable home matchup against the hapless Houston Texans. In Week 8, we are taking an opportunity to pick against a young quarterback making his first career start.
Week 1: Los Angeles Rams
Week 2: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Week 3: Denver Broncos
Week 4: Buffalo Bills
Week 5: Dallas Cowboys
Week 6: Kansas City Chiefs
Week 7: Arizona Cardinals
Week 8 Survivor Pick: Cincinnati Bengals
Each week in this article, we discuss red flags to try to avoid when selecting your eliminator team of the week. As a general rule, it is best to avoid six contexts when considering options for a survivor league:
1. Intra-division games
2. Prime Time games
3. Away teams with poor defenses
4. Non-elite teams playing on a short week
5. Non-elite teams with a rest disadvantage
6. Teams who are playing an opponent off of their bye week
In Week 8, the only big favorites that we have remaining to use are the Cincinnati Bengals (-10.5) and the Los Angeles Chargers (-4.5). Let’s take a closer look at each contest and a couple of other options for participants to consider if they still have the Rams or Chiefs available to use.
Bengals (vs. Jets)
The Bengals only red flag this week is that they are playing away from home without an elite defense. Cincinnati is a strong play this week, primarily because of their ability to make life difficult on opposing quarterbacks. They have allowed opposing signal callers to throw only seven touchdowns against five interceptions in 2021—good for a 84.8 passer rating. After the injury to Zach Wilson, the New York Jets will be going with Mike White, a former fifth round draft selection, under center. In relief against the New England Patriots, White threw two interceptions. He is likely to struggle again in Week 8. Cincinnati is the safest option of our remaining teams available this week.
Chargers (vs. Patriots)
The Los Angeles Chargers do not have any major red flags this week. The decision to go with Cincinnati this week as our selection has more to do with scheduling. The Jets are by far the weakest remaining opponent on the Bengals’ schedule, making this the best week to pull the trigger on Cincinnati. The Chargers have games remaining against the Philadelphia Eagles, New York Giants, and Houston Texans, meaning that we would like to save them as a potential late-season option.
Safest Pick in Week 8
If playing in a survivor pool with no constraints on picking the same team multiple times throughout the course of the season, participants have far more options to consider on a weekly basis. In Week 8, the safest option by far, for those who are still able to use them, is the Los Angeles Rams (-15.5).
Rams (vs. Lions)
The Rams played poorly in Week 7, but still managed to defeat the New York Giants on the road in an east coast time zone by 27 points. The Rams once again played poorly last week against the Detroit Lions in “(player-popup #jared-goff)Jared Goff”:/players/jared-goff-35673’s revenge game, but still managed to escape with a win. A matchup with the Houston Texans could be an opportunity to take out some recent frustration in a dominating way. Matthew Stafford continues to be a perfect fit in Sean McVay’s up-tempo offense. His excellent rapport with Cooper Kupp is approaching historic levels. Other than a Week 4 loss to the undefeated Cardinals, the Rams have rarely been in danger of losing a game. Five of their six wins have come by nine or more points. Los Angeles should have little trouble handling a Detroit Lions team still seeking their first win.
Survivor Pool Upset Watch
Each week, we will examine one team that is a heavy favorite and discuss why they could be a slightly more risky option than the other teams that people are considering in their survivor and eliminator pools. In Week 4, we identified the eight-point favorite Baltimore Ravens as being on upset alert. It took a 4th and 19 conversion on the final drive and an NFL record 66-yard field goal as time expired for them to avoid a loss to the underdog Detroit Lions. In Week 5, we said to beware of the Cincinnati Bengals, who trailed 14-0 at halftime and only barely squeaked out a 24-21 victory on Thursday Night Football. In Week 6, we once again said to prepare for a stressful day if selecting the Ravens, who trailed by 16 points in the fourth quarter against the Colts. In Week 7, we warned bettors not to fall for the bait on the Buffalo Bills, who were touchdown favorites but ended up losing outright to the Tennessee Titans. Stay away from these stressful situations when you can help it.
Let’s take a look at this week’s big favorite that could be in for a tougher contest than oddsmakers are suggesting.
Chiefs (vs. Giants)
At some point, the market is going to have to stop treating Patrick Mahomes as if he is God. In 2021, he has been extremely reckless with the football, totaling nine interceptions, which ranks 32nd in the NFL amongst quarterbacks. He has turned the ball over in six consecutive games, including three games during that stretch with multiple interceptions. The Kansas City Chiefs have been atrocious defensively, allowing opposing quarterbacks to throw for 13 touchdowns against only five interceptions—good for a 104.0 passer rating. The Chiefs have also allowed the fifth-most yards-per-carry of any defense in the NFL this season. The New York Giants are far from an elite football team. The Chiefs deserve to be favored in this game, but it is always a tremendous risk to bet on a bad defense and a turnover-prone quarterback. There are better options available this week.
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