NFL Week 9 Survivor Pool Picks, Advice, and Strategy (2023)
NFL betting analyst Nick Galaida breaks down Week 9 Survivor Pool strategy, previewing the safest picks of the week as well as possible upsets.
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NFL Week 9 Survivor Strategy and Picks
This is not a betting article, but it is worth noting that each of our first eight survivor recommendations have covered the spread this season. Through the first half of the regular season, we have done a phenomenal job avoiding tightly-contested games, which is where the most variance and the toughest heartbreaks tend to occur. In Week 9, we hope to have another easy winner.
In traditional survivor pools, participants are required to select a winner of one NFL game straight-up each week. In eliminator tournaments, the rules are more challenging – allowing participants to use a team only one time throughout the course of the regular season. In 2023, this means that participants will need to select 18 of the 32 teams to finish the regular season. Consequently, there will be weeks when you will not be able to select an elite roster with a favorable matchup.
Each week in this RotoGrinders article, we will identify one trustworthy favorite and pick one favorite that is on upset alert. During the first nine weeks of last season, four of our teams that were on upset alert lost outright despite all of those teams being favored by at least one score at the time of writing.
Below, we have our list of red flags to try to avoid when selecting your eliminator team of the week. As a general rule, it is best to avoid six contexts when choosing your team:
1. Intra-division games
2. Primetime games
3. Away teams with poor defenses
4. Non-elite teams playing on a short week
5. Non-elite teams with a rest disadvantage
6. Teams who are playing an opponent off of their bye week
Trust this team in Week 9: Cleveland Browns
Week 1 Trust this team: Baltimore Ravens (Result: Won 25-9 against the Houston Texans)
Week 2 Trust this team: Dallas Cowboys (Result: Won 30-10 against the New York Jets)
Week 3 Trust this team: San Francisco 49ers (Result: Won 30-12 against the New York Giants)
Week 4 Trust this team: Los Angeles Chargers (Result: Won 24-17 against the Las Vegas Raiders)
Week 5 Trust this team: Miami Dolphins (Result: Won 31-16 against the New York Giants)
Week 6 Trust this team: Kansas City Chiefs (Result: Won 19-8 against the Denver Broncos)
Week 7 Trust this team: Seattle Seahawks (Result: Won 20-10 against the Arizona Cardinals)
Week 8 Trust this team: Detroit Lions (Result: Won 26-14 against the Las Vegas Raiders)
We are officially to the point in the season where there are fewer and fewer elite teams available for us to pick each week in survivor tournaments. As a result, our three primary options for Week 9 are the Atlanta Falcons, Cleveland Browns, and New Orleans Saints – three teams with a combined 12-11 record this fall. The Falcons do not know who their quarterback will be this weekend, which immediately eliminates them from this list of options, leaving us with the Browns and Saints.
Cleveland gets our vote this week, primarily due to the fact that they are unlikely to be usable again until at least Week 15, whereas New Orleans is a potentially usable survivor team in Week 10, Week 14, and Week 15.
PJ Walker has been a complete disaster at the quarterback position, ranking dead-last out of 36 qualified signal callers in passer rating from a clean pocket and 32nd in passer rating when under pressure this year, per PFF. The Browns are 2-1 in his three games played and one game away from being a perfect 3-0 in that span. However, they are also a San Francisco missed field goal and a questionable pass interference call on Indianapolis away from being 0-3 in those games. Simply, there is little chance of a clear and convincing Cleveland victory as long as Walker is under center this weekend, which appears likely after the Browns failed to make any moves prior to Tuesday’s trade deadline.
The most appealing aspect of the Browns is their defense, which is the only reason that they are above the .500 mark at this point in the season. Through seven games, Cleveland’s defense ranks 1st in EPA/play and 1st in success rate. They have allowed the 6th-fewest passing yards per play of any team in the NFL, have the league’s 3rd-best sack rate, and have allowed fewer opponent first downs per game than any other team.
This weekend, it is unclear who the Browns will be facing, but it seems likely to be someone not named Kyler Murray. According to Darren Urban, “No one is committing to Kyler being active on Sunday.” If it’s not Murray, it is unclear who it will be. As of this writing, Clayton Tune is the only quarterback on Arizona’s 53-man roster, but head coach Jonathan Gannon commented earlier this week that the team will be “bringing in another quarterback” seemingly this week. Tune was a fifth-round draft pick this past summer out of Houston.
This is unquestionably our least safe survivor pick to date, but it makes sense given the context of the week and the need to have other teams available in the coming weeks if we are lucky enough to advance to Week 10 and beyond. Arizona’s defense ranks 31st in EPA/play and 32nd in success rate so far this fall, which theoretically should give Walker and the Cleveland offense a higher floor than they have had in recent weeks. If the Browns defense can continue to get elite levels of pressure on the opposing quarterback, they should be able to find a way to win this game in front of their home fans.
According to Clevta, home favorites of between 7-10 points were 144-36-1 straight up from 2018 to 2022, good for an 80.0% win-rate. In Cleveland we trust.
Week 9 Survivor Fade: New Orleans Saints
Week 1 Fade: Kansas City Chiefs (Result: Lost 21-20 against the Detroit Lions)
Week 2 Fade: Buffalo Bills (Result: Won 38-10 against the Detroit Lions)
Week 3 Fade: Philadelphia Eagles (Result: Won 25-11 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
Week 4 Fade: Dallas Cowboys (Result: Won 38-3 against the New England Patriots)
Week 5 Fade: Washington Commanders (Result: Lost 40-20 against the Chicago Bears)
Week 6 Fade: Buffalo Bills (Result: Won 14-9 against the New York Giants)
Week 7 Fade: San Francisco 49ers (Result: Lost 22-17 against the Minnesota Vikings)
Week 8 Fade: Buffalo Bills (Result: Won 24-18 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
To qualify as a “Survivor Fade,” a team must be at least a 6-point favorite at the time of writing. Through nine weeks, three of our eight ‘teams to fade’ have lost outright and five have failed to cover the spread – including each of the last three teams to “fade.”
In Week 9, there are only two teams that meet our criteria for being a team to “fade,” which makes the New Orleans Saints our team to fade since we took the Cleveland Browns as our survivor selection.
Admittedly, the Saints do not appear to be overly untrustworthy this week. In Week 8, they had the 9th-highest defensive pressure rate of any team in the NFL, while the Chicago Bears ranked 28th. On the season, New Orleans’ defense ranks 6th in EPA/play and 2nd in success rate while Chicago’s defense ranks 30th in EPA/play and 16th in success rate. The Saints have allowed the 3rd-fewest opponent first downs per game, whereas Chicago ranks tied for 14th in that metric. All of the defensive yards-per-play metrics also support New Orleans winning on Sunday and perhaps winning comfortably.
The main risk factor for New Orleans this weekend is their offense, which ranks 22nd in yards per play in 2023. The Saints rank 26th in rushing yards per play and 18th in passing yards per play, which is not typical of a team that is favored by more than a touchdown. Derek Carr has been underwhelming, ranking 20th in passer rating from a clean pocket and 20th in passer rating when under pressure this year, according to PFF.
There are more than a few reasons that New Orleans is only 4-4 this season despite playing one of the softer schedule’s in the entire league. The Saints have already lost to Green Bay 18-17, Tampa Bay 26-9, and Houston 20-13 – all of which are .500 or worse this season. New Orleans has only narrowly defeated the Titans and Panthers, each of which is below .500 through eight weeks. Thus, New Orleans is a team that we will save until later in the year if we are lucky enough to still be alive later this November or early in December.