Packers vs. Lions Betting Odds, Prediction, & Pick

Packers quarterback Love

Packers vs. Lions Odds

Packers Odds +3
Lions Odds -3
Over/Under 51.5
Date Thursday, December 5
Time 8:15 PM ET
TV Prime Video

Week 14 of the NFL regular season will begin with a Thursday Night Football matchup between the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions from Ford Field. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video.

Ahead of kickoff, oddsmakers have priced the Lions as 3-point home favorites on the spread. The total is set at 51.5 points.

Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks.

Matt LaFleur has been one of the most profitable coaches in the NFL late in the season during his career. According to Evan Abrams of The Action Network, LaFleur is 18-2 SU and 11-9 ATS in December, including 4-0 SU as an underdog. This is a good trends spot for Jared Goff as well, however. Goff is 15-6 ATS against the NFC North – the 2nd best mark of any quarterback in the last 20 years, behind only Aaron Rodgers.

Green Bay Packers Preview

Doubs ruled OUT – Who will step up?

WR Romeo Doubs has been ruled out with a concussion and will miss his 2nd consecutive game for the Packers. On Thanksgiving, without Doubs, WR Christian Watson saw the biggest uptick in playing time, seeing the field for a team-high 51 snaps and running a team-high 27 routes. Watson was Green Bay’s primary deep threat against the Dolphins, with a 24.5 aDOT. No other Green Bay receiver had higher than a 10.7 aDOT in that matchup.

WR Jayden Reed didn’t see his role change much with Doubs inactive, which was not terribly surprising. Doubs has played ~90% of his snaps out wide in 2024, whereas Reed has lined up primarily in the slot for the Packers.

The larger question for this offense is ball security. Since returning from injury in Week 4, Jordan Love has thrown a league-high 10 interceptions. Tonight, he will have to contend with an aggressive Detroit defense, which has the 3rd-most interceptions of any defense in the league this fall.

Green Bay defense missing key contributors

LB Edgerrin Cooper, CB Jaire Alexander, and CB Corey Ballentine have each been ruled out for this evening’s divisional affair against the Lions. Cooper is Green Bay’s No. 6 tackler this season, despite playing fewer than 30 snaps in each of the team’s first 4 games. He was the team’s 2nd round pick this past summer out of Texas A&M. Since Week 5, the Packers defense ranks 10th in EPA/play.

Alexander, when healthy, is one of the truly premier lockdown cornerbacks in the NFL. Through 13 weeks this season, he ranks 11th out of 109 qualified cornerbacks in coverage grade, per PFF. Since Alexander last played meaningful snaps in Week 8, Green Bay’s pass defense ranks only 16th in EPA/play and 28th in success rate. They are vulnerable through the air in this matchup.

Detroit Lions Preview

What to expect from Goff, Lions offense

The most notable injury news for Detroit’s offense ahead of kickoff on Thursday is the absence of starting LT Taylor Decker. Decker is one of the league’s best players at his position, ranking in the top half of PFF grading as both a pass blocker and run blocker.

Still, this Lions offense is good enough to put up points without him. Decker missed the team’s Week 10 game against the Texans, but Detroit still managed 26 points despite Goff having a season-worst 5 interceptions. Detroit’s offense is likely to suffer from some efficiency issues in some regard, but they still have enough explosive playmakers to be capable of going toe-to-toe with their opponent in this spot.

Injuries piling up for Detroit defense

Entering play on Thursday, Detroit’s defense has EDGE Aidan Hutchinson, EDGE Marcus Davenport, LB Alex Anzalone, LB Malcolm Rodriguez, CB Ennis Rakestraw, and S Ifeatu Melifonwu on injured reserve. Tonight, the Lions will also be without 3 members of their defensive line – Levi Onwuzurike, Josh Paschal, and DJ Reader.

This unit faces an uphill battle tonight against a Green Bay offense that ranks 7th in EPA/play since Love returned from injury in Week 4.

Packers vs. Lions Prediction

Thursday Night Football games often have a lot of variance associated with them due to the short week. However, this is a rare spot in which both teams are playing on regular rest, with Green Bay and Detroit both having played on Thanksgiving.

Though there is some concern for Detroit’s offense, playing without starting LT Taylor Decker, they still have a high-powered offense with no shortage of capable weapons. Decker’s absence is also offset by the fact that Green Bay will be down multiple defensive starters, including star CB Jaire Alexander. Jared Goff and company should be able to move the ball well in this spot.

On the other side of this matchup, Detroit’s defense has been absolutely ravaged by injuries. Jordan Love has the 6th-highest aDOT among starting quarterbacks since returning to the field in Week 4 and should have no hesitations pushing the ball downfield in this matchup against a Detroit defense that plays a fair amount of man coverage.

This NFC North battle has the potential to turn into a shootout.

PICK: Over 51.5 (-108, DraftKings)

Image Credit: Getty Images

About the Author

nickgalaida
Nick Galaida (nickgalaida)

A failed high school pitcher, Nick Galaida discovered that he has a higher aptitude for analyzing and writing about sports than he does playing them. To his friends, he is better known as “The Commish.” When he’s not organizing a fantasy league, placing a bet, or writing an article, he’s probably nose-deep in a book—further illustrating the point that his niche in this world is as a nerd rather than an athlete. Follow Nick on Twitter – @CommishFilmRoom