NFL Wild Card Odds: 49ers vs. Cowboys Picks & Prediction

by Nick Galaida (nickgalaida) Last Updated 2022-01-16 15:38:31

NFL Odds: Wild Card Sunday

On Sunday afternoon, the San Francisco 49ers and the Dallas Cowboys will battle at AT&T Stadium. San Francisco finished the regular season with a thrilling come-from-behind victory over the Los Angeles Rams on the road to clinch a playoff berth. Dallas won 12 games en route to securing an NFC East division title. Oddsmakers are anticipating a tightly-contested affair between these two teams this weekend, pricing the Cowboys as only a field goal favorite on the spread. Let’s take a deeper dive into the data to see where bettors can find value in this NFC postseason affair.

49ers Preview

Since Week 10, San Francisco has averaged 32.0 rushing attempts per game for 140.1 yards (4.4 yards-per-carry). Elijah Mitchell has been outstanding across his last five games, averaging 98.8 yards per game. Mitchell certainly benefits from running behind one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, featuring Trent Williams, Laken Tomlinson, Alex Mack, and Tom Compton. If Jimmy Garoppolo can take care of the football on Sunday, this offense should have little trouble putting points on the board.

During the regular season, the 49ers ranked 25th in the NFL in opponent passer rating, allowing 25 touchdowns against 9 interceptions. Only the Philadelphia Eagles and the Jacksonville Jaguars allowed a higher completion percentage to opposing quarterbacks in 2021. Yet, this secondary unit was much-improved during the second-half of the campaign, allowing only 6.3 passing yards per attempt. Since Week 10, this defense has also been stout against the run, allowing only 3.6 yards-per-carry and 78.6 yards-per-game. The 49ers held both Joe Mixon and Dalvin Cook under 60 rushing yards. Expect a strong day performance from this group in the Wild Card round.

Cowboys Preview

Dak Prescott was masterful down the stretch, posting a sterling 13-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio over the final four games of the regular season. Hidden in the stellar statistical output is the fact that his opponents in that stretch were the New York Giants, Washington Football Team, the defensively-depleted Arizona Cardinals, and the Philadelphia Eagles, who were resting nearly all of their starters. Ezekiel Elliott has been a shell of his former self during the second-half of the campaign, surpassing 52 rushing yards only once in his final 11 games played–in the regular season finale against Philadelphia’s second string defense. This offense is not as strong as their season-long numbers indicate.

In 2021, Dallas led the NFL with 26 interceptions, and was third only to the Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots in opponent passer rating. Since Week 6, only Derek Carr has managed to throw for more than 264 yards against this Dallas secondary. Carr’s performance came on Thanksgiving–a game in which the Cowboys had multiple coaches ruled out at the last minute due to COVID-19 related issues, leaving the sidelines without the usual bodies responsible for making in-game adjustments. Though Dallas has been strong defending the air this year, they have been incredibly vulnerable on the ground–permitting 4.5 yards-per-carry. This unit has been even worse since Week 9, allowing 130.0 rushing yards per contest on 4.8 yards-per-carry.

Wild Card Pick & Prediction

On the season, the 49ers ranked 25th in plays run per game, but Dallas played at the league’s second-quickest pace. However, over the final three weeks of the regular season, the Cowboys ranked only 13th in plays run per game. Bettors should expect a heavy emphasis on the running game for San Francisco–meaning a lot of running clock and longer possessions on scoring drives. The 49ers defense has been good enough to at least slow down a dynamic Dallas offense. Take the under in this spot.

PICK: Under 51

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