NFL Wild Card Odds: Raiders vs. Bengals Picks and Prediction

by Nick Galaida (nickgalaida) Last Updated 2022-01-15 02:25:30

NFL Wild Card Odds

On Saturday afternoon, the Las Vegas Raiders and the Cincinnati Bengals will open the NFL postseason at Paul Brown Stadium. The Raiders clinched an improbable playoff berth, winning each of their final four regular season contests by a combined 12 points. The Bengals secured the AFC North division title after a stellar second half of the campaign, led by a dynamic offense featuring two of the most exciting young players in the game in Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase. Despite the recent success of Las Vegas, oddsmakers are expecting a relatively easy victory for Cincinnati on Saturday, pricing them as 5.5-point home favorites on the spread. Let’s take a closer look at the data to see where bettors can find value in this NFL Wild Card matchup.

Raiders

Per Pro Football Focus, Derek Carr graded as the 15th-best quarterback this season out of 39 qualifying signal callers. Though the Raiders finished the regular season strong, winning four consecutive games–Carr was not a big reason for their success. Since Week 13, Carr owns a 6-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio, and has averaged only 231.7 passing yards per game. When these two teams met in Week 11, Carr completed 19-of-27 passes for only 215 passing yards, one touchdown and one interception. Last weekend against the Los Angeles Chargers, Carr missed a number of open receivers down-the-field. As the season has progressed, it has become increasingly clear that left tackle Kolton Miller is the only reliable member of this offensive line.

Though the Raiders have allowed the 9th-highest passer rating to opposing quarterbacks this season, their secondary unit has not been that bad. Since Week 11, there are arguments to be made that this secondary unit has been dominant. The Raiders held Joe Burrow to 129 passing yards, Patrick Mahomes to 240 passing yards, and held each of Taylor Heinicke, Nick Mullens, Drew Lock, and Carson Wentz to 186 passing yards or less. Las Vegas has also been much better against the run during the latter half of the campaign, allowing only 3.7 yards-per-attempt since Week 11.

Bengals

Joe Burrow is elite. Per Pro Football Focus, only Tom Brady finished the regular season with a higher passing grade amongst qualified quarterbacks. In Burrow’s final five regular season performances, he averaged 355.2 passing yards per game, posting a 12-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio, while completing 72.4 percent of his pass attempts. In that span, he surpassed 300 yards passing in four of his five games played. Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd form arguably the most dangerous wide receiver trio in the NFL. If Cincinnati can get the offensive line to be serviceable in pass protection on Saturday, it could be a big day for this offense.

Defensively, the Bengals have been mediocre defending the air this season, allowing a 93.1 passer rating to opposing quarterbacks this fall. From Week 9 to Week 17, the Bengals permitted a 66.4 completion percentage, 14 passing touchdowns and 5 interceptions to opposing signal callers. Cincinnati has also been mediocre against the run in 2021, allowing opponents to run for 4.3 yards-per-carry. Still, when Las Vegas and Cincinnati met in Week 11, the Bengals held the Raiders to only 72 rushing yards on 18 carries. The Bengals also showed notable improvement in this area during the second-half of the season, allowing only 3.6 yards-per-carry from Week 11 to Week 16–facing respectable talents such as Josh Jacobs, Najee Harris, Austin Ekeler, and Javonte Williams in that stretch.

NFL Playoff Pick for Saturday

Per EdgHouse, the Raiders are 6-2 ATS this season when priced as a field goal underdog or greater. Six of the Raiders’ last seven games have been decided by four points or less. The Bengals are only 3-2 ATS when favored by a field goal or more in 2021. Though Cincinnati should win this game outright, the Raiders should have enough to keep this one close. Buy up to the key number of six and take Las Vegas to cover on Saturday.

PICK: Raiders +6 (-130)

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