NFL Week 9 Survivor Pool Picks, Advice, and Strategy
NFL betting analyst Nick Galaida breaks down Week 9 Survivor Pool strategy, previewing the safest picks of the week as well as possible upsets.
NFL Week 9 Survivor Strategy and Picks
Traditionally, survivor pools require participants to simply pick the winner of one NFL game straight up each week. The challenging part of eliminator tournaments is that you can only use a team once during the season. In 2022, this means that you will need to select 18 of the 32 teams to finish the regular season, so there will be weeks during which you will not be able to have an elite roster at your disposal.
Each week in this article, we discuss red flags to try to avoid when selecting your eliminator team of the week. As a general rule, it is best to avoid six contexts when considering options for a survivor league:
1. Intra-division games
2. Primetime games
3. Away teams with poor defenses
4. Non-elite teams playing on a short week
5. Non-elite teams with a rest disadvantage
6. Teams who are playing an opponent off of their bye week
Trust this team in Week 9: Philadelphia Eagles
Entering the month of November, the Philadelphia Eagles remain the only team in the National Football League without a loss. Philadelphia enters play in Week 9 with three road victories, four home victories, two wins against division opponents, five wins within the conference, and the best point differential in the NFC. Though the Eagles’ early season schedule has featured a number of weak opponents, they do have notable wins against the Minnesota Vikings, Dallas Cowboys, as well as competitive teams such as Jacksonville Jaguars and Arizona Cardinals. After seven contests, the Eagles rank 3rd in offensive EPA/play and 3rd in defensive EPA/play. In Week 8, the Eagles easily defeated a Pittsburgh Steelers team that had scored only 33 points across their last three games, and has the worst point differential in the AFC. In Week 9, Philadelphia has another extremely favorable matchup against a Houston Texans team, which has the second-worst point differential in the AFC. The Texans rank 30th in EPA/play offensively and 25th in EPA/play defensively. There is very little risk for anyone trusting the Eagles in this spot on Thursday Night Football.
Week 9 Fade: Cincinnati Bengals
Week 1 Fade: Indianapolis Colts (Result: Tied 20-20 against the Houston Texans)
Week 2 Fade: Green Bay Packers (Result: Packers defeated Bears 27-10)
Week 3 Fade: Buffalo Bills (Result: Bills lost to Dolphins 21-19)
Week 4 Fade: Los Angeles Chargers (Result: Chargers defeated Texans 34-24)
Week 5 Fade: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Result: Buccaneers defeated Falcons 21-15)
Week 6 Fade: Green Bay Packers (Result: Packers lost to Jets 27-10)
Week 7 Fade: Los Angeles Chargers (Result: Chargers lost to Seahawks 37-23)
Week 8 Fade: Dallas Cowboys (Result: Cowboys defeated Bears 49-29)
In the first eight weeks of the season, four of the teams that we have recommended fading in this article have failed to win – and each team was favored by at least a touchdown at the time of publishing. In Week 9, we recommend that bettors tread carefully with the Cincinnati Bengals.
Cincinnati opened the new campaign with back-to-back losses against the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cooper Rush-led Dallas Cowboys. In those two contests, the Bengals struggled mightily to move the football, ranking 23rd in overall offensive EPA/play and 32nd in first down offensive EPA/play in that span. From Week 3 to Week 7, Cincinnati’s offense improved across the board – ranking 2nd in overall offensive EPA/play and 3rd in first down EPA/play. The improved offensive efficiency led to four wins in five chances, with the lone loss coming on a last-second game-winning field goal from Justin Tucker in a matchup with the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday Night Football.
Yet, the Bengals’ offense experienced a major hiccup in Week 8, playing their first game without wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase on the field. Of all teams that played in Week 8, Cincinnati ranked 26th in overall offensive EPA/play and 24th in first down EPA/play. The absence of D.J. Reader on the defensive line had led to major problems stopping the run, which were on full display against the Cleveland Browns on Monday Night Football. Reader has already been ruled out for Week 9, leaving this defense without one of their most important players once again.
The Carolina Panthers are far from an elite team, but they are not as poor as the current public perception of this team suggests. Since P.J. Walker has taken over as the team’s starting signal caller, Carolina ranks 20th in offensive EPA/play, with their biggest strength being a ground attack that ranks 8th in the NFL in that span in Rush EPA/play. If the Panthers can find success in the run game on Sunday, they could turn this into a closer contest than many bettors are anticipating, especially considering that the Bengals are playing on short rest in this matchup.
Image Credit: Imagn