Primetime Parlay: Packers vs. Raiders Same Game Parlay Picks

by Joe Cistaro (joeycis) Last Updated 2023-10-09 19:14:55

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Last year, ScoresAndOdds’ ParlayIQ tool helped us create a variety of fun same game parlay tickets throughout the NFL season. Through simulations, the tool examines the potential value various betting lines offer on sports betting sites. Along with the simulations, we will examine stats, roster news, trends, player props, and betting odds across sports betting sites to find the best price for our same game parlay ticket. For this article, we build a same game parlay for the Green Bay Packers versus the Las Vegas Raiders on Monday Night Football.

The fifth week of the NFL season concludes in Sin City, as the Las Vegas Raiders welcome the Green Bay Packers. Coming off losses, both teams need a win to stay attached to their respective divisions and conferences. Jordan Love leads the new-look Packers against a returning Jimmy Garoppolo, Davante Adams, and company. With points expected, the week should close with a bang. We will begin with odds, injuries, and stats before building what will hopefully be our first winning parlay of the season.

Packers vs. Raiders Same Game Parlay

At the time of this writing, FanDuel Sportsbook posts the Raiders as 1.5-point favorites. The implied game total is 45.5 points — moving up two points throughout the course of the week. Per ScoresAndOdds, 53% of money has been bet on the over.

The Packers opened as 1.5-point favorites, but the line has moved towards the Las Vegas side throughout the week. 66% of betting tickets were placed on the Packers but 51% of the handle went with the Raiders. This type of reverse-line movement gives me pause as I consider the Packers’ prospects this evening.

A potential reason for the line movement could be a robust injury report for the Packers. David Bakhtiari is out for the season, as he opted for surgery on his knee. Aaron Jones is questionable after only logging 20 offensive snaps against Detroit in Week 4. Christian Watson was limited at practice, but this could the the case for the dynamic wide receiver throughout the season due to his history of soft-tissue injuries. We expect Watson to see an uptick in opportunity this week. The Packers’ secondary could be in trouble, with Eric Stokes, Jaire Alexander, and Rudy Ford all questionable for tonight’s game. I would suggest taking a look at the final injury report this evening before finalizing any wagers.

Update as of 1:30 PM ET — Aaron Jones is reportedly unlikely to play tonight.

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For the Raiders, Davante Adams is questionable with a shoulder injury. Adams seems likely to play but missing both Thursday and Friday practices was alarming. Adams did practice on a limited basis on Saturday, but again, a final glance at the injury report will be crucial. Jimmy Garoppolo cleared concussion protocol and will be back for Monday night’s contest.

A night without Adams would be problematic for the Raiders, as Las Vegas is already ranked 30th in scoring this season and 23rd in yards per play. Garoppolo has not looked like a plug-and-play option for Las Vegas. Further, the Raiders continue to struggle on the ground after Josh Jacobs led the NFL in rushing last season. At only 3.0 yards per carry this season, teams continue to pressure Las Vegas. The Raiders rank in the bottom 10 in giving up sacks on offense.

The Packers are 10th in scoring offense but rank 25th in yards per play. The Packers could be due for some regression on the offensive side of the ball, as Jordan Love continues to produce touchdowns at a ridiculous rate relative to his passing yards. Las Vegas is not a stalwart defense though, and Love could get by with another outlier performance this week in the dome in Vegas.

Green Bay has also struggled on the ground this season. With Aaron Jones hurt, AJ Dillon has not appeared to be a bellcow solution for the Packers. The offense is very young with most of the receiving corps. Green Bay is clearly hoping the team grows together before they have to make decisions on long-term deals.

Will Love continue to impress as the heir to the throne of Aaron Rodgers? Will Jimmy G right the ship after a rough week with a rookie quarterback? Let’s look into what the simulations are offering us with respect to betting props this evening.

Same Game Parlay Picks for MNF

Dillon Over 45.5 Rushing Yards
Adams Over 78.5 Receiving Yards
Doubs Under 47.5 Receiving Yards

Update as of 1:30 PM ET — Aaron Jones is reportedly unlikely to play tonight.

AJ Dillon Over 45.5 Rushing Yards

AJ Dillon leads off for us at the running back position. With Aaron Jones unlikely to play, Dillon could be in for more carries than he might receive if the Packers were at full strength. As mentioned before, the Raiders are not a strong rushing defense. Will Dillon be able to convert such a reasonable rushing total?

ParlayIQ seems to think so. This over is found in 57% of simulations. In a game that features so many question marks, I don’t mind starting with a low hurdle to climb over.

Davante Adams Over 78.5 Receiving Yards

Obviously, we hope Davante Adams is suiting up. A matchup against the Packers, a team he willfully left, should inspire Adams to be at his best.

That said, are we really worried about that? Adams continues to play as a top-5 wide receiver in this league despite the team’s situation or the efficacy of the offense. Targeted frequently, Adams seems open constantly and is one of the better red zone threats in the league.

ParlayIQ features this over in more than 50% of simulations. With the Raiders in a neutral or negative game-script, we can expect to see Adams in the mix all night. Of course, check back for his status before booking this leg of the SGP.

Romeo Doubs Under 47.5 Receiving Yards

Finally, we go back to Romeo Doubs after a strong performance that burnt us last week. With the return of Christian Watson, I felt like Doubs was due to see a decrease in opportunities. As it turned out, Watson was kept in bubble wrap as he continued to get back to full health.

This week, it seems logical that Watson will receive more work than he did against the Lions. With 13 targets last week, Doubs saw most of Love’s passes. Some of those throws need to be shifted elsewhere. I expect that Watson will eat off Doubs’ plate enough to keep this prop under the total.