2023 Open Championship Golf Betting Tips: Royal Liverpool Course Preview

by Joe Cistaro (joeycis) Last Updated 2024-06-18 12:27:48

This week, Joe Cistaro breaks down golf betting tips for the 2023 Open Championship. Use the PrizePicks promo code GRINDERS to claim a $100 deposit bonus on PGA DFS Pick’em entries this week!

The stage is set. After an incredible close to a Scottish Open victory, Rory McIlroy is the favorite to win The Open Championship this week. The site? Royal Liverpool. In 2014, Rory walloped the course and hoisted the Claret Jug in what most expected to be the next in several major championship victories. Since, Rory has filled his trophy case with several close calls at majors, including last year’s heart-wrenching top five at St. Andrews. With his current form and all the momentum, will Rory lift the Claret Jug again? Let’s start with betting odds and the field before looking over Royal Liverpool.

2023 Open Championship at BetMGM Sportsbook

At the time of this writing – July 18th – you can find these odds at BetMGM Sportsbook. The below list features all golfers priced at 50/1 or better.

Here are the recent winners of The Open Championship:

• 2022 – Cam Smith (-20)
• 2021 – Collin Morikawa (-15)
• 2020 – Canceled COVID-19
• 2019 – Shane Lowry (-15)
• 2018 – Francesco Molinari (-8)
• 2017 – Jordan Spieth (-12)
• 2016 – Henrik Stenson (-20)
• 2015 – Zach Johnson (-15)
• 2014 – Rory McIlory (-17)

Keep in mind, the aforementioned winners of The Open Championship mostly won at different courses. The last time the event was hosted at Royal Liverpool in 2014, Rory McIlroy prevailed. After a close call last year at St. Andrews and with excellent recent form, we cannot be shocked that Rory McIlroy is this week’s betting favorite.

Scottie Scheffler comes in at number two on quite the tear. Scheffler’s T2G stats over his last 10 tournaments have been Tiger-adjacent. His putting numbers? Dreadful. Scheffler would boast several wins if he could muster just an average performance with his putter. Will he turn it around this week?

LIV is back this week. Defending champion Cam Smith returns a year removed from chasing Rory McIlroy down to hoist the Claret Jug. After the incredible victory, Smith took his talents to LIV but remains a threat every time he enters a major championship. Smith’s game plays well in terrible conditions, and he should be considered if weather reports look gloomy.

155 golfers will tee it up this week, with the best 70 and ties playing through the weekend. Let’s take a look at Royal Liverpool, or familiarly, Hoylake.

2023 Open Championship Betting Preview

• Course: Royal Liverpool (Hoylake)
• Date: July 20 – 23
• Par: 71
• Yardage: 7,383
• Greens: Bentgrass

Links golf. For those of us watching in the United States, nothing beats waking up with a cup of coffee a bit earlier to watch links golf. The open layout, the pot bunkers, and…the weather. Royal Liverpool has seen some changes since being played in 2014. Lengthened, of course, and changed to a Par 71 instead of 72 will surely make the course a bit tougher this time around.

With no water on the links course, the greatest defense will be a bounty of well-placed pot bunkers that are penal in the truest sense of the word. Finding a pot bunker essentially means a stroke penalty. Players will not have the luxury of bombing and gauging because there is no gauging out of these traps.

The course is wide open, lined with fescue grass from tee to green before seeing a mix of bentgrass on the putting surface. The 3rd hole (Par 4) has internal OB lining the entire right side, not far from the fairway and green, which will likely be talked about at great length on golf broadcasts.

In typical fashion, the course is very gettable if players can avoid pot bunkers and the gaping bunkers that surround the green complexes. The greens are not exceptionally large but will be very firm, meaning precision on approach (as always) will be paramount. The greatest defense for the course will be the weather, as is the case for every Open Championship. If Mother Nature is an angry participant, players that have the wrong draw will find extremely tough sledding. That said, if the winds are relatively dormant, this course can be taken apart, as we saw at St. Andrews last year.

Three of the Par 3s will be at or above 200 yards, with the fourth a very short 136 yards on the official scorecard. That seems like an easy wedge in, but we know that the elements can change the landscape of that hole very quickly. The Par 5s are all pretty long, and given wind direction, could be vital scoring opportunities.

With regard to statistics, we are looking at recent form with approach play and ball-striking. This week, we want to consider around-the-green play as well as scrambling, as players will need to fight to save pars often with so many hazardous bunkers in play. While these are not normal PGA Tour bunkers, sand saves will be factored in as well as putting. We will look to see who plays well in very windy conditions and keep our eyes on the weather report, which will be very fluid over the next couple of days.

Let’s highlight a few golfers to consider.

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Golfers To Watch This Week

Unless mentioned otherwise, all strokes gained statistics will be referenced over the player’s previous 36 rounds on the PGA Tour.

Cam Smith +1600

We already spoke in detail about Rory McIlroy throughout the piece, so there is no reason to highlight him again. This feels like a stars-aligning week for McIlroy, but we know that winning a golf tournament is extremely challenging.

Smith makes plenty of sense whenever scrambling, short game, and putting are going to take such a prominent role in a golf tournament. Smith is a wizard on and around the greens and can get white hot with the flatstick. Similar to Augusta, when driving accuracy isn’t a major concern, we love Smith even more. Post-drive, Smith is one of the better players on Earth. If he can keep the ball in play this week and find the right landing areas, Smith has to be considered one of the most likely winners.

Viktor Hovland +2000

We remain big Viktor Hovland backers this season. He continues to pile up good result after good result, as his form continues to impress. His signature victory at the Memorial feels like the start of something special.

Hovland continues to factor in at major championships, which should surprise nobody. Every layout for these big events demands an incredible ball-striking profile. Hovland has that in spades. Ranked 6th in this field in SG: T2G, Hovland will tear this course apart if weather conditions are dormant. While he never made a real aggressive move on Sunday at St. Andrews, Hovland remained in the mix going into the back nine. He has been a contender at each major this year and seems to provide plenty of value given the weight of the three men at the top of the board.

Xander Schauffele +2500

With nary a leak in his game, Xander Schauffele adds a bit more value in what seems to be an early start to the mid-range on our odds board.

Xander is that create-a-player on sports video games, where you continue to allocate points to every available skill. With only a bit of shakiness around the green and not the same length as some of the other top players, Xander is nails with every facet of his golf game. A breakthrough win seemingly on the horizon, Xander has a victory on his shelf in Scotland last season to display his ability to handle the conditions overseas.

Xander’s game translates to any type of layout. Will this be the week where his consistency pays off? 25/1 doesn’t feel like a terrible price.

Justin Rose +5000

Speaking of a few leaks, Justin Rose has a similar type of game as Xander Schauffele with, let’s say, significantly more experience. Rose’s CV at The Open Championship includes a 2nd place finish in 2018, as well as several other strong performances. The desire to win this championship for Rose is quite obvious, as winning this event in front of his countrymen would be a signature achievement in an incredible career.

Rose has a couple of missed cuts in a row but has otherwise played exceptionally well this season. With plenty of experience in these conditions, Rose brings the game around the greens to conquer the tricky conditions of an Open Championship layout.

Follow me on Twitter at @JoeCistaro to follow along with any additions, matchups, or top finishers I add to my outright betting card. Good luck with all of your wagers this week and thanks for reading.

Image Credit: Getty Images