NHL Grind Down: Thursday, January 11th

by Ben (benwell311) Last Updated 2018-01-11 18:46:19 Premium Content Part of the product Core4

The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System (Offense):
Green : Friendly matchup at 5v5 and/or on the power play; multiple lines worth stacking
Yellow : Line specific matchup at 5v5 and/or friendly power play matchup
Orange : Stacking is best left for GPPs, secondary scoring units and/or power play in tough matchup
Red : Difficult 5v5 and/or power play matchup, stacking not advisable

Stackability Rating System (Goalies):
Green : Goalie has a plus draw and is playable in all formats
Yellow : There is risk at 5v5 or the penalty kill; iffy for cash games and better for GPPs
Orange : Realistic risk at 5v5 and the penalty kill; not advisable in cash games but viable in GPPs
Red : Elevated risk in all situations and not a recommend crease to chase

Team Ranking Key
CF = Corsi For = shot attempts generated
CA = Corsi Allowed = shot attempts allowed
xGF = expected goals scored
xGA = expected goals allowed
Numbers in parentheses denote the league ranking for the particular metric.

Carolina Hurricanes at Washington Capitals

Carolina Hurricanes					Washington Capitals
			Scott Darling					Braden Holtby
			Record					Record
			19-15-8					27-13-3
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.76	3.05	17.04	79.00	Team Stats	3.07	2.79	19.85	79.59

Hurricanes Offensive Outlook
5v5 (adj): 63.27 CF/60 (4) | 53.83 CA/60 (29) | 2.45 xGF/60 (7) | 2.14 xGA/60 (22)

The Hurricanes may be struggling on the road, but the offense remains strong (if inconsistent) and they have a favorable matchup on tap tonight. Carolina has been driving play and generating shot attempts extremely well, and the quality has been there to boot. Washington’s defense has been struggling mightily and they are now nearly the worst team with respect to expected goals allowed. High-danger shot attempts have been a major issue.

Washington doesn’t always hard match their lines against the opposition, so the top line of Jordan Staal, Sebastian Aho, and Teuvo Teravainen should see a good deal of the Backstrom line but not be chained to them. It helps too that the Kuznetsov line doesn’t have Oshie on it anymore as they are much more loose defensively without him. Similarly the Backstrom line hasn’t been as stout without Tom Wilson. To sum it up, this sets up as a nice spot for the Staal line to continue to be successful.

The two main matchup concerns are diluted a bit as key defensive forwards Tom Wilson and T.J. Oshie play on the second and third lines, respectively. As long as this stays as practiced, the Canes’ second (Derek Ryan, Jeff Skinner, Elias Lindholm) and third (Victor Rask, Brock McGinn, Justin Williams) each have something to worry about but not fret over, if that makes sense.

Williams remains a strong driver of play in his advanced age, and though the finishing may lag a bit, Carolina’s third line has dominated 5v5 play in about 90 minutes together. That includes controlling shot attempts overall (56.62% CF%, 63.13 CF/60) and of the high-danger variety (59.69%, 13.18). Given that the Caps have had issues suppressing shot attempts, this line could do some damage.

Skinner’s line has been a bit better defensively but they haven’t posted as strong of underlying shot generation numbers. Some of that is offset by Skinner individually posting high shot rates, but it’s something to consider if considering a line stack of the middle six.

Hurricanes Special Teams Outlook
Another reason to like the Canes tonight is the fact they draw a favorable power play matchup. In addition to going shorthanded at a fair rate (3.4 times per game), Washington has been above the line in terms of allowing shot attempts, scoring chances, and high-danger shot attempts while killing penalties.

Hurricanes Goaltending Outlook
What do we do with Carolina’s goaltending? On one hand, both Cam Ward and Scott Darling have struggled, Ward especially of late (and Darling, well, all year). On the other, Washington’s overall offensive metrics are not impressive whereas Carolina’s defense has played solid hockey this year. The Hurricanes should control play at 5v5 based on their dominant 5v5 CF%, but the team hasn’t been as strong on the road and they have also been inconsistent despite the impressive numbers. Darling is the definition of a boom/bust play, and the odds of a bust seem higher than those of going boom.

Capitals Offensive Outlook
5v5 (adj): 55.73 CF/60 (21) | 59.45 CA/60 (12) | 2.12 xGF/60 (23) | 2.47 xGA/60 (2)

It hasn’t been a great season overall for the Capitals. At 5v5, their play hasn’t been up to par with that of a hopeful contender. Their CF% lags behind a struggling defense and an unproductive overall offense. They still retain some high end finishers, so goals can still come in buckets, but the dominating efforts haven’t been there.
Tonight’s matchup isn’t ideal for this style of play, as at least on paper the Canes should be able to control play. The top line of Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, and Devante Smith-Pelly will likely see a fair amount of ice time against the Staal line for Carolina. Backstrom is back to his solid two-way center ways. In about an hour together at 5v5, this line (with DSP) has generated a good deal of shot attempts, though the quality is a bit on the lower side. Tonight they may struggle to dial up attempts when against the Staal line, but they should still see a few high-danger attempts. With a struggling netminder shot volume will be key.

Evgeny Kuznetsov may have lost T.J. Oshie from his wing, but he should get back Jakub Vrana tonight after Vrana was a healthy scratch. Tom Wilson has stuck around in the top six. For all the knocks on him, it’s time to admit that Wilson is a very strong defensive forward. His WOWY’s with both the Backstrom and now Kuznetsov’s line trend favorably for defense. Offensively he is not quite as strong, though the second line hasn’t really played together enough to analyze (their 18.64 HDCF/60 is over just 34 minutes). In any event, look for this line to settle into a lower quality, medium event line that won’t be destroyed at 5v5 with Wilson in tow.

Oshie is working on the third line with Lars Eller and Andre Burakovsky. A Burakovsky/Oshie combination sure is interesting, but Eller’s weakness at center a tough matchup with a good Carolina third line mute the optimism.

Capitals Special Teams Outlook
Carolina remains the best team in the league at staying out of the penalty box, so don’t look for the Washington power play to get much ice time. Through 42 games the Canes are going shorthanded a meager 2.4 times per game on average. Carolina’s penalty killers haven’t been overly impressive, so it’s good for them they don’t get on the ice much. Similarly Washington’s power play hasn’t created a high number of shot attempts or quality chances.

Capitals Goaltending Outlook
Braden Holtby comes at a high cost, and he’s often failed to provide a return on investment due to the defense in front of him. Tonight he will likely face a high number of shots, but the Canes can create quality chances quite well and the Caps haven’t been stopping teams from doing so. Though Carolina’s offense can be a unit to target with an inability to put the puck in the net despite the high CF/60, Holtby is in a tricky spot tonight.

Hurricanes Elite Plays: Jordan Staal, Sebastian Aho, Jeff Skinner, Teuvo Teravainen
Hurricanes Secondary Plays: Justin Williams, Derek Ryan, Justin Faulk
Stackability: Yellow / Green
Goaltending: Orange / Orange

Capitals Elite Plays: Alex Ovechkin, John Carlson
Capitals Secondary Plays: Nicklas Backstrom, Evgeny Kuznetsov, Jakub Vrana, T.J. Oshie
Stackability: Yellow / Orange
Goaltending: Orange / Yellow