NHL Grind Down: Wednesday, October 4th

by Ben (benwell311) Last Updated 2017-10-04 17:52:47 Premium Content Part of the product SimLabs+

The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Welcome to the NHL, grinder. The 2016-17 puck drop is finally here and we have some nice welcome back contests on tap. We’ll take an in-depth look at all four games on the slate in just a minute, but first a few housekeeping notes. You won’t hurt my feelings by skipping down to the first game.

Hi, I’m Ben Benwell. You may remember me from such NHL DFS articles as NHL Grind Down Thursday, April 6 and Christmas Ape Wins the Milly Maker.

I’ll be writing plenty of these articles over the course of the year, and I want to be upfront about a few things.

First, this is a living and breathing document. Is something not being covered that you want to see? Is something that’s being covered not relevant? Shoot me a message here or on Twitter and let’s discuss. We want this to be insightful, entertaining, and your first point of research on any given night. My goal is to make the Grind Down complementary to the tools, articles, and analysis within the NHL Premium package.

I’ve stolen a few points of order from the MLB Grind Down with regards to the color system, which I hope will make lineup decisions easier. Don’t tell Noto I ripped him off please. I also added some goalie specific guidance as well as a readability break for teams, offenses, and special teams.

Second, I love hockey and yes, I do watch the game. When you pop open my RG profile you’ll see a curious lack of high volume, high dollar entry fees. DFS isn’t my primary source of income and I’m naturally risk averse, so I’m not a high roller.

That said, I put 100% of my effort in to my research, which I am sharing with you below. I like numbers and analytics. I play what I like and discuss, and while my personal plays will change on a given night due to any number of factors, I stand with my work. I won’t sand bag, “pump and dump” (as if I have the clout), or intentionally mislead.

I am open to constructive criticism and discussion. Let’s have some fun this year. Now I know you’re wondering when this idiot will drop the puck, so let’s get to it.

Stackability Rating System (Offense):

Green: Friendly matchup at 5v5 and/or on the power play; multiple lines worth stacking
Yellow: Line specific matchup at 5v5 and/or friendly power play matchup
Orange: Stacking is best left for GPPs, secondary scoring units and/or power play in tough matchup
Red: Difficult 5v5 and/or power play matchup, stacking not advisable

Stackability Rating System (Goalies):

Green: Goalie has a plus draw and is playable in all formats
Yellow: There is risk at 5v5 or the penalty kill; iffy for cash games and better for GPPs
Orange: Realistic risk at 5v5 and the penalty kill; not advisable in cash games but viable in GPPs
Red: Elevated risk in all situations and not a recommend crease to chase

Toronto Maple Leafs at Winnipeg Jets

Toronto Maple Leafs					Winnipeg Jets
			Record					Record
			40-26-15					40-35-7
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	3.09	2.79	24.20%	82.30%	Team Stats	3.01	3.14	18.20%	77.50%

Maple Leafs Offensive Outlook

2016-17 5v5 (adj): 59.86 CF/60 | 57.65 CA/60 | 2.56 xGF/60 | 2.38 xGA/60

With relatively little churn of the roster for the Leafs, we should have a pretty good idea as to where the Toronto offense is going to come from this year. With a year of seasoning under their belt, dynamic young forwards Auston Matthews, William Nylander, and Mitch Marner will look to take a step forward. And considering they are starting halfway up the ladder, the proverbial step could be monstrous.

Nylander and Matthews seem likely to stick together again this year. Last season, Nylander flashed plenty of playmaking ability while Matthews was a prolific scorer. This duo figures to soak up defensive attention, which means the Jets will likely stick Jacob Trouba on them all night. Trouba can be considered a shut down defenseman, but this is a high upside line. They were amazing last season and they have one of the highest expected goals-for among lines. Matthews and Nylander are a premier duo, and along with Zach Hyman, they will be finding the scoresheet plenty of times this year. Trouba is a decent concern, and Matthews/Nylander figure to carry a fair amount of ownership from DFSers. There are some fade considerations in play, and it’s not as if the Leafs don’t have other options, of course.

The oft-sheltered line of Tyler Bozak, James van Reimsdyk, and Mitch Marner were productive last year and settle in to a nice little role for DFS purposes. Matthews draws attention of opposing top defenders while Nazem Kadri tends to play the top opposing lines. Seeing as how the line combined for an impressive (and evenly dispersed) 178 points last year, this isn’t a dice-roll secondary scoring GPP play. Nazem Kadri will get new Leaf Patrick Marleau on his wing this year, but don’t get too blinded by the shiny new toy syndrome. Marleau is in his twilight and as Kadri often saw the tougher matchup draws, the line has a lower floor. Kadri had some regression due to him last year after shooting just 6.5% in 2015-16, but he’s unlikely to match last season’s 32 goals.

As far as the 5v5 matchup goes, Toronto gets a middle of the road draw in the Jets. Winnipeg ranked near the middle of the road in all of 5v5 shot attempts, scoring chances, and high-danger shot attempts allowed per 60. They didn’t have drastic home splits. It’s not a shy away matchup, especially thanks to Toronto’s special teams outlook (more on that in a minute). Besides Trouba and Dustin Byfuglien, the Jets defensive group isn’t overly impressive (and there are some weaknesses, ie Dmitry Kulikov). Matthews’ line should draw an arguably tough matchup at 5v5 warranting fade considerations as noted above, but they are far from red lighted. Toronto is a high-event team and there will be plenty of scoring chances to go around here.

Maple Leafs Special Teams Outlook
Death, taxes, and Winnipeg’s leaky penalty kill. It’s fair to assume that these are your father’s Jets in terms of special teams. (Well, not like the Teemu Jets, but you get it.) Long in to the future, great scribes of the time will philosophize about Winnipeg’s discipline problems. Anyway, let’s take a look back at the where Jets have ranked in terms of times short handed over the past three years, starting with last year: Third, fourth, first.

Ahh yeah, that’s the good stuff for DFS. How did they fair on the kill, you ask? Starting with last year again: fifth worst, sixth worst, 18th worst. So even when they’ve been better, they’ve been bad.

It just so happens that Leafs had the second best power play in the league last year and they are returning all the key personnel and system work. A power play stack is viable here, and Mike Babcock must have had us DFSers in mind when he assigned his groupings. Tyler Bozak, Mitch Marner and James van Reimsdyk stay together and are joined by Nazem Kadri up front and Nikita Zaitsev on the blue line. Auston Matthews and William Nylander also played together last year, keeping the mini-stack viable in all situations. Patrick Marleau figures to join that group with Connor Brown and Jake Gardiner on the blue line.

Any way you slice it, this is a favorable matchup for Toronto’s power play and supports the decision of a Leaf line stack. Winnipeg didn’t see much, if any, turnover behind the bench, so any PK improvements are likely to be realized over the long term and not in this matchup.

Maple Leafs Goaltending Outlook
Frederick Andersen was… how to put this… very bad early last year. He rebounded nicely and he starts off this season with a reasonable salary. He’s an intriguing GPP play at his cost.

Last year, the Jets were middle of the road in shot attempts, scoring chances, and high-danger shot attempts for at 5v5 with an average power play. The problem, however, is Toronto’s defense. The Leafs have a questionable rearguard and with the game in Winnipeg the Leafs won’t have the last change. Toronto ranked near the bottom of the league in shot attempts and scoring chances allowed, and their numbers were poorly skewed on the road. Toronto also didn’t add any impact defensemen during the offseason.

Jets Offensive Outlook

2016-17 5v5 (adj): 59.86 CF/60 | 57.65 CA/60 | 2.2 xGF/60 | 2.12 xGA/60

If the preseason projections turn out correct and the Jets top line is Patrik Laine, Mark Scheifele, and Blake Wheeler, we have a high-upside line stack. This would be an explosive and well-rounded line. Wheeler has consistently been one of the best Corsi-For Rel forwards in the league, and Scheifele is coming off a point-per-game season in his age-23 season. Laine, of course, was an electric goal scorer last year, lighting the lamp 32 times in his age-18 season. With the game in Winnipeg, this line can scheme around Nazem Kadri. They will likely play out against Auston Matthews’ line, though a draw against the Bozak line would be better. Nevertheless, they’ll be playing a fast paced, high event game and the matchup is strong.

The consolidation of talent on the top line does hinder the viability of the second line some. Bryan Little will likely center Nikolaj Ehlers and Mathieu Perreault. This is a low floor, moderately low ceiling line, so while they are in play on a four game slate, they are far from a core play. They could very well see time against the Nazem Kadri line. Keep an eye on where Kyle Connor slots. If he gets a shot in the top six, he’s a better bet than say Perreault or Little. Ehlers would also see a boost if the lines shuffled up some; he played well with Scheifele and Laine last year. Winnipeg’s third line of (likely) Connor, Joel Armia and Adam Lowry has potential, but they are a nothing more than long shot lottery tickets in tournaments and can’t reasonably be stacked. A matchup draw against Toronto’s third line would be beneficial to this young trio’s outlook.

On defense, Dustin Byfuglien will still be the name to target. He’s a nice floor play as he’ll contribute across multiple categories, and he’s the blueliner of note on the top power play unit. We saw the Leafs struggle a bit against offensive defensemen last season, so he’s viable in all formats with a reasonable salary in what should be a high event game. Jacob Trouba came on down the stretch last year and became something of a floor play. He logs heavy minutes and gives exposure to the Winnipeg top six, making him a decent mid-priced option. Josh Morrissey is a name that we dialed up a few times last season, but with Jacob Trouba back, Morrissey gets pushed down the pecking order a bit and isn’t a great play.

Jets Special Teams Outlook
Toronto had a strong penalty kill rate last year (82.5%), but they did allow the fourth most shot attempts and third most scoring chances on the penalty kill. (They were good at limiting the number of high-danger shot attempts.) Look for the Jets power play skaters to get some shot attempts in this one, though there may be some frustration at the results. The Leafs were slightly above average in number of penalties taken.

Unlike with the Leafs, the Jets look like they’ll split their even strength lines up a bit on the power play. Nikolaj Ehlers and Bryan Little will stick together while Blake Wheeler and Patrik Laine do the same, so keep that in mind if going with pairs. Dustin Byfuglien is the defender to add to these groups. The second unit drops off some, with Mark Scheifele taking something of a hit. Kyle Connor makes another appearance, giving him one-off value play appeal. Jacob Trouba figures to play the blueline with Mathieu Perreault and Nicolas Petan joining the group. The first unit is the one to target here.

Jets Goaltending Outlook
Steve Mason and Connor Hellebuyck will protect the cage for the Jets this year. Hellebuyck figures to get the first crack, and coming off a tough year, he’ll likely have a quick hook. Both goalies are priced down but even on home ice, this is a difficult matchup. The Leafs have a ferocious offense and the special teams mismatch figures to haunt the Jets goaltender tonight.

Leafs Elite Plays: Mitch Marner, James van Reimsdyk, Auston Matthews, William Nylander
Leafs Secondary Plays: Tyler Bozak, Nazem Kadri, Nikita Zaitsev, Jake Gardiner
Stackability: Green
Goaltending: Orange

Jets Elite Plays: Blake Wheeler, Patrik Laine, Mark Scheifele, Dustin Byfuglien
Jets Secondary Plays: Nikolaj Ehlers, Bryan Little, Jacob Trouba, Kyle Connor (GPP)
Stackability: Yellow / Orange
Goaltending: Orange