NHL Daily Plays: Sunday, March 1st
Hello everyone, I hope you used my article yesterday and found some success.
Today’s slate features a lot of competitive games, and no real must plays, making it a slate where we might not see too much overlap. Tomorrow is the trade deadline, so hopefully all the players have their heads in the game today!
Here are my top picks for Sunday.
Goaltenders
Make sure to check the RotoGrinders Starting Goalies Page to confirm that the goalies listed below are starting prior to game time.
Braden Holtby, Washington Capitals – It saddens me to see the Leafs getting the awful results they have been getting recently, despite the even play, but their win against Philly was probably their worst game of the season. Then, in typical Leafs fashion, they go into Montreal and completely outplay the Habs, but end up losing 4-0. This team is not finishing, and their top line is playing horrible hockey right now. I expect the Capitals to provide Holtby with goal support, and I expect the Leafs to stay competitive, but find a way to lose on this back to back against a much better Capitals team. Holtby is having his best season, so even if the Leafs come out gunning, he has shown he has the ability to steal a hockey game this year.
Marc-Andre Fleury, Pittsburgh Penguins – Fleury comes into this game as one of the safest plays of the night. Columbus may have competed with Pittsburgh, and squeaked out a 2-1 win in their last meeting, but that was with Brandon Dubinsky in the lineup. Also, even with his great defensive presence, the Crosby-Kunitz-Perron line (at the time) generated an 80% corsi for, and had no results to show for it. McHilleney made some brilliant saves as well. Without Dubinsky, I expect Pittsburgh to get some higher quality chances to go along with their puck possession dominance, and give Fleury enough goal support that he will need to get the win. Fleury has been tremendous this year, so he is not just a matchup play. If Pittsburgh comes out flat, Fleury has the ability, like Holtby, to take over a game and win it himself.
Other Options: Ben Bishop, Brian Elliott (if he starts)
Forwards
Kyle Palmieri, Anaheim Ducks – Any time you have a cheap filler playing with Corey Perry and Ryan Getzlaf at even strength and on the powerplay, you almost need to roster them. These guys make anyone better, and this is proven in the three-year sample size of when Palmieri has skated with Perry and Getzlaf. Since 2012, Palmieri has a corsi increase of 6% when playing with these guys, and any time you have puck possession with talented players, you will score goals. When playing with Getzlaf on a line (larger sample size than Perry) in 337 minutes, he has recorded 18 individual points, and the Ducks score four goals per 60 minutes. When Palmieri is on the ice without Getzlaf the Ducks score just three goals per 60 minutes, and his individual points drop significantly. So, there is the proof you might have wanted. Palmieri gets a huge boost tonight against a fast paced Dallas Stars team.
Patric Hornqvist, Pittsburgh Penguins – Hornqvist gets the benefit of skating with David Perron and Sidney Crosby tonight. I favor Hornqvist more than Perron because of his job with the top powerplay unit. Pittsburgh is a very overrated even strength team, so if they don’t perform there, you are going to want your guys getting powerplay time on this lethal unit. When this exact five was together early in the year, they were scoring at an elite rate. Hornqvist is a guy who loves to shoot the puck, so that gives him a nice advantage, as he plays with the best playmaker in hockey. When Hornqvist is on the ice with Crosby, his line scores 65% of the goals, making them safe on +/- sites. Factor in the powerplay time, high shot total, and safety for +/- and you’re looking at a great play here.
Alexander Steen, St. Louis Blues – Steen was disappointing last night, but I am going to go back to the well tonight. Let me start by saying that the Vancouver Canucks are not a good hockey team, and that their depth lines are really lacking talent. I was right about Edmonton matching up Nugent Hopkins with the Tarasenko line, and unfortunately I was wrong about the fact that Steen, Backes and Oshie would go off against the depth lines of Edmonton. The good news is that tonight is a new night, and Steen is on the ice for the Blues entire powerplay, which makes him a really high upside play, and his price has come down because of his recent game results. I expect the Steen line to face the weaker lines of Vancouver, and hopefully tonight, Steen gets back to volume shooting and scoring goals. Steen is averaging over three shots per game, and after Eddie Lack’s last performance, any shot is a good shot.
Nicklas Backstrom, Washington Capitals – Backstrom’s line was matched up with Phil Kessel and company for much of the last meeting between Toronto and Washington. That line played a horrible game, but I expect much better results tonight. Phil Kessel, Tyler Bozak and James Van Riemsdyk seem disinterested in playing defense, as reflected by the fact that they are allowing over 32 scoring chances per 60 minutes at even strength (the Buffalo Sabres have that exact average as a team). Consider the fact that Ovechkin and Backstrom are great offensive players and make things happen every shift, they should be in store for multiple scoring chances, and with James Reimer as the Leafs line of defense, I bet the duo combine on a few tonight.
Tyler Toffoli, Los Angeles Kings – I might never write an article when the LA Kings are playing where I do not recommend this guy. He has been absolutely phenomenal for the] Kings, and he is third in the NHL in points per 60 minutes behind Tyler Johnson and Rick Nash. He was playing 11 to 12 minutes a night early in the year, but Darryl Sutter has finally realized what kind of star power this guy has and is playing him in the high teens every night. Him, Jeff Carter and Dwight King have absolutely incredible chemistry, and Toffoli is matchup proof at this price. Since January 1st, Toffoli ranks top 10 in corsi for %, and he also ranks top three in scoring chances per 60 minutes. This is a special line in LA, and at Toffoli’s price you almost have to roster him on DraftKings.
Other Options: Marcus Johansson, Ryan Getzlaf, Nikita Kucherov, Tyler Johnson, Jeff Carter
Defensemen
Cam Fowler, Anaheim Ducks – Fowler has had a disappointing season offensively, but with Sami Vatanen sidelined, it’s his powerplay and his chance to QB the powerplay once again. Fowler has not produced much with Vatanen out, but any defenseman’s output numbers are going to be volatile. As long as the minutes and PP time are there, which they have been, I have no problem rostering him at this cheap price.
Kris Letang, Pittsburgh Penguins – Letang is an absolute fantasy stud on defense, and with that top powerplay back in action from earlier in the year, I expect Letang to finish the year on a bang. Columbus is on a back to back, and Letang is one of the safest plays because of his minutes, blocked shots, and shot attempts. I am going to predict he gets at least one point tonight and is left underowned at his hefty price tag.
Other Options: Aaron Ekblad, Drew Doughty, Anton Stralman, Mike Green
Best of luck grinders!