NFL Weekly Grind Down: Week One - Page 2

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2013-09-05 21:06:53

Oakland at Indianapolis

Oakland Raiders						Indianapolis Colts
Sun – 1:00PM ET						Lucas Oil Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		9.5	47	18.75				-9.5	47	28.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Off.	18.1	26	8	28		Off.	22.3	18	7	22
Def.	27.7	28	20	18		Def.	24.2	21	21	29
Top Players	FP-S	FP-3	DvP	FP-A		Top Players	FP-S	FP-3	DvP	FP-A
Wilson			11	15.62		Luck	18.40	15.49	26	18.65
McFadden	10.96	9.37	22	21.04		Bradshaw	11.96	13.25	28	22.80
Moore	9.41	5.60	28	32.32		Wayne	13.50	8.50	16	27.76
Ausberry	0.85	0.00	3	8.43		Fleener	4.43	3.30	27	11.51

Indianapolis

• Andrew Luck looks to be in for a big year. He has two new weapons in Ahmad Bradshaw and Darrius Heyward-Bey. Luck gets a fantastic Week 1 matchup against the Raiders who ranked in the bottom third of the league against almost every offensive position. Don’t sleep on Luck Week 1, a handcuff with Reggie Wayne could really pay off in these big tournaments.
• The Colts RB spot is going to be a mess for a couple weeks. It sounds like eventually Ahmad Bradshaw is going to get the nod, but Vick Ballard is currently listed as the starter and there will be a timeshare for a couple weeks.
• A lot of people aren’t very high on Reggie Wayne this season which baffles me a bit. Sure he is getting up there in age, but old man Wayne has great chemistry with Luck and had a good preseason. Luck is going to be even better this season and I think Wayne can match his output from last season. I like Wayne Week 1, but would pass on the other WR’s until we know how many balls will be thrown their way.
• Luck loves to hit his TE’s, but both Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener hurt each other’s fantasy value when both healthy.

Oakland

• Terrelle Pryor gets the start at QB over Matt Flynn. While Pryor isn’t going to put up monster numbers, he will definitely give his team a better chance of winning. He can make plays with his legs and the team seems to rally around him. The Colts aren’t a great defense, but I think it’s safe to avoid Pryor this week.
• Darren McFadden isn’t a great season long fantasy player because he is always injured and ends up missing half of the season, but that’s what is so great about daily fantasy sports, all we care about is one week. McFadden says he is good to go Week 1 and I love the matchup against the Colts who really struggled to stop the run last season.
• This Raiders receiving core isn’t the most talented bunch in the league and their QB isn’t going to be racking up many 300 yard passing games. You have a deep threat with Denarius Moore, but all these WR’s are a bit risky.

Kansas City at Jacksonville

Kansas City Chiefs						Jacksonville Jaguars
Sun – 1:00PM ET						EverBank Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-3.5	41	22.25				3.5	41	18.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Off.	13.2	32	32	5		Off.	15.9	30	21	30
Def.	26.6	25	12	27		Def.	27.8	29	22	30
Top Players	FP-S	FP-3	DvP	FP-A		Top Players	FP-S	FP-3	DvP	FP-A
Smith	12.77	0.04	18	16.79		Gabbert	10.01		22	17.96
Charles	13.88	13.00	30	24.95		Jones-Drew	11.50		24	21.53
Bowe	9.63		14	27.71		Blackmon	9.55	15.90	19	28.49
Kelce			17	9.81		Lewis	6.50	6.93	5	8.48

Jacksonville

• Blaine Gabbert is well, Blaine Gabbert. The Jags seem to think that he has improved, but I’m not buying it until I see it.
• MJD and the Jags haven’t exactly had a great relationship over the last couple years. While you might think that this would hurt MJD’s value, I actually think it will help his value. MJD is in a contract year and the Jaguars are not going to want to bring him back. They are going to get all that they can out of him and MJD is a guy that can handle a ton of touches. I love the Week 1 matchup and think he is ranked too low on most expert’s projections.
• Justin Blackmon is suspended so I think that helps the value of both Cecil Shorts and Marcedes Lewis. They were two of Gabbert’s favorite targets last season.

Kansas City

• Alex Smith should be a better option at QB than the Chiefs have had over the last few years, but he just can’t seem to get the ball down the field. I read that he is averaging something like 6 yards per passing attempt in the preseason. His upside is certainly limited, but the matchup is there.
• Andy Reid is typically thought of as a pass first coach, but LeSean McCoy averaged over 20 touches in his 12 games last season. Reid will not have a great QB at the helm, so I think they are going to be giving Charles all the touches he can handle. Charles should be in for a big week against this bad Jaguars offense.
• I am expecting a much better season out of Over Dwayne Bowe. Not only will he have a QB to throw him the ball, but he is a year older, therefore a year wiser. If he is really cheap on any sites, throw him in on a GPP team.

Tampa Bay at NY Jets

Tampa Bay Buccaneers						New York Jets
Sun – 1:00PM ET						MetLife Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-3	40	21.5				3	40	18.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Off.	24.3	13	10	15		Off.	17.6	28	30	12
Def.	24.6	23	32	1		Def.	23.4	20	2	26
Top Players	FP-S	FP-3	DvP	FP-A		Top Players	FP-S	FP-3	DvP	FP-A
Freeman	16.59	11.54	7	13.85		Sanchez	9.07	4.47	31	20.35
Martin	17.94	14.80	17	20.27		Ivory	6.03	2.20	16	20.09
Jackson	14.03	10.63	4	23.84		Hill	4.88		31	34.09
Stocker	1.91	4.30	11	8.94		Winslow	1.70		28	11.61

New York Jets

• Geno Smith will make his first career start and your guess is as good as any as to how it will turn out. He doesn’t have many weapons at his disposal and he didn’t amaze in the preseason. The safest route is to take a wait and see approach.
• The whole Jets team is in fantasy football purgatory. Rookie QB, split carries at the running back position with Bilal Powell and Chris Ivory, and a group of receivers that fail to impress. Even though they are playing the bad Buccaneers defense, I’m avoiding all Jets.

Tampa Bay

• You can ignore that 7th ranked pass defense of the Jets, they no longer have Darrelle Revis. Josh Freeman had a good season last year and having Doug Martin run all over other teams really opens up the field for Freeman. There are obviously bigger names at QB with more potential, but I think Freeman plays well and throws a couple TD passes.
• There are big expectations for one Doug Martin. After his monster rookie season, he looks to have an even bigger season this year. The Buccs have said that Martin will play almost all third downs as well so this is one of the few situations where you don’t have to worry about a backup taking touches away from him. Love Martin against the Jets.
• I may be a little too high on the Buccs this week, but half of that is because they are playing the Jets who have to be the most disoriented team in the league. I fully expect Vincent Jackson to beat the Jets deep for a long TD, that’s my TD call of the week.

Tennessee at Pittsburgh

Tennessee Titans						Pittsburgh Steelers
Sun – 1:00PM ET						Heinz Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		7	42	17.5				-7	42	24.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Off.	20.6	23	22	21		Off.	21.0	22	14	26
Def.	29.4	32	26	24		Def.	19.6	6	1	2
Top Players	FP-S	FP-3	DvP	FP-A		Top Players	FP-S	FP-3	DvP	FP-A
Locker	13.01	11.15	1	12.17		Roethlisberger	17.83	16.34	25	18.43
Johnson	12.09	12.10	4	15.53		Redman	5.78	3.90	29	24.21
Britt	7.53	5.13	6	24.21		Brown	10.01	14.13	25	30.44
Walker	3.81	9.27	6	8.51		Miller	11.14	12.35	30	12.71

Pittsburgh

• When I first looked at this game, I thought it had blowout written all over it. Then I looked at the Vegas lines and saw that the Steelers were only favored by 7. I double checked to make sure I wasn’t looking at the first half line. Vegas sees something here that I don’t. Ben Roethlisberger no longer has Mike Wallace, but he still has some quality WR’s and is facing a Titans defense that was dreadful against the pass last season. I expect Big Ben to get some extra calls this week with their RB situation.
• Technically, Isaac Redman is the starter this week, but no one really knows what the Steelers are planning to do with their run game. Maybe take a shot on Redman if he is minimum salary, but don’t pay anything more than that for him.
• The WR position is where the value is at. With Mike Wallace gone, Antonio Brown and Emmanuel Sanders are now the top two wideouts in Pittsburgh. I’m not sure if the fantasy sites didn’t get the memo or what, but they are both underpriced across the board. I’m really tempted to take a Big Ben/Brown/Sanders combo this week.
• Heath Miller looks like he is going to be out a while, just means bump up Brown and Sanders even more.

Tennessee

• Jake Locker has looked pretty good in the preseason, there are definitely some times that I think he will be a good play this year, but facing the Steelers in Pittsburgh is not one of them.
• Chris Johnson aka CJ2K aka CJ1K aka CJ?? faces a Steelers defense that was ranked number 4 against the run last season. Again, I’m not seeing how this is only a 7 point spread.
• All of the numbers say to avoid the Titans players this week. The Steelers defense is still a top 10 defense and the young Titans could be in for a long day.

NFL Grind Down Page 2 – Page 3