NHL DFS Slate Summary: Monday, November 20th

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NHL DFS Slate Summary. In this article, we’ll concentrate on the key elements of DFS success while delivering analysis on the upcoming slate of NHL games for DraftKings and FanDuel. We’ll discuss today’s NHL DFS player projections, player correlations and NHL stacking, NHL starting lineups, differentiation tactics using NHL projected ownership, and recommendations on ways to create lineup diversity if entering multiple lineups using LineupHQ.

NHL DFS Picks: Slate Summary for Monday, November 20th

Today’s Games

Slate Overview

Thanksgiving has thrown the schedule off for this week, making Monday and Friday the biggest slates of the week as opposed to the usual Tuesday and Thursday. After a quick look at the schedule, two things stand out. One, there are some excellent games. Oiler-Panthers, Bruins-Lightning, and Rangers-Stars are all battles between teams with Stanley Cup aspirations. Second, the Canucks are playing the Sharks… I think we can all remember what happened when these two teams played just a few weeks ago. It was the first of back-to-back games where the Sharks gave up 10 goals. Everyone had success, but none more than Quinn Hughes five points. In fairness to the Sharks, they have been much better since then by winning three of their six games. Still, with that fresh in everyone’s memories, the Canucks will be by far the highest-owned team of the night. There isn’t a ton to monitor from an injury news perspective, so hopefully we’ll be able to set our lineups and relax (and potentially enjoy an excellent MNF game too!). Let’s take a look at the slate.

Top Skaters

I’ll state the obvious here. The Canucks are in a great spot from a raw projections standpoint. Their implied team total of 4.4 is not on the highest on the slate, but one of the highest of the season. I’m not going to feature them here just because I want to give some alternatives to those not looking to play into their ridiculously high ownership.

Mikko Rantanen
DraftKings $8,700

Every night when the Avalanche are playing, the game locks and I take a look at the ownership numbers. Almost every slate it shows the same trend: Nathan MacKinnon is a solid 5% to 10% higher owned than Mikko Rantanen. This is despite being $1k+ more expensive the entire season, sometimes significantly more. But is that warranted? Rantanen is actually outscoring MacKinnon both in fantasy points per game and actual points (23 vs. 20). I do think eventually MacKinnon will overtake Rantanen in points in the long-term, but in the short-term, I’m fine giving him a slight priority over MacKinnon, especially if salary is a major concern. Rantanen has owned tonight’s opponent, the Predators, throughout his career. In his last four games against Nashville, he has eight points and is averaging over five shots on goal per game. Due to the Canucks expensive pieces, I don’t think his ownership will be too crazy.

Carter Verhaeghe
DraftKings $6,100

For most of the young season, Verhaeghe was on the second line but saw first-line level minutes at even-strength. The missing piece was power play time, which Evan Rodrigues received. Eventually, the time wised up and supplanted Rodrigues with Verhaeghe on the man advantage. He also got promoted to the first line at even strength and has been skating with Barkov and Reinhart. Barkov will miss tonight’s game, meaning even more of the scoring load will go to Verhaeghe. His DK price should be much closer to Reinhart’s given their similar roles, but Reinhart is still listed at $1700 more expensive. The Oilers are really bad defensively. I mean really, really bad. Florida has an implied team total of 3.7 goals, and if they get even close to it, there’s a good chance Verhaeghe finds the scoresheet at least once.

Other Options: Elias Pettersson, Quinn Hughes, Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar, David Pastrnak, Nikita Kucherov (GPPs),

Top Values

Valeri Nichushkin
DraftKings $5,300

Valeri Nichushkin price has slowly creeped up, but is still nowhere near where it should be given his role. He’s taken over for Arturri Lehkonen and is essentially a one-for-one swap, yet Lehkonen’s price before he got hurt was $6500. Yes, I’m breaking my usual rule of trying not to exceed $5k for the values, but I think Nichushkin is just that good of a value. He has seven points in his last six games, which is good, but more importantly, five of those seven points are goals. It’s obvious, but that’s a big deal as he’s essentially picking up two assists every time he scores, which he’s doing at a much higher rate than Lehkonen before him. Nashville isn’t terrible, but they aren’t a matchup to avoid either. They rank as a middle-of-the-road team in most defensive/goaltending categories.

Noah Hanifin
DraftKings $3,800

I whiffed on both value plays on Saturday night about as hard as I have all season. In both instances, I took the lines/projections at face value and made assumptions about what the coaches might do. One of those was Adam Ruzicka on the “first line” and “first power play” where he ended up playing a season-low seven minutes. Yes, seven. One player on the Flames who does seem to have a degree of certainty is Noah Hanifin. His role on the power play did seem to stick, which should be a valuable one. He’s not elite in any one area, but is a decent bet to end up with a statline like this: 1 assist, 3 shots on goal, 2 blocked shots for around 12 DK points. Throw in the potential for picking up an extra assist and a block and the potential for 20 point upside is there.

Other Options: Anton Lundell, Adam Larsson, Tomas Hertl, Jordan Eberle

Top Goalie Projections

Connor Ingram
DraftKings $7,100

After the first period and a half in the Stars-Avalanche the other night, I was looking like a genius and the Avs were looking dead in the water. Then they exploded for six goals in 27 minutes to finish the game. I don’t think I’d do it differently as the volume was indeed there, he just had his worst game of the season. One of the things I didn’t expect coming into the year was for Connor Ingram to look so much better than Karel Vejmelka in net. Ingram is 6-1-0 with a 2.75 GAA and .918 SV% compared to 2-6-2, 3.18 GAA, and .901 SV% for “Vej”. Tonight’s matchup against the Kings is a tough one, but I think it’ll only keep his ownership down and also gives him a tremendous amount of upside. If he manages to pick up the win (+130 underdog), he could be the highest-scoring goalie on the slate.

Other Options: Thatcher Demko, Phillip Grubauer, Linus Ullmark (GPPs)

Top Stack Projections

Team Proj Own% DKPt/$ FDPt$
BOS1 13.55 TBD 1.85 1.97
BOSPP1 12.08 TBD 1.84 1.91
FLAPP1 11.99 TBD 1.86 2.06
TB1 12.76 TBD 1.77 1.83
TBPP1 12.00 TBD 1.81 1.86
EDM2 13.22 TBD 1.90 1.97
EDMPP1 13.67 TBD 1.90 2.04
COL1 16.47 TBD 1.65 2.20
COLPP1 14.25 TBD 2.00 2.11
VANPP1 13.50 TBD 1.89 2.06

Projected Ownership is posted daily after morning skate.

Top Stacks

Florida 1/PP1
As you can probably tell, I’m higher on Florida than most tonight. I think the Oilers continue to receive the benefit of the doubt when they have shown what they are at this point, which is an offensively gifted team with some serious defensive flaws both in personnel and scheme. The loss of Aleksander Barkov hurts the total output potential, but it does reduce the average cost quite a bit with Anton Lundell slotting in. If you don’t need to save salary, you can ignore him and just pay up for the three power play forwards in Matthew Tkachuk, Carter Verhaeghe, and Sam Reinhart. They are expensive, but all possess multi-point and 5+ SOG bonus upside. It’s a bit of a bummer that DK has priced the powerplay defensemen, Brandon Montour and Oliver Ekman-Larsson up a bit at $5k+, but you can include in a power play if you don’t need to penny pinch at D.

Seattle 1/PP1 (Value)
I mentioned a few weeks ago that Matty Beniers was one of the best young talents that no one outside of the hardcore hockey world knew about. Well, Beniers has posted goals in back-to-back-to-back games after a three-game pointless streak. Stacking is a bit tricky because his even-strength linemates are Jared McCann and Jordan Eberle while his PP linemates are Jaden Schwartz, Kailer Yamamoto, and Eeli Tolvanen. For the price, I have the most interest in Eberle, then Schwartz, then Tolvanen, then McCann, and finally Yamamoto. Vince Dunn joins the power play party as the defenseman quarterbacking the unit and is a solid inclusion as well. The matchup against the Flames is a positive one as their defense/goaltending have been lousy to start the year.

Other Options: VAN1/2/PP1, COL1/PP1, EDM1/2/PP1, BOS1 (GPPs), SJ1/PP1 (Value)

Image Credit: Getty Images

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NHL DFS Slate Summary. In this article, we’ll concentrate on the key elements of DFS success while delivering analysis on the upcoming slate of NHL games for DraftKings and FanDuel. We’ll discuss today’s NHL DFS player projections, player correlations and NHL stacking, NHL starting lineups, differentiation tactics using NHL projected ownership, and recommendations on ways to create lineup diversity if entering multiple lineups using LineupHQ.

NHL DFS Picks: Slate Summary for Monday, November 20th

Today’s Games

Slate Overview

Thanksgiving has thrown the schedule off for this week, making Monday and Friday the biggest slates of the week as opposed to the usual Tuesday and Thursday. After a quick look at the schedule, two things stand out. One, there are some excellent games. Oiler-Panthers, Bruins-Lightning, and Rangers-Stars are all battles between teams with Stanley Cup aspirations. Second, the Canucks are playing the Sharks… I think we can all remember what happened when these two teams played just a few weeks ago. It was the first of back-to-back games where the Sharks gave up 10 goals. Everyone had success, but none more than Quinn Hughes five points. In fairness to the Sharks, they have been much better since then by winning three of their six games. Still, with that fresh in everyone’s memories, the Canucks will be by far the highest owned team of the night. There isn’t a ton to monitor from an injury news perspective, so hopefully we’ll be able to set our lineups and relax (and potentially enjoy an excellent MNF game too!). Let’s take a look at the slate.

Top Skaters

I’ll state the obvious here. The Canucks are in a great spot from a raw projections standpoint. Their implied team total of 4.4 is not on the highest on the slate, but one of the highest of the season. I’m not going to feature them here just because I want to give some alternatives to those not looking to play into their ridiculously high ownership.

Mikko Rantanen
DraftKings $8,700

Every night when the Avalanche are playing, the game locks and I take a look at the ownership numbers. Almost every slate it shows the same trend: Nathan MacKinnon is a solid 5% to 10% higher owned than Mikko Rantanen. This is despite being $1k+ more expensive the entire season, sometimes significantly more. But is that warranted? Rantanen is actually outscoring MacKinnon both in fantasy points per game and actual points (23 vs. 20). I do think eventually MacKinnon will overtake Rantanen in points in the long-term, but in the short-term, I’m fine giving him a slight priority over MacKinnon, especially if salary is a major concern. Rantanen has owned tonight’s opponent, the Predators, throughout his career. In his last four games against Nashville, he has eight points and is averaging over five shots on goal per game. Due to the Canucks expensive pieces, I don’t think his ownership will be too crazy.

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About the Author

  • Taylor Ezell (ezellmt)

  • Taylor Ezell (fantasy alias ezellmt) has been playing fantasy sports for over a decade and made the transition to daily fantasy near the end of 2013. Once an editor on RotoGrinders, Ezell has transitioned into a top DFS Grinder in the industry. His biggest accomplishment is winning the 2018 DraftKings Fantasy Hockey World Championship for $100k. He was a 2015 DraftKings World Baseball Championship Finalist and the former runner-up at the DraftKings $1M College Football Championship. Outside of fantasy sports, Taylor is an accountant (IT Auditor) living in Nashville. You can follow Taylor on Twitter @taylorezell.

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