Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Packers vs. Lions Odds
| Packers Odds | +8 |
| Lions Odds | -8 |
| Over/Under | 47.5 |
| Date | Thu, Nov. 23 |
| Time | 12:30 p.m. |
| TV | FOX |
Happy Thanksgiving! NFL fans will be treated to an exciting three-game slate to celebrate the holiday, beginning with the Green Bay Packers against the Detroit Lions at 12:30 p.m. ET on FOX. Entering play, Detroit has won three consecutive games and holds sole possession of first place in the NFC North division. Green Bay, 4-6, needs a win on Thursday to remain competitive in the hunt for a Wild Card position.
Ahead of kickoff in this matchup, oddsmakers have priced the Lions as 8-point favorites on the spread. The total for this contest is set at over/under 47.5 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Green Bay Packers
What to expect from Jordan Love
Following a strong start to the campaign, Jordan Love has devolved into one of the least effective quarterbacks in the NFL. Since Week 3, Love ranks 18th among qualified signal callers in EPA/play, 22nd in success rate, and 27th in completion percentage. Even more alarming is the fact that Love has faced very minimal defensive pressure in that span, with each of his last six opponents finishing with a defensive pressure rate worse than the league average in the week that they played the Packers.
According to PFF, Love has a 12-to-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio from a clean pocket this year, and he is completing 64.3% of his pass attempts for 7.0 yards per attempt. When under pressure, Love has a 4-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio, and he is completing only 45.1% of his pass attempts for 6.5 yards per attempt. Most notably, Love sees his turnover-worthy-play rate jump from 1.4% in a clean pocket to 5.9% when under duress. Ball security could be an issue for him on Thursday if his offensive line is unable to give him adequate protection.
Injury-plagued Green Bay defense facing tough test on Thanksgiving
Cornerback Jaire Alexander, defensive lineman Kenny Clark, safety Rudy Ford, and cornerback Keisean Nixon were each listed as limited participants on Tuesday’s injury report for the Packers. If any of these players are surprisingly inactive on Thanksgiving, Green Bay’s defense will be forced to use depth options in expanded roles against a dangerous Detroit offense. The good news is that linebacker D’Vondre Campbell was upgraded to a full practice participant on Wednesday, giving him a good chance of suiting up on Thursday. Campbell has been one of the better run defenders in the NFL this season from the linebacker position.
Detroit Lions
Jonah Jackson ruled OUT for Detroit offensive line
This afternoon, Detroit will be without starting offensive linemen Jonah Jackson and Halapoulivaati Vaitai. From Week 1 to Week 5, with Jackson on the field, the Lions offense ranked 8th in EPA/play and 8th in success rate overall. They ranked in the top-10 in EPA and success rate in both the running game and through the air. From Week 6 to Week 9, with Jackson off of the field, Detroit’s offense ranked 20th in EPA/play and 14th in success rate. This unit saw the effectiveness of their ground attack and passing game both diminish significantly. Jared Goff and company led the NFL in offensive EPA/play and success rate in Week 10, with Jackson back on the field, but struggled mightily through the first three quarters against the Bears in Week 11 with Jackson back on the mend.
Green Bay’s defense could potentially be without a collection of their top talent on Thursday, which would make Jackson’s absence on the offensive line less noteworthy. However, it is undeniable at this point in the season that Detroit’s offense is firmly mediocre, rather than elite, when Jackson is not available at left guard.
Detroit defense hoping to replicate Week 4 success
When Green Bay and Detroit met in Week 4, the Lions defense pressured Jordan Love on 50.9% of his dropbacks, which was the best pressure rate of any team in the NFL that week. The Lions sacked Love five times and forced him into two turnovers in the contest.
Unfortunately for Detroit, their defense has not been able to replicate that pressure rate in any of their subsequent six games. In two games since coming out of their bye week, the Lions rank 17th out of 24 teams in defense pressure rate, among teams that have played in both Week 10 and Week 11.
Since Week 3, the Lions defense ranks 13th in EPA/play and 22nd in success rate. This unit has been even worse across the last month, ranking 31st in EPA/play and 31st in success rate since Week 7. Jordan Love and the Packers hardly present a formidable opponent in this matchup, but porous defenses typically find a way to help out bad offenses more times than the reverse is true. The Lions are more vulnerable in this matchup than is discernible on the surface.
Packers vs. Lions – Picks & Predictions
Trends bettors should have little trouble deciding which team to trust in this spot, thanks to the work done by Brandon Anderson earlier this week. According to Anderson, the Lions are 8-3 ATS (73%) on Thanksgiving since 2012. Non-Dallas favorites on Thanksgiving are 29-9 ATS (76.6%) and Non-Dallas favorites of at least seven points are 12-2 ATS (86%). Factor in a deluge of Green Bay injuries on a short week and Detroit on the spread seems easier than a Brotherly Shove, correct?
Well, the football read here paints a slightly less obvious picture. Across their last four games, the Lions defense ranks 31st in EPA/play and 31st in success rate. Detroit’s offense has also been tremendously mediocre this season when left guard Jonah Jackson is not on the field. Both of these teams are flawed, making the team favored by eight points overvalued in this spot. Detroit should be able to find a way to win this contest, but we might get a more competitive game than many people are anticipating.
PICK: Packers +8 (-110, Fanatics Sportsbook)