NLCS Game 6 Preview: Dodgers vs. Braves Odds & Prediction

by Nick Galaida (nickgalaida) Last Updated 2021-10-23 19:26:05

Dodgers vs. Braves Odds

On Saturday evening, the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Atlanta Braves will battle in the National League Championship Series at Truist Park. For the second game in a row, Los Angeles will be looking to extend their season and Atlanta will be hoping to punch their ticket to the World Series. In Game 6, the Dodgers will send Walker Buehler to the hill. He will be opposed by Ian Anderson. Oddsmakers are expecting the Dodgers to even-up the series, pricing Los Angeles as -148 road favorites.

Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where bettors can find value at sportsbooks for Game 6 of the NLCS.

Los Angeles Dodgers (-172)

Buehler has put together four consecutive strong seasons for the Dodgers and has firmly entrenched himself as one of the best young starting pitchers in the league. In 33 starts this year, he posted a sensational 2.47 ERA, 3.08 xERA, and a 3.15 FIP. Across 84.2 innings on the road in 2021, Buehler owned a 2.86 FIP and a 0.98 WHIP. In three postseason starts this October, he has a 3.77 ERA with 12 strikeouts in 14.1 innings of work. Buehler will be pitching on short rest in Game 6, but he threw only 76 pitches in his last trip to the mound, so he should be able to deliver five strong frames in this contest if he is effective. Throwing on short rest against the San Francisco Giants in the division series, Buehler lasted 4.1 innings, allowing only one earned run. He should keep Los Angeles competitive for as long as he remains in this game.

The Los Angeles lineup features big names such as Mookie Betts, Corey Seager, Trea Turner, Justin Turner, Will Smith, A.J. Pollock, and Cody Bellinger. However, this group underperformed expectations by a wide margin this summer and were only slightly better than mediocre at the plate for the majority of the campaign. This inconsistency has carried over into the postseason. In 11 playoff games, Los Angeles has been shutout twice, scored three runs or less six times, but also has four games with six or more runs. Still, the Dodgers ranked seventh in OPS, eighth in ISO, second in walk rate, and 11th in strikeout percentage during the regular season against right-handed pitching. They are capable of doing damage this evening against Anderson, who they saw well at the plate earlier in the series.

The Dodgers had a much-needed day off in the schedule yesterday. On Thursday, Los Angeles used

Atlanta Braves (+126)

Anderson was incredible as a rookie during the COVID-shortened 2020 season. However, he regressed significantly as a sophomore—posting a 3.58 ERA, 4.30 xERA, and a 4.12 FIP in 24 starts in 2021. He ranked below league average in xwOBA, xERA, xBA, xSLG, barrel-rate, strikeout and walk percentage, and chase rate. Yet, Anderson was at his best when he was pitching at home, delivering a 3.66 FIP anda 1.13 WHIP across 61.1 innings of work. After returning from a late-season injury, Anderson had a 3.62 ERA and a 5.67 FIP in his final six trips to the mound in the regular season. He held the Milwaukee Brewers scoreless over five innings in his only start of the division series, but struggled mightily against the Dodgers in Game 2 of the NLCS, allowing two earned runs and three walks in only three innings of work. Anderson is likely to struggle once again this evening.

Against right-handed pitching this year, Atlanta ranked sixth in OPS, fourth in ISO, 13th in walk rate, and 23rd in strikeout percentage. Yet, their high strikeout numbers make this a volatile offense to predict from a betting perspective.. This is especially true in matchups against pitchers, such as Buehler, who generate a lot of swings-and-misses. The Braves lineup has plenty of talent, but they are going to need to practice good situational hitting in this one, rather than simply trying to hit the ball out of the yard, if they want to sustain enough rallies to finish off this series.

Entering play tonight, this is the most rested that A.J. Minter, Will Smith, Tyler Matzek, and Luke Jackson have been during this entire series. None of Manager Brian Snitker’s favorite relief optio. Atlanta’s bullpen has been used excessively this postseason, but they should have some gas left in the tank to limit scoring opportunities in the latter frames in Game 6.

Game 6 Pick

Buehler and Anderson have both experienced their struggles this October, but both are capable starting pitchers, who should limit the damage against them in this one. If either Buehler or Andreson show signs of extreme vulnerability, expect both managers to be aggressive with their bullpen usage in this one. Game 6 is likely to be a relatively low-scoring affair between two rested pitching staffs against two inconsistent offenses. Take the under.

PICK: Under 8.5 (-110)

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