NHL Daily Plays: Friday, March 27th
Despite there only being a three-game slate, I think there are numerous options tonight worth mentioning. With three seemingly one-sided matchups on the board, it might be a night with lots of overlap, but perhaps a pick or two from here can separate you from the field. Without further ado, let’s get into the picks.
Because it is a three-game slate, I will recommend only three players at each skater position, and two goalies.
GOALTENDERS
Make sure to check the RotoGrinders NHL Starting Goalies Page to confirm that the goalies listed below are starting prior to game time.
I think the path is pretty clear for your goaltending tonight. Here is the path I am looking at.
Devan Dubnyk, Minnesota Wild – Dubnyk gets a home date against the Flames. The Wild have not been playing great recently, but Dubnyk has been masking their poor possession stats from the past month. Luckily for the Wild, they get a matchup against the Flames, and their woeful possession stats. I expect Minnesota to dominate possession and give Dubnyk some goal support. Dubnyk has a ridiculous .930 sv pct, and he is showing no signs of fatigue or letting up. One can argue that he has been the most valuable commodity to the Wild team, as they were a cellar dweller with bad goaltending, and a force to be reckoned with after acquiring Dubnyk.
Corey Crawford, Chicago Blackhawks – Chicago has certainly not been themselves recently, and Columbus is not as bad as their results might indicate, but I cannot see the Jackets coming into Chicago, and taking a win. I think Crawford takes a lot of unfair criticism for being a product of his team, but he is still an above average goaltender, and he was a big reason for Chicago’s cup. Many say that the Hawks win “despite” him, but his .925 sv pct argues otherwise. Even if Chicago keeps up their shaky play, I expect them to do enough to get the win, and Crawford can also bail them out as well.
CENTERS
High Tier – Tyler Seguin, Dallas Stars – Seguin is my play of the night, as he gets a matchup against the inept Oilers. Dallas has really improved their puck possession numbers since February 1st, as they are the league’s 3rd best corsi % team since that date. Tyler Seguin should have no problem generating numerous scoring chances, as the Stars are generating 31 scoring chances per 60 minutes, and the Oilers are giving up 30 scoring chances per 60 since February 1st. The game is in Edmonton, but this has all the makings of a Dallas Stars offensive showcase, and we all know at this point that Seguin is usually the guy putting up the points.
Middle Tier – Jason Spezza, Dallas Stars – Spezza comes in with a moderate price tag, and he can be great exposure to the Stars. He will avoid the RNH line at even strength, and get to play with the big guns on the powerplay. Spezza has been a let down for Dallas, but he can still score, and generate shots, and there aren’t many better situations to do so, than facing the Oilers depth lines. Spezza is on pace for a 200 shot season, and he’s sitting at 54 points, so he is someone who can give you cheap exposure to Dallas, and allow you to spend on other places.
Low Tier – Brad Richards, Chicago Blackhawks – Richards gets an opportunity to skate with Brandon Saad and Patrick Sharp. Richards sees time on each of the powerplay units Chicago has to offer, and with Toews’ line likely having their hands full with Dubinsky, I think the Richards line reaps the benefits of facing weaker competition. Richards loves to shoot the puck, and playing with 2 great linemates will also bring out his playmaking ability.
WINGERS
High Tier – Zach Parise, Minnesota Wild – Parise gets a matchup against a team that looks like they match up well based on results, but it’s clear that the 2014-2015 Calgary Flames are the 2013-2014 Colorado Avalanche’s equivalent. This is a horrible possession team that continues to confuse the analytical crowd of the hockey universe. To those who will argue that this proves analytics are dumb, it proves the opposite. Calgary is an anomaly, in an otherwise correlated season of teams’ possession stats, and their record. I look for Zach Parise to take advantage of this. Parise is a guy who we can trust tonight, as Mark Giordano is out. Since he’s been out, Calgary has a sub 45% corsi %, and a guy like Parise, who loves to shoot the puck should benefit greatly. Parise is averaging close to 4 shots per game, and he should see a bump in that category, as Minnesota should be able to control the play. 4+ shots vs weak goaltending sounds like a good way to spend my cap room.
Middle Tier – Taylor Hall, Edmonton Oilers – Since his return from injury, Taylor Hall has notched multiple shots and a point in all 3 games. Hall is not skating with his usual linemates, but this could be of benefit to him, as he is seeing weaker competition than he is used to. He is also the go to scorer on that line, and that is why he is shooting the puck more. Dallas is a good possession team, but they play at a very fast pace, and I think that will benefit Hall. With 10 shots in his last 3 games, and an uptick in tempo, I can see Hall firing 5+ shots on net, and hopefully one finds the twine.
Low Tier – Kris Versteeg, Chicago Blackhawks – I mentioned Brad Richards because the Toews line has tougher competition. However, I think the Toews line can still produce tonight, but without having to pay top dollar, we can plug in Versteeg. Versteeg has had an up and down year, and coming off of a healthy scratch, you know Versteeg is going to do everything he is asked to do to stay in the lineup. He is being asked to score tonight, as he is on the top line, and I expect him to play with a lot more energy, and fire. Versteeg is as good as his linemates, and playing with Toews and Hossa should ensure that he looks good in the eyes of Joel Quenneville.
DEFENSE
High Tier – Duncan Keith, Chicago Blackhawks – I prefer it when Seabrook is on the top powerplay, but Keith will do. Keith has seen a dip in production, but his minutes have been inconsistent on the top unit. As always, it is best to trust the depth charts and we have indication that Keith should be in a top powerplay role tonight. Keith is having a down year, but all we can do is keep playing him when he’s getting this powerplay role and hope for the best.
Middle Tier – Ryan Suter, Minnesota Wild – This is more of a pick directed towards +/- sites, but Suter makes for a great play. Sure, the Monahan line can score, and we know that they’ll be Suter’s big responsibility, but their possession numbers, PDO, and results are unsustainable. Suter is an elite defenseman and should help slow this line down along with Mikko Koivu’s forward line. Suter also gets top powerplay minutes and takes over 2 shots on net per game.
Low Tier – Justin Schultz, Edmonton Oilers – This is more of a pick directed for GPPs, but I really like Schultz tonight on non +/- sites. Dallas’ pace plays right into the hands of the offensive minded, Schultz, and I look for him to get involved off the rush, and capitalize on his top powerplay minutes. Schultz has been a bit of a disappointment this year for Edmonton, but he is always going to be trigger happy from the point, and he is always worth radaring for his cheap price considering the upside and potential he has as a player.