Primetime Parlay: Packers vs. Bills Same Game Parlay Picks
ScoresAndOdds’ ParlayIQ tool utilizes thousands of simulations of RotoGrinders’ NFL Statistical projections to construct profitable same game parlays across sports betting sites. We will examine stats, roster news, trends, player props and betting odds across sportsbooks to pick the most profitable combination of outcomes for primetime NFL matchups. Today, we build a Sunday Night Football same game parlay for the Packers vs Bills.
Happy Sunday! By the time you read this article, you will be knee-deep in a full Sunday of NFL action. To cap off the action-packed, Halloween Eve, the Bills welcome the Green Bay Packers. Buffalo appears to be the best team in the NFL while the Packers are coming off of really bad back-to-back losses. The Packers need to rebound but traveling to a jam-packed Buffalo stadium seems like a tough spot to start. While Aaron Rodgers looks to finally find something, we look to build a same-game parlay ticket on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Packers vs. Bills Same Game Parlay — SNF
The Buffalo Bills are 10.5-point home favorites at home against the Packers. Per SAO, throughout the week, the distribution of betting slips on the spread is about 50/50 while 73% of the money is on the Green Bay Packers.
The game total rests at 46.5 with a -105 price tag on the under on FanDuel Sportsbook. Similarly, the tickets are about 50/50 on the over and under. However, 96% of the money is on the under for this game. Ironically, ParlayIQ and our simulations prefer the over with 54% of simulations exceeding this number.
As for injuries this evening, the Packers will be without Allen Lazard — Aaron Rodgers’ most reliable option. David Bakhtiari and Christian Watson are questionable. The sputtering Green Bay offense cannot afford either of those options also missing the game. Sammy Watkins was taken off the injury report and is ready to go.
The Bills come in very healthy. Tre’Davious White will not be able to make his return yet after suffering his ACL injury last season. Spencer Brown will miss the game at offensive tackle with Quessenberry filling in for the lineman. The Bills will be in full force against an injured, struggling Packers team. This game might get ugly in a hurry.
While I think I like the idea of playing the under, I don’t want to open up my parlay by going against the grain with ParlayIQ. Instead, I think we will focus on player props this evening.
GB-BUF Same Game Parlay Picks
Stefon Diggs Over 80.5 Receiving Yards
Of the 4,895 simulations produced by ParlayIQ, 56% of them produce a script where Stefon Diggs goes over this receiving prop. Diggs has returned to his 2020 form, producing in a really big way for the Bills. With four games over 100 receiving yards, there is no questioning the first look for Josh Allen.
The Packers struggle more against the run but with Stefon Diggs, I am not as concerned about an opposing defense. Diggs should see his typical double-digit targets with enough efficiency to easily clear this hurdle. RotoGrinders NFL Stat Projections have Diggs for better than 10 targets and 89 receiving yards.
We open with this leg which means we are likely already looking at a better price than what the simulations suggest.
Robert Tonyan Over 27.5 Receiving Yards
Well, someone is going to have to catch the football for the Packers. With Allen Lazard out, receivers will have to step up to account for the 7-8 targets normally thrown the veteran’s way.
With Aaron Rodgers, trust has always been a big issue. Rodgers normally needs to build this trust with his receivers and perpetually looks their way once he does. Tonyan has been with Rodgers for quite some time now and will likely feel like a very reliable target. The Bills’ defense is excellent — ranking fourth-best in the NFL in yards per play on defense. All offensive statistics will be hard to come by.
With such a difficult test, I will not be shocked when Aaron Rodgers looks a familiar way. Tonyan isn’t going to be running go routes but should see enough volume to exceed 30 yards. We add this as our first Packer leg. ParlayIQ is enamored with Robert Tonyan this evening as 66% of our simulations include this over.
AJ Dillon Over 25.5 Rushing Yards
Another consequence of Aaron Rodgers being without his main weapon and potentially his tackle would be the Packers leaning on the run game as long as they possibly can. Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon will likely be used in bulk until Buffalo opens up an enormous lead — if they open up an enormous lead.
If this game stays close for some strange reason, our other legs are fine and this leg only improved. The Packers would love any excuse to keep this game tight and keep the ball on the ground. Aaron Rodgers is not interested in throwing a high volume of passes to Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson.
I think this leg is pretty safe even up against an extremely stingy defense. Dillon only has one game where he didn’t exceed this total and that was last week against a very strong Washington front in a negative game script. Look for the Packers to attempt to keep Josh Allen off the field. We take the over.
Aaron Jones Over 30.5 Receiving Yards
We close with a third Green Bay leg. With no Allen Lazard, Aaron Jones saw 10 targets in a negative game script against the Commanders. Jones converted for 53 receiving yards on nine catches.
I spoke about trust throughout the last two sections and we can file Aaron Jones under the same theme. Jones could be the most trusted player in the Green Bay offense while also being the most explosive. Jones will be a safety valve for Aaron Rodgers while also splitting out for volume as a receiver. Jones can convert this over in any script but would only be helped if the Bills opened up a big lead early.
The Packers will have to keep passing in the aforementioned scenario and will ultimately have to abandon the run. While AJ Dillon is also a capable receiver, Aaron Jones has proven repeatedly that he is the most explosive player on the Green Bay Packers.
Packers-Bills SGP Odds
- Stefon Diggs Over 80.5 Receiving Yards
- Robert Tonyan Over 27.5 Receiving Yards
- AJ Dillon Over 25.5 Rushing Yards
- Aaron Jones Over 30.5 Receiving Yards
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ParlayIQ offers the following price for our one-game parlay ticket:
Meanwhile, the simulations think our ticket is far more likely than the following offering from FanDuel Sportsbook:
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PLACE THIS BET ON Parlay Odds: +1227
Risk: 1/2 unit to win 6.13 units
Good luck with all of your bets and plays this evening. Share your parlays with me on Twitter and any other plays you are making for the game. First touchdown scorers? Touchdowns? DFS lineups? Thanks for reading.
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