NHL Daily Plays: Sunday, March 29th
This is the second-to-last Sunday of the NHL season where there won’t be 15 games of baseball overlapping all the NHL games and getting rid of the big prize pools. If you are thinking of taking days off, I encourage you to think twice and take advantage of these last few hockey slates. On this Sunday, we have several early games going, and plenty of great action going on tonight.
Goaltenders
As I’ve stated in previous articles, there are two methods I use when picking a goalie. The first is the cash game method, in which we have to target a guy who we expect to get the win, while disregarding everything else. It does not matter if he makes 15 saves, as long as he gets the win. The other method is to target a goalie who can make 30+ saves, and have a lower probability at getting that win, but providing more upside if he does. The chalk goalie is usually the one who is more safe, but sometimes it’s hard to win with the same capped ceiling as half of the field with this goalie. With all the games going today, and no lottery teams in action, it’s best to go with that second method, as you really don’t have a choice today.
Pekka Rinne – With a back to back, we cannot be sure if Rinne will start tonight, but I’d imagine he gets the nod, as Nashville tries to get their star netminder in playoff form. Rinne has been struggling a little bit, and Calgary is a team that has really overachieved to this point in the season. With Rinne’s struggles, and Calgary’s better results than we could expect from their possession numbers, this game does not stand out as obvious to most to target Rinne, and Nashville is only a -160 favourite. Considering all that, I think Rinne has a much higher chance to win, and I think he’ll be lower owned than he should be.
Marc-Andre Fleury – Fleury gets a nice matchup against the Sharks, who have mailed in their season. The Sharks play far too wide open of a pace for a team like Pittsburgh to be shut down, and I expect Fleury to get plenty of goal support. Despite the back to back, Fleury sat out yesterday’s action, and he should be good to go tonight, and perhaps carry his team if they have tired legs. Fleury has been an elite goaltender this year, and without Letang and Perron tonight, it could be a more even game than we’d hope for. However, I expect Pittsburgh’s top-six to outplay the Sharks, and Fleury also has an edge over Niemi in the goaltending category. Fleury should face 30+ shots, but I expect him to stop most of them, and come away with a win.
Forwards
Anders Lee – Looking at Lee’s game log might not be appealing, but all you have to do is look at Detroit’s last few weeks on the penalty kill, and Lee’s season numbers with JT and Bailey. Lee gets a chance to skate on that line again, and it’ll be his second game back with the duo that combine for 70 shot attempts for per 60 minutes, and constantly dominate the action. Detroit has awful goaltending right now, and considering the volume of chances Lee gets, the PP1 time, and Detroit’s weak penalty kill, it’s a perfect storm for Lee and company to do damage.
Patrick Hornqvist – Looking at some WOWY numbers, it is clear that Hornqvist reaps the benefits of skating with Crosby. Surprise! Hornqvist gets 4% more offensive zone starts than he’s accustomed to, and he is taking 6 individual shots per 60 minutes with Crosby at even strength. Add in the power-play time, and Hornqvist is a guy we can expect to fire multiple shots every single game he is with Crosby, and shots on net against Niemi are a good thing. The Penguins score 65% of the goals when these two are on the ice together, and with a good possession player like Daniel Winnik filling in for an injured Perron, I don’t expect that number to go down. This makes Hornqvist and company a safe play on +/- sites.
Craig Smith – Smith played very few minutes last game, but that does not scare me against Calgary, as he has been promoted to the top line. Smith plays with Ribeiro and Forsberg tonight, and this trio combine to take 67 shot attempts per 60 minutes, and Smith gets the benefit of playing on the top power-play unit on this line. I mentioned that Calgary is a horrible possession team this year, and it’s even worst without Giordano. Look for Smith to continue to shoot at a high rate (233 shots on net), and to likely see a boost considering his linemates. With 23 goals, Smith is closing in on a 25-goal season, and I expect him to get one step closer to that mark tonight.
Kris Versteeg – Versteeg is a really nice option tonight, as he gives you exposure to Toews and Hossa, without having to pay up and make your lineup revolve around the Hawks. Versteeg has a 56% Corsi For with Toews, and I expect Winnipeg to throw all their weapons at stopping these guys. Winnipeg has a great defensive team, but Toews has proven to be matchup proof, no matter who he is facing. Paying up for him might not be ideal, but taking a punt like Versteeg can allow you to roster some great players on your team, while getting exposure to his twice-as-expensive linemates.
Other Options – Blake Wheeler, Filip Forsberg, Henrik Zetterberg, Mike Hoffman
Defensemen
As always, I am looking for defensemen getting power-play minutes, while not having to overpay. Predicting even strength production is too random for defensemen, so we have to look up the power-play minutes.
Aaron Ekblad – Ekblad gets a great power-play matchup against the Ottawa Senators. Looking back at the month of March, Ekblad has been seeing all the top PP minutes, and Ottawa is giving up 125 shot attempts per 60 minutes (29th in the NHL). This is an absolute must-win game for Florida, and they’ll need their power play to click to have a chance.
Derrick Pouliot – Pouliot gets a chance to fill in for an injured Kris Letang on the top unit. The good news is that Pouliot is half the price, and the Penguins are full strength on there otherwise: Pouliot, Malkin, Kunitz, Crosby, and Hornqvist. Paying for the guy at 30% of the cost as the rest of his power-play linemates makes perfect sense, and Pouliot is a top-round pick for his offensive ability. This is a pretty easy pick for me.
Other Options – Nick Leddy, Duncan Keith, Shea Weber, Patrick Weircioch, Torey Krug