2020 FedEx Cup Playoffs: The Northern Trust PGA Golf Betting Picks
With the 2019-20 PGA Tour regular season officially behind us, the top 125 golfers in the FedEx Cup standings are set to compete in the three-week FedEx Cup Playoffs. The next three tournaments aren’t majors, but the FedEx Cup champion will walk away $15 million richer.
Rory McIlroy won the FedEx Cup Championship in 2019, joining Tiger Woods as the only two-time winners since the inception of the playoffs in 2007. Other FedEx Cup Champions include Justin Rose, Justin Thomas, Rory McIlroy and Jordan Spieth.
The FedEx Cup Playoffs feature a progressive cut that shortens from 125 to 70 after the first week and from 70 to 30 for the final tournament.
Next week is the BMW Championship hosted at Olympia Fields Country Club, followed by the Tour Championship at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta, Georgia to conclude the season.
For now we’ll break down this week’s course, golf odds and picks for the 2020 Northern Trust at TPC Boston.
Northern Trust Course Preview: TPC Boston
Playing host to a FedEx Cup playoff event during even-numbered years, golfers return to TPC Boston after playing at Liberty National a year ago.
Originally designed by Arnold Palmer before being entirely overhauled in 2007, TPC Boston is a 7,300-yard par 71 with bentgrass greens. Its 64 bunkers inconveniently placed throughout the course will try to test some of the world’s best this week, as golf fans get to watch and bet on another major-like field just two weeks removed from the PGA Championship.
Though golfers might find trouble in a bunker here or there, TPC Boston still yields its fair share of birdies. Bryson DeChambeau won the Dell Technologies Championship at TPC Boston in 2018 shooting 18-under. As Dechambeau’s come-from-behind victory showed—he used 13 birdies over the weekend to make up a seven-stroke deficit— the course keeps golfers in it with its scoring opportunities, something to keep in mind when looking at live golf betting odds after the Northern Trust begins.
TPC Boston’s bentgrass greens are fast and undulating, making things difficult for those shaky with the short stick. As usual, we want good ball strikers, and I’m giving a bump to long hitters this week and for both betting and PGA DFS purposes.
The Northern Trust Golf Betting Picks
Collin Morikawa +2500 (FOX Bet) – Collin Morikawa has been very kind to us since turning professional in 2019. He cashed 33-1 tickets at the Workday Charity Open earlier this year and most recently won the PGA Championship when we picked him at 35-1. Let’s go back to the well. Though Morikawa led the field in putting at TPC Harding, the 23-year-old often struggles on the greens. And these surfaces in particular could cool off his putter. Morikawa doesn’t have the distance some of his young peers have but he’s arguably the best ball-striker on Tour, capable of winning no matter the week, no matter the course. We can bet Morikawa +2500 at FOX Bet while he’s as short as +2000 elsewhere.
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Jason Day +2500 (FOX Bet) – Is Jason Day back? It appears so, as the former world No. 1 has finished 4th, 6th, 4th, and 7th in his last four tournaments. At the PGA Championship, Day led the field in strokes-gained approach (+7.9). During that span, he gained at least six strokes tee-to-green in each event. Day putts consistently well, too, so these tricky greens shouldn’t trip him up more than anyone else. Similar to Morikawa, we’re getting +2500 at FOX Bet even though he’s +2000 at other online sportsbooks. Day hasn’t won on Tour in more than two years, with his last victory in May of 2018. Now is as good of a time as any to win again.
Tommy Fleetwood +6000 (FOX Bet) – Fleetwood was near the top of the leaderboard at the PGA Championship before falling in Round 4. He had another tough Sunday with a 74 at last week’s Wyndham Championship. Fleetwood hasn’t looked his best since returning to the U.S. in late July for this final stretch of the PGA Tour season, but we know Fleetwood can triumph against the toughest competition. Long story short, regardless of Fleetwood’s form, I’m seldom passing up 60-1 odds on the Englishman.
Matthew Wolff +6600 (DraftKings Sportsbook)- The talkative Matthew Wolff reflected on his T4 at the PGA Championship, saying it was the best ball-striking of his life. Stats from TPC Harding confirm Wolff’s post-tournament report. The 21-year-old rose to the occasion in only his first major championship appearance, gaining 7.3 strokes approach and a tournament-leading 14.2 strokes tee-to-green. His superb ball-striking helped him finish in the top 5 despite losing two strokes putting. I was lucky to have a sliver of a share of Wolff in my DFS lineups at the time. He’ll remain in my golf lineups this week but I’ll be betting on him this time, too.
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Cameron Champ +8000 (PointsBet) – Another young bomber who excelled at TPC Harding, I think Champ might be turning the corner. For the 2020 season, he is 15th in ball-striking and 2nd in strokes gained off-the-tee. Champ already has two wins on Tour in his short career. I want to bet on him before oddsmakers make any drastic adjustments, which we could see as soon as next week if his stellar play travels with him to the east coast this week at TPC Boston.
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Northern Trust Round 2 Betting Picks
Two of our golf picks are off to hot starts, as Matthew Wolff (-6) sits one shot back from the lead and Tommy Fleetwood (-5) is two shots back. Not only will we add a live outright play but we’ll also make picks in a couple of the Round 2 matchups.
Dustin Johnson (-4) +1800 – Johnson nearly made it on my Northern Trust betting card before the tournament started but I opted for Jason Day instead. Luckily we can still get similar odds on Dustin Johnson ahead of the second round at the Northern Trust. After a blistering first nine holes that included three birdies and an eagle, Johnson failed to capitalize on the easier front-nine stretch (Johnson tee’d off on hole no. 10 Thursday), but he still sits only three strokes back from the lead. Johnson shot a 4-under 67 despite losing -2.3 strokes putting. His approach game is in good shape, now he just needs to straighten out his drives and have a few putts fall. Risking 1 unit to win 18.
[Bet on these odds at FanDuel Sportsbook]
Matthew Wolff +110 vs. Adam Scott – Both golfers played well in Round 1 but I want to take rhe plus-money odds on Wolff. Wolff went three-under on TPC Boston’s three par 5s in Round 1, setting up eagle opportunities on each of the holes. He’s one of the best drivers of the ball in the world, and he should be able to use his off-the-tee game to his advantage again in Round 2. Risking 1 unit to win 1.1.
Tommy Fleetwood -120 vs. Jason Kokrak – I’d normally want to stay away from a golfer who led the field in putting the way Fleetwood did on Thursday. The Englishman gained+ 4.66 strokes on the green, while losing -2.07 approach. However, I think we’re getting a good price on Fleetwood in this matchup just as I thought there was some value on his outright odds pre-tournament. Let’s hope Fleetwood doesn’t start Friday where he left off on Thursday, which was with a bogey and a double-bogey on his final two holes. Risking 1.2 units to win 1.
The Northern Trust Golf Betting Card
| Golfer | Odds | Risk | To Win | Sportsbook |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Collin Morikawa | +2500 | 1u | 25u | FoxBet |
| Jason Day | +2500 | 1u | 25u | FoxBet |
| Tommy Fleetwood | +6000 | 1u | 60u | FoxBet |
| Matthew Wolff | +6600 | 1u | 66u | DraftKings |
| Cameron Champ | +8000 | 1u | 80u | PointsBet |
2019-20 PGA Tour Season: +22.15 Units
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