UFC on ABC 3 Preview: Ortega vs. Rodriguez Odds & Predictions
MMA betting analyst Liam Heslin previews UFC on ABC 3 Ortega vs. Rodriguez odds for today — Saturday, July 16, 2022. Make sure to use our PrizePicks promo code for a $100 bonus on UFC picks tonight!
UFC on ABC Preview: Ortega vs. Rodriguez
The UFC returns to the great state of New York (which conveniently does have legal sports betting) with another elite featherweight matchup worthy of its prime time billing on ABC. Top-five contenders collide as friends and former training partners are made to battle on the ultimate proving ground for a shot at the coveted world championship held by the newly recognized pound-for-pound best fighter in the sport, Alexander “The Great” Volkanovski.
In my breakdown of the Max Holloway trilogy bout, I explained that I felt a dynamic striker like Josh Emmett or Yair Rodriguez posed a greater singular threat to the title than the extremely talented but less potent finisher in Max “Blessed” Holloway because of their ability to change the trajectory of a fight in an instant with their power. Perhaps that was unfair to Brian Ortega, as he proved in his bout with Volkanovski that his power and submission prowess was something that was difficult to contend with even at the highest levels of the sport.
Brian Ortega
What makes this matchup so intriguing is the anticipated parity. Ortega is a jiu jitsu ace, a well schooled blackbelt with high level submissions in grappling and mixed martial arts competition, but he chooses to fight on the feet and pursue the fight at any cost. If you harken back through his rise to UFC contention, it was far from smooth sailing. Ortega demonstrated a gameness and a toughness that has long been related to fighters of Mexican heritage. He would often drop the early rounds of his fights and absorb hellacious damage before securing an inspirational comeback submission in the third round.
Yair Rodriguez
Yair Rodriguez is a fighter born and raised in Chihuahua, Mexico, and his gameness and toughness is of the same ilk as Ortega. Yair has grown up in front of a UFC audience, emerging as a prospect by winning The Ultimate Fighter: Latin America at 22 years of age. He has now spent time training in the United States at Jackson Wink Academy, the BMF Ranch with Cowboy Cerrone, and in his native Mexico with his original fight team for this camp in particular. Throughout his UFC tenure, we have seen stumbles and flashes of brilliance, as he took two rounds of a consensus top five all time featherweight in Max Holloway in his most recent outing on two of the judges score cards.
What’s at stake
The brilliance of the UFC style of matchmaking is revealed in this fight; this is a fight that makes fans eager with anticipation, yet it features two fighters coming off a decisive loss. In order for them to regain momentum in the division and pursue their aim of getting a UFC title opportunity, this fight is a must win for both gentlemen.
For Ortega, he has already had two cracks at UFC championship gold, losing one-sided unanimous decisions to former champion Max Holloway and current champion and living legend Alexander Volkanovski. This is a fight he needs to prove he is still at the top of the contendership queue. As for Yair Rodriguez, he has come close in his most recent crack against the elite, but he has thus far failed to break through at the elite level; his chance to do so is this weekend in a main event against the number two ranked fighter in the division coming off a class let down spot; a loss in a UFC title fight. However, Ortega in the past bucked this trend once, producing his best form to date against the Korean Zombie in his first fight post-Holloway.
Ortega vs. Rodriguez Odds Analysis
Ortega vs. Rodriguez odds opened for this fight -150 on Brian Ortega and +130 on Yair Rodriguez, and the betting odds at online sportsbooks have been shifting towards Ortega since. His current market average sits at -173 (63.4%) with the average comeback on Rodriguez sitting at +145 (40.8%).
In addition to heavy action coming in on the money line, we have seen steady action coming in on the Ortega by SUB prop, which opened at +470 (17.5%) and has been bet all the way down to a market average of +207 (32.6%). This is an interesting move to me because Ortega has secured three of his UFC wins by KO/TKO and one (a five round main event) via unanimous decision (vs. Korean Zombie), and Yair Rodriguez has never been submitted in professional MMA. That being said, I recognize that Ortega is a lethal submission grappler and likely the best grappler Yair has ever faced.
In terms of past performance, Brian Ortega has been an extremely solid UFC favorite, currently sitting at 4-0 with a 63.81% ROI and a 100% finishing rate. However, Brian Ortega has closed as a betting underdog in 6 of his UFC bouts compared to only 3 times for Yair. Overall, Ortega has been historically undervalued, going 8-2 (80%) in the UFC at an average odds of +105 (48.8%) for a +31% win rate vs. expectation. However, he has also only closed at or above this price range 3 times in 10 UFC appearances so it is a somewhat small sample in this odds range.
For Yair Rodriguez, he has produced a 7-2 (78% win) UFC record. He is 1-2 as a UFC underdog with his losses to Frankie Edgar as a young upstart and Max Holloway in his most recent bout. Despite being 1-2 as an underdog for a slightly negative ROI, he has been a profitable betting commodity going 6-0 as a favorite for a 57.7% ROI. He too has exceeded his wins vs. expectations, but not to the same strong degree. At a 78% win rate and an average odds of -117 (53.9%) he is outperforming public expectation by 24.1%.
UFC Prediction and Pick
I think that Brian Ortega’s championship trajectory will be halted by Yair Rodriguez. We see a lot of slipping and ducking from Ortega defensively in his fights and I think the dangerous and well versed kicking arsenal of Yair Rodriguez can pay dividends for him in this fight. Both men are extremely dangerous and either man is live for the finish, but I favor Rodriguez to win minutes spent at distance and I think he has the potential to knock out the durable Brian Ortega.
- PREDICTION: Yair Rodriguez KO5/DEC
- BEST BET: Yair Rodriguez Moneyline
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