NHL DFS Slate Summary: Monday, February 19th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NHL DFS Slate Summary. In this article, we’ll concentrate on the key elements of DFS success while delivering analysis on the upcoming slate of NHL games for DraftKings and FanDuel. We’ll discuss today’s NHL DFS player projections, player correlations and NHL stacking, NHL starting lineups, differentiation tactics using NHL projected ownership, and recommendations on ways to create lineup diversity if entering multiple lineups using LineupHQ.
NHL DFS Picks: Slate Summary for Monday, February 19th
Today’s Games
Slate Overview
The NHL is generally pretty clueless on how to market their product, including their superstars. I’ll give them credit for Monday’s idea though, which is having games on throughout the day. In a surprising move, it appears they are actually trying to get people to watch and capitalizing on the NBA All-Star Break. I tried to get this out as early as possible while also having as much news/information. If there are any major updates, I’ll post them in the Discord channel.
The contests on DraftKings are…interesting. They are big as far as total prize pools, but the $111 contest today pays 33% to 1st place ($50,000). I’ll be throwing my usual single-entry lineup in there and am fine with it, but just know what you’re getting into by entering. The $15 isn’t quite as drastic, with 25% going to 1st place, but it is still pretty top-heavy. There’s also the $1,450 Q out there for any of you big dogs.
Let’s talk slate strategy that is unique to something like today versus a normal slate. We don’t often discuss late swap in hockey, or at least as much as it’s prioritized in other sports. Today, utilizing the late swap is even more important than usual due to the spread out nature of the games. Paying attention to not only how your players perform in the early games but also to how the chalk performed will be essential in making swaps for the later games. I’ll go over some specifics below.
Unlike Saturday night when the Maple Leafs were far and away the best projected team (for which they delivered, with 9 goals), there isn’t a single team that separates themselves today. Instead, there are a multitude of teams in excellent spots. The Oilers, Lightning, Sabres, Golden Knights, Maple Leafs, and Hurricanes all have implied team totals of 3.7+ goals. Due to that, I don’t expect ownership to concentrate too heavily on any one team or player.
Let’s break it all down.
Top Skaters
Auston Matthews
DraftKings $10,000
Here’s the write-up from Saturday: He’s coming off a hat trick in his last game, which he’s a threat to have again tonight. He’ll also be at home where he’s even more lethal and should have favorable matchups throughout. His goalscoring prop is a ridiculous -150 at most sportsbooks, which is as high as we’ll see this year. Well, the threat was realized, and he did indeed have a 2nd straight hat trick.
The matchup isn’t quite as good today, but it’s not one to stay away from either. The Blues are fully capable of laying an egg and allowing goals in bunches. His ownership won’t be nearly as high as what we saw on Saturday, due to both the matchup and bevy of other viable options at the top end. For reference, Connor McDavid and Matthews have a nearly identical point projection from us, but McDavid is expected to be 50% higher owned. That feels like leverage worth capitalizing on.