NHL Daily Plays: Sunday, March 15th
It is a Sunday afternoon, and with MLB around the corner, this is one of your last chances to get a good slate of games and a nice prize pool for NHL DFS. So, without further ado, let’s get to the real reason you are here, which is the picks.
Goaltenders
Tonight is a tough night to peg a goalie for a win, because most of my teams that I like are on the road, and some are on back to backs, which always hurts their chances at a win, just a little bit. Without any chalk plays in net, I think it’s alright to take a few risks in goal today, and trust the analytics as to which team should win today. My goaltenders might have a slight GPP spin to them today, but with no Toronto, Buffalo, Arizona, or Edmonton playing, there are no locks for goalie.
Cam Talbot – Talbot might be the safest choice tonight in goal, but he is far from “safe”. The Panthers are a desperate team, and in need of a win to make the playoffs, however travelling to New York to play at Madison Square Garden is not always a great remedy for that quest. The Panthers play the slowest Corsi pace and scoring chance pace game in the NHL since February 1st, and that means we shouldn’t see too many high-quality scoring chances for either side, as both teams are responsible defensively. The difference here is in goaltending. The worst goalie active on this slate is Dan Ellis, and I look for the Rangers to bury their chances, as Ellis has a worse save percentage at even strength than any active goalie in hockey since 2012. That ES save % is shockingly sitting at .902. Talbot should get the goal support, and not face too many dangerous shots.
Braden Holtby – In what many will consider as the game of the day, I am looking for Washington to squeak out a win on home ice here. This is another example of a game that can go either way, but with each team tied with 82 points, I expect a playoff atmosphere in Washington. The Capitals are a much better team than Boston, in my opinion, and the Bruins are on a back to back. This game should be even, but I expect the special teams and extra day of rest to give Washington the edge in this affair. Holtby is having the best year of his career and has shown the ability to steal hockey games that the Capitals did not deserve to win. Without any chalk goalies, Holtby serves as a guy who will provide upside, and a high save percentage.
Other Options: Cam Ward, Frederik Andersen
Forwards
With no cupcake matchups tonight, I am simply looking to roster the lines that have been playing the best hockey in the league on this slate. There is no point to look at Vegas lines, or try to break down which team is likely to win, because these games are all very even and close. I am simply looking for guys who are producing, or underachieving to roster on my team on this slate.
Eric Staal – The Hurricanes have let me down a lot recently, but recency bias on pure results is a great way to lose in daily fantasy hockey. Besides one poor game against the Stars, this combo of the Staals and Elias Lindholm should be in line for a good game tonight. Want to hear something unsustainable? The Staal brothers have a -13% difference between their goals for % and their Corsi . They have a 58 Corsi when on the ice together, and only score 45% of the goals, despite creating a lot of scoring chances each and every night. Sure, stats don’t correct themselves overnight, but I value scoring chances more than raw output results. Considering Columbus has been very mediocre at even strength, and Bobrovsky is not the goalie we used to fear this season, thanks to countless injuries, we can load up on the Staal brothers and Elias Lindholm, but if I had to pick 1, it is Eric Staal, who loves to shoot the puck and is the finisher on that line.
Rick Nash – Nash and his 39 goals head home to MSG, and he has a good chance to make it 40 goals tonight. If you look under the Cam Talbot section, you can see that I expect a slower paced game without many chances, but shooting on Dan Ellis makes anyone a great play. Rick Nash has great chemistry with Brassard and Zuccarello, and it’s clear that these two are looking for him to take the shots. Nash has 22 icf/60, meaning he attempts 22 shots for every 60 minutes he’s on the ice at even strength. On average, a star will play 15 minutes at even strength and another 3-4 on the power play. Consider Nash’s volume shooting, and facing Dan Ellis, it is fair to assume that the sniper will make good on one of his countless shot attempts.
Jamie Benn – It is rare to recommend a skater against St. Louis, but Benn has everything working in his favour tonight. The return of Tyler Seguin will propel Benn, once again. Benn gets the luxury of facing St. Louis on a back to back, with their horrific backup, Jake Allen. While St. Louis is known as a stingy team, and they certainly are, the Stars are number two in the NHL in CF % since February 1st, and they are second in the NHL in scoring chances per 60. Yes, St. Louis is a solid team, but with the back to back and poor goaltending, I’m going to look for some exposure to Dallas tonight.
Jakub Voracek – Voracek has seen his price dip across the industry, but I like him back with Giroux. Voracek sees the top power-play minutes, and I am still not convinced that Andrew Hammond is for real. Sorry if this bothers anyone, but a 27-year-old with an .890 save percentage in the minor leagues does not become a Carey Price, Pekka Rinne hybrid on steroids for very long. I think Philly gets to the “Hamburglar” today. When Hammond is in net, Ottawa has a respectable 50% Corsi but are scoring 70% of the goals, and with a guy who has never shown this type of production can last, you have to expect a team to just wipe him out eventually. The Flyers have a great power play as well, and Voracek is often getting multiple shots on the powerplay alone.
My other options are any of the linemates of the guys listed above.
Defensemen
Justin Faulk – I love Eric Staal’s line tonight for what they do at even strength, but the Hurricanes PP has been equally unlucky. Faulk has been putting up monster numbers for a defenseman, and you have to think that they are sustainable considering the number of chances Carolina gets a night, and the amount of time he sees on the ice. Faulk has big time upside for a defenseman. Any defenseman who averages 3 shots per game, is going to put up numbers offensively, and that is exactly what Faulk does.
John Klingberg – Klingberg is back, and I expect him to jump back on the top powerplay. As mentioned, St Louis is on a back to back, and Klingberg should benefit from this. Back to backs usually mean tired legs and lazy penalties, and Klingberg is always on the ice with that top unit. Klingberg is a great skater and has great vision, and I expect him to get in on any of the powerplay action that the Stars have against Jake Allen.