Green Bay Packers vs. Philadelphia Eagles Betting Odds, Prediction & Pick
Packers vs. Eagles Betting Preview
| Packers Odds | +2 |
| Eagles Odds | -2 |
| Over/Under | 49 |
| Date | Fri, Sep. 6 |
| Time | 8:15 p.m. |
| TV | Peacock |
The NFL returned in a big way last night, with a thrilling game between the Ravens and Chiefs to begin the 2024 regular season. Tonight, the Green Bay Packers and Philadelphia Eagles have the unenviable task of trying to top an early Game of the Year candidate.
Jordan Love and the Packers won 6 of their final 8 regular season games to earn an unlikely playoff berth in 2023, and then they went into Jerry World in the wild card round, where they trounced the Cowboys 48-32. They are hoping to take the next step this fall with an extremely young core group of players. Jalen Hurts and the Eagles lost 6 of their final 7 games last year and are hoping that this evening’s contest can be the first step toward making amends for that disappointing finish.
Ahead of kickoff in this matchup, oddsmakers have priced the Eagles as 2-point favorites on the spread. The total for this contest is set at over/under 49 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Green Bay Packers Preview
What to expect from Jordan Love
From Week 1 to Week 10 last year, Jordan Love ranked 15th in EPA/play and 20th in success rate among 31 quarterbacks (min. 200 dropbacks). Green Bay used pre-snap motion on 48.5% of plays through the first 9 weeks of last season. From that point on, their pre-snap motion% rose to 60.4%, which coincided with a significant jump in offensive production.
From Week 10 to the end of the regular season, Love ranked 3rd in EPA/play and 4th in success rate among 29 signal callers (min. 200 dropbacks). Overall, Green Bay’s offense jumped 16 spots in EPA/play and 14 spots in success rate from the first half of the season to the second half of the season.
On the surface, there are obvious concerns about a player who only had half of a good campaign, especially considering how soft the second half of their schedule was. That being said, 48 points on the road in Dallas during the wild card round is no fluke. Love showed tangible signs of growth late in the year and is still only 25 years old. He has a talented group of pass catchers around him, a good offensive line, and an intelligent coaching staff supporting him. It’s possible we haven’t seen the best of Love.
Jeff Hafley steps in as Green Bay’s new defensive coordinator
Green Bay managed to make a miracle run to the postseason last fall, but the defense didn’t do much to contribute to that effort. The Packers’ defense finished 2023 ranked 27th in DVOA, prompting the organization to hire Jeff Hafley as the team’s new defensive coordinator.
Hafley comes over from Boston College, where he was the team’s head coach for each of the last four seasons. Hafley is an aggressive defensive play caller with a bias towards single high and press coverage looks. He certainly has the personnel in the secondary unit to fit that philosophy, with Jaire Alexander and Xavier McKinney as two of his weapons.
Green Bay finished 9th in sacks per pass attempt last year, added talent in the secondary unit, and should have better coaching, putting players in a position to be successful. The linebacker corps is nothing to write home about, but this is a group that could take a significant step forward in 2024.
Philadelphia Eagles Preview
Kellen Moore takes over Philadelphia offense for 2024
Following a 10-1 start to last season, the Eagles collapsed down the stretch, losing 5 of their final 6 regular season contests. Then they went to Tampa Bay for a wild card matchup and were run off the field, losing 32-9. Needless to say, changes were needed.
One of the more notable changes is to the team’s coaching staff, with Kellen Moore taking over offensive coordinator responsibilities from Brian Johnson. Moore had far less talent in Los Angeles in 2023 than he will have in Philadelphia this year, but he still led the Chargers to a 16th place finish in offensive DVOA last fall. Prior to that, he helped the Cowboys’ offense finish 6th in EPA/play and 7th in success rate in 2022 with a healthy Dak Prescott on the field. Dallas also finished 4th in offensive DVOA in 2021 under Moore’s leadership.
Moore inherits a loaded roster in Philadelphia heading into 2024. He has a pair of 1,000+ yard wide receivers in addition to one of the league’s better running backs in Saquon Barkley. Even after the retirement of Jason Kelce, the offensive line remains top tier as well. Expect this group to play at a quick pace on Friday night, which is a hallmark of Moore’s uptempo philosophy.
Vic Fangio looking to fix Eagles’ defense
If there was one main driving force of Philadelphia’s late-season collapse in 2023, it was undeniably their defense. The Eagles finished last year ranked 29th in defensive DVOA. From Week 13 to Week 18, they ranked 31st in EPA/play and 30th in success rate. The good news is that their struggles weren’t completely talent related. Only three teams had more adjusted games lost due to injury on defense than Philadelphia last fall. It’s hard for any team to consistently get stops when they are missing multiple starters.
Unfortunately for the Eagles, this unit isn’t at full strength heading into Week 1 in 2024. Starting cornerback Isaiah Rodgers has been ruled out, as has linebacker Devin White. Rodgers’ absence is particularly notable. He worked primarily with Philadelphia’s first-team defense opposite Darius Slay during the summer. According to local media, Rodgers had a strong training camp after missing all of 2023 due to suspension. In 2022, Rodgers finished as the 5th best player at his position, per PFF grading, so this is a significant loss. His absence forces rookie Quinyon Mitchell and sophomore Kelee Ringo into bigger roles against a talented Green Bay receiving corps.
Packers vs. Eagles Prediction
Philadelphia isn’t as bad as their collapse in 2023 would suggest. Still, it might take a little bit for everything to click for this group this fall, with a new offensive coordinator, new defensive coordinator, and the retirement of Jason Kelce potentially leading to some early season inefficiencies. Making matters more complicated, the Eagles will be without starting cornerback Isaiah Rodgers in Week 1. His absence will force rookie Quinyon Mitchell and second-year player Kelee Ringo into bigger roles against a talented group of Green Bay pass catchers.
Jordan Love played like an elite quarterback during the latter portion of 2023 and helped Green Bay win 6 of their final 8 regular season games- without much help from their defense. He should have more assistance in 2024 with a new, more respected defensive coordinator in the building and the arrival of prized free agent Xavier McKinney.
Philadelphia might have the better record 17 weeks from now, but it appears as though the wrong team is favored on Friday night.
PICK: Packers Moneyline (+114, Bet365)
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