Denver Nuggets vs. Portland Trail Blazers Preview: Game 3 Odds, Matchups, & Picks
The Trail Blazers started the NBA Playoffs with a win, but Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets bounced back in Game 2. The Nuggets evened the series with a 128-109 victory while allowing a red-hot Damian Lillard to score 42 points. Now the Western Conference series moves to Portland for what will be a pivotal Game 3 Thursday night. How many points will Lillard have to score to defend home court? NBA odds suggest the Trail Blazers have the upper hand, but one key matchup might make the underdog the best bet.
NBA Picks: Blazers vs. Nuggets Thursday Update
While betting action was coming in on both sides Wednesday night and early Thursday morning, things have shifted as we’ve inched closer to tip-off. Here’s how things are playing out at sportsbooks just hours before game time:
- GM 3 Moneyline: 69% of moneyline bets are taking the plus-money odds with Denver, per Scores And Odds. The moneyline is down to Nuggets +134 after a price peak of +144 earlier this afternoon.
- GM 3 Spread: 60% of the betting handle is now on Portland, which has resulted in oddsmakers shortening the spread to Blazers -3.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook, DraftKings Sportsbook, William Hill, and PointsBet. For prospective Nuggets bettors searching for the best odds, you can still wager on Denver +4 at BetMGM.
- GM 3 Over/Under: An overwhelming majority of cash is on the Over, but oddsmakers have hardly flinched. As of 4 PM ET, the consensus total is 227. If you’re looking to bet the Under, your best number is at BetMGM (227.5). Conversely, if you’re on the Over, then your best bet is at FanDuel Sportsbook, where the total currently rests at 226.5.
Continue reading for our Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers Game 3 preview, breaking down NBA odds, picks, predictions and our favorite promo for Thursday night!
Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers Game 3 Odds
Sportsbooks like the Trail Blazers’ odds versus the Nuggets in Game 3 Thursday night. They opened as 3.5-point favorites, -157 on the moneyline, Tuesday morning. Since then, the odds have moved in the Blazers’ favor despite a slight majority of bets giving the Nuggets preferential treatment. The Trail Blazers are now -4 across the sports betting industry, including two of our favorite online sportsbooks in Colorado, BetMGM and William Hill.
So where will these NBA odds close when the clock strikes 10:30 ET and Game 3 tips off? While it’s still early, I think it’s safe to say this betting line isn’t going to make any major moves. Neither of the Blazers nor the Nuggets superstars are questionable, and sportsbooks are seeing enough two-way action on this game that DEN-POR odds should stay steady.
Nuggets vs. Blazers Preview
The more important question for you, presumably an NBA bettor, is who will cover the Nuggets vs. Blazers Game 3 spread?
The Nuggets have a size advantage, which they put on display last go-around. Even during their loss, the Nuggets had their way down low — it was shooting that was the problem.
The Nuggets outscored the Blazers 52-38 in the paint in Game 1. They lost because they were only 11-for-37 (30.6%) from behind the arc — yikes. In Game 2, Denver continued their domination near the basket, scoring 54 points to Portland’s 32. They made only one more three-pointer (12), but they were much more efficient with nine fewer attempts. Their 11-for-28 performance from the three-point line improved their three-point shooting percentage to 42.9%, five points better than their regular-season average of 37.7%.
The Trail Blazers will have home-court advantage for the first time in the series, but it may not be as much of an advantage as we’ve seen in other NBA Playoff games. Portland was the last time to allow fans in their arena, and, for better or worse, they’re only allowing 8,000 inside the Moda Center for the Blazers’ playoff run. With that said, I’m mainly focusing on the personnel matchup.
Lillard and CJ McCollum are, at times, an unstoppable backcourt. They’ve proven so time and time again; however, the Blazers are simply no match for Denver’s mountainous presence in the paint. Because of that, I will take the points and bet on the Nuggets +4. Lillard will get his, to be sure, but the Nuggets game plan is a reliable one, as they showed in the first games of the series. If they can continue to eclipse 50 points in the paint, all they need to do is shoot their season average from three-point range to keep up with Portland’s two-headed backcourt monster.
NBA PICK: Nuggets +4 at BetMGM
Nuggets-Blazers Game 3 Picks & Predictions
Sloan Piva: Let’s finish with the last game of the night, and a game nobody really knows how to predict or project. Portland won Game 1 in Denver by 16. Denver came back to win Game 2 by 14. The Blazers had a 20-16 record at Moda Center this season. The Nuggets went 22-14 in away games (61.1 winning , 0.6 better than Portland’s winning % on the road).
These are two very sophisticated offenses, and two well-coached teams. There’s also a bevy of streaky shooters on both lineups. I’m leaning toward Portland at home, but I’m not nearly confident enough to bet against MVP favorite Nikola Jokic. If anything, I’d go with the Blazers halftime moneyline, as they typically go into the break with a lead at home.
I’m a tad more interested in the halftime and end-game overs of 115.5 and 227.5. But then again, I’ll probably fall asleep by the end of the third quarter and finish it on DVR tomorrow, so I might just sit this one out betting-wise. Hey, I’m old and have a toddler—6 a.m. comes quick! Some people have to do Dame Time the day after the night before. Ya’ win some, ya’ lose some.
HALFTIME PREDICTION: Blazers 61-56
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Blazers 115-113
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For DFS players transitioning to sports betting, player prop markets are a great place to start. As of Wednesday evening, Lillard’s points prop is a whopping Over/Under of 32.5, slight shaded toward the Over (-125). McCollum comes in with an O/U of 22.5 and the line for Jusuf Nurkik is 14.5 points.
On the bench sit the Denver Nuggets, who are expected to be led by none other than the Joker himself. Jokic’s points prop, O/U 31.5, is only slightly lower than Lillard’s, while Michael Porter is currently 23.5.
For in-depth player prop analysis and more sports betting picks, check out our friends at ScoresAndOdds. They’re covering the sports betting scene every day with their best bets for the NBA Playoffs and more!
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