NHL Daily Plays: Sunday, March 8th
We have a typically unusual slate of games from the perspective of start times, and that means that we have a long day of hockey to enjoy. The only thing that makes a long day of hockey better is picking players who score goals throughout the day. I hope this article will help you do so. Using analytics, I hope to break down this slate for you.
Goaltenders
Today’s focus on goaltenders will be to look at the opponent’s biggest weakness and predict why I think the win will come for these goalies. More analysis will be provided on why the opponent is likely to lose this game, as opposed to why the goalie is a good goalie in general.
Devan Dubnyk – There is no way he can sustain this, as he is playing off the charts right now, but he has always been a pretty good goalie, with the exception of one down season. Last game against Carolina, the Hurricanes had an eye-popping 36 scoring chances at even strength, and dominated the possession time. Dubnyk stood on his head and made 36 saves and stole a win. This amount of scoring chances allowed is out of Minnesota’s character, and Dubnyk has shown that he can be reliable even when his team doesn’t play their usual stingy defense. Dubnyk has won 18 of his 23 starts with Minnesota, and posted a .940 sv percentage. Since Minnesota acquired Dubnyk, they have only allowed 23 scoring chances per 60 minutes (SCA60) at even strength, and Colorado has only been getting 22 SCF60 in that time frame. Take away Nathan Mackinnon, and Colorado’s lines go into flux. Add in the fact that Colorado is on a back to back, going on the road to face the hottest team in hockey, and that does not bode well for this team, which have been thoroughly dominated by the Wild in all of their meetings this season. Based on all that, I expect Dubnyk to get the win, and he is a very safe option tonight.
Craig Anderson – This Calgary Flames hockey team sure knows how to defy the numbers. Even without Mark Giordano, they have found a way to win in Boston and Detroit in their last two. Let’s take a look at how big of an impact has on the Calgary Flames. For starters, he has 5.5% Corsi relative, meaning that the Flames generate 5% more of the shots when he is on the ice, as opposed to when he is off the ice. He has a 7.1% Scoring Chances relative, meaning that the Flames get 7% more of the scoring chances when he’s on the ice as opposed to when he’s off. With Giordano’s seemingly average 48% Corsi for, we can see that the Flames are a horrible possession team when he is off the ice. He is their best defenseman, best penalty killer, and best player, and despite winning the first two games without him, it cannot keep up. The Senators come in playing great hockey, and even if Calgary generates some chances, Anderson has a .927 save % this year in his action. The run of “The Hamburglar” was nice, but Craig Anderson is the guy in Ottawa. Since firing Paul Maclean, the Senators are a 52% Corsi, and 53% SCF team, and they have been playing better hockey on both ends of the rink. Factor in the fact that Calgary is a much worse possession team without Giordano, Craig Anderson’s .927 save %, and the fact that Ottawa is playing great hockey in the three months since firing Paul Maclean, and we should see Ottawa dominate the possession time, and have their goalie make key saves when called upon. This should be enough for Anderson to get the win.
Other Options – Cam Ward
Forwards
Jason Pominville – Jason Pominville is a great player, who is having a pretty mediocre season, if you look at the raw results. However, he has a few things working in his favour tonight. When skating with Zach Parise and Mikhael Granlund, he has a 7% in his Corsifor60, and this is due to their style of play. Parise and Granlund are both guys who love to open up the play in transition, and generate chances off the rush. This style of play can lead to some goals against as well, but we’ve seen Devan Dubnyk playing so well, that it makes Pominville really safe on +/- sites as well. When Dubnyk is in net, and Pominville is on the ice, Minnesota scores 71% of the goals. This is largely because Pominville’s line dominates possession, and tonight should be no different, as they face this Colorado team that is second-worst in the NHL in puck possession, on a back to back, and without their best player. Pominville’s best offensive production has come all year long with Parise and Granlund, and I expect that success to continue tonight
Mike Hoffman – Hoffman is an absolute stud, and is putting up incredible per60 stats. If you read my argument for Craig Anderson, you’ll see that I expect Ottawa to dominate this hockey game. The Senators score 4 goals per 60 minutes when Hoffman is on the ice. Hoffman’s minutes are low usually, but he is playing huge minutes in his last four games that he actually finished. He left one game this week, but he has surpassed 17 minutes in each of his last three complete games. Considering this guy scores 1.6 goals on his own per 60 minutes, and factor in the weak matchup, he has about as much upside as anyone tonight. He shoots the puck a lot, and is always creating chances when he is on. If you don’t believe how good Mike Hoffman is, take a look at this hero chart from two weeks ago, via ownthepuck. This is measuring Mike Hoffman’s production per 60 minutes. Everything except for minutes per game were indicating that Hoffman was an elite scorer, and now that the minutes are there, I cannot wait to roster this guy every single game until his price increases.
Kris Versteeg – Versteeg is a guy who has shown all year that he can provide consistent scoring from a 2nd and 3rd-line role. He was an autoplay for a while when he was playing with Kane and Sharp, and now he is seeing his best opportunity to produce since that time. Playing with Jonathan Toews and Marian Hossa is an absolute treat. Versteeg’s sample with these guys is very small, but I like the prospects of anyone skating with these two. Patrick Sharp put up incredible numbers with these guys, as well as Brandon Saad. Both Saad and Sharp have a 7% worse Corsi For percentage when skating without Toews and Hossa, and I expect Versteeg to see a similar bump that these guys are losing. Saad and Sharp played a ton of minutes with these two, and it’s no surprise that their numbers have slowed down without them. Look for Versteeg to be a tremendous value play for a while, and be sure to pair him with Toews or Hossa if you are using him.
Other Options – Zach Parise, Patrick Sharp, Wayne Simmonds
Defense
Predicting defensive scoring at even strength is rather difficult. My philosophy on picking defensemen is to simply take the ones that see power-play time and hope for the best. A defenseman’s job is to play defense at even strength, and a power play is their only real chance to focus on offense exclusively. Here are a few guys who get power-play time and have a nice amount of offensive talent.
Duncan Keith – Keith will quarterback Chicago’s top power-play unit tonight, and he has had a very good season offensively. The Rangers penalty kill is not bad, but with Cam Talbot in net, and only 4 games, I love the idea of using Keith and getting some exposure to the best offense in the league. With Keith as the lone defenseman on the point, I expect him to generate some shots and hopefully he can record a point as well.
Ryan Suter – Suter is having a down year offensively, but it’s not for lack of opportunity. He is playing top power-play minutes, and has recorded exactly 2 shots per game. His price has come down and he is playing huge even strength minutes. With Colorado having no real offensive threat line, Suter may find himself able to record a few more shot attempts with the extra zone time that Minnesota should be able to maintain. Suter has recorded 3 points in four games against Colorado, and based on his powerplay usage, and consistent 2 shots per night, he can possibly build on that tonight.
Other Options Kris Russell (DK only), Patrick Wiercioch, Erik Karlsson, Dan Boyle